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November 1985, Vol.
108, No.
11
The economic outlook to 1995:
new assumptions and projections
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its projections of the U.S. economy to 1995.1 The new projections, with 1984 as the base year, approximate or parallel the previous projections, which were based in 1982.
Once again, the focus is on the moderate-growth projection, characterized by strong productivity and investment growth, a declining unemployment rate, and a real annual rate of growth in gross national product (GNP) of 2.9 percent between 1984 and 1995. Two alternatives to the moderate-growth projection have also been developed: (1) higher productivity-lower unemployment (high-growth), and (2) lower productivity-higher unemployment (low-growth). (For presentation simplicity these are labeled, particularly in the tables, as high, moderate, and low.) The two alternatives, discussed later in the article, are designed to provide a range of economic responses to a given policy mix for those measures of economic performance which most affect the industrial and occupational employment projections. Projected GNP growth for 1984-95 ranges between 2.2 percent for the low-growth alternative to 3.8 percent for the high. Other alternatives, designed to examine the sensitivity of the projections to selected policy variations, are currently being explored.
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1 For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter, "The 1995 labor force: a second look," Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 3-10; Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty W. Su, "Economic outlook for the 1990's; three scenarios for economic growth," Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 11-23; Valerie A. Personick, "The job outlook through 1995: industry output and employment projections" Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 24-36; George T. Silvestri, John M. Lukasiewicz, and Marcus E. Einstein, "Occupational employment projections through 1995," Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 37-49; and Richard W. Riche, Daniel E. Hecker, and John U. Burgan, "High technology today and tomorrow: a small slice of the employment pie," Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 50-58; also Employment Projections for 1995, Bulletin 2197 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1984).
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