Services Freight Shipment for 1997
Submitted To
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Prepared By
MacroSys Research and
Technology
888 17th
Street, N.W., Suite 312
Washington , DC 20006
Table of Contents
1. Definition of the Commodity Flow Data Gap
1.2 Commodities involved in the data gap
1.3 Establishments involved in the data gap
2. Differences between 1997 and 2002 CFS
1. Definition of the Commodity Flow Data Gap
1.1 General Description
The 1997 CFS covers shipment of commodities originating from establishments in mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, non-store retailers (electronic shopping and mail-order houses), warehousing and storage, and corporate, subsidiary and regional managing offices.
The survey does not cover shipments originating from most of the establishments involved in services industries. The missing services industries are finance and insurance; real estate, rental and leasing; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative and support, and waste management and remediation services; education services; health care and social assistance; arts, entertainment and recreation; accommodation and food services; other services (e.g., repair and maintenance, personal and laundry, religious, etc); and public administration. Also, the CFS does not include management of companies and enterprises services with the exception of corporate subsidiary and regional managing offices.
1.2 Commodities involved in the data gap
The data gap affects all types of SCTG commodities.
1.3 Establishments involved in the data gap
The data gap includes establishments involved in the provision of different types of services to the general public, business, and the government. Included are establishments:
- producing and distributing information and cultural products,
- providing financial transactions and facilitating financial transactions,
- renting, leasing of tangible or intangible assets,
- performing professional, scientific, and technical activities for others,
- holding the securities of (or other equity interests in) companies and enterprises for the purpose of owning a controlling interest or influencing management decisions,
- performing routine support activities for the day-to-day operations of other organizations,
- providing instruction and training,
- providing health care and social assistance for individuals,
- operating facilities or providing services to meet different cultural, entertainment, and recreational interests,
- providing lodging and/or preparing meals, snacks, and beverages for immediate consumption,
- repairing equipment and machinery, and promoting or administering religious activities.
- administering and managing federal, state and local government programs.
The following two and three-digit NAICS services industries are not covered by the CFS:
52 Finance and Insurance
521 Monetary Authorities - Central Bank
522 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
523 Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
525 Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
531 Real Estate
532 Rental and Leasing Services
533 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
55 Management of Companies and Enterprises
551 Management of Companies and Enterprises (excluding 551114 corporate, subsidiary, and regional managing offices)
56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
561 Administrative and Support Services
562 Waste Management and Remediation Services
61 Educational Services
611 Educational Services
62 Health Care and Social Assistance
621 Ambulatory Health Care Services
622 Hospitals
623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
624 Social Assistance
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries
712 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions
713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
72 Accommodation and Food Services
721 Accommodation
722 Food Services and Drinking Places
81 Other Services (except Public Administration)
811 Repair and Maintenance
812 Personal and Laundry Services
813 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations
814 Private Households
92 Public Administration
921 Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support
922 Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities
923 Administration of Human Resource Programs
924 Administration of Environmental Quality Programs
925 Administration of Housing Programs, Urban Planning, and Community Development
926 Administration of Economic Programs
927 Space Research and Technology
928 National Security and International Affairs
2. Differences between 1997 and 2002 CFS
The 1997 CFS uses SIC system for selection of business establishments covered in the survey, whereas the 2002 CFS uses the NAICS classification system. Both the 1997 and 2002 CFS do not cover freight shipments originating from services industries, except corporate subsidiary and regional managing offices. Therefore, there is no difference between 1997 and 2002 CFS regarding the coverage of the service sector.
3. Data Sources
The Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS), the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) and U.S. input-output accounts are the principal data sources used for estimating freight shipment for the service industry.
Census Bureau's Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS)
The Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) provides statistics on the physical and operational characteristics of the nation's private and commercial truck population. The Census Bureau conducts this survey every five yeas with 2002 being the latest survey available. The survey covers all private and commercial trucks registered in the United States (for the 50 states and the District of Columbia).
This survey provides the physical and operational characteristics of trucks operating in the service sector. The physical and operational characteristics of trucks include fleet size, type of truck, physical characteristics, time operated, miles driven, fuel use and maintenance, empty and loaded truck weight, vehicle configuration, type of operator, and type of commodities hauled.
Commodity Flow Survey
The Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) produces data on the movement of goods in the United States. The survey provides data on commodities shipped, their value, weight, and mode of transportation; origin and destination of shipments of manufacturing, mining, wholesale and selected retail trade establishments.
Bureau of Economic Analysis's Input-Output Table
The input-output table shows the interdependence among the producers and the consumers in the U.S. economy. The make table of the input-output table shows the value in producers' prices of each commodity produced by each industry. The use table presents the value in producers' prices of each commodity used by each industry or by each final use, and the value added and the total intermediate inputs that are used by each industry to produce its output.
4. Method of Estimation
The 2002 freight shipment of services is estimated using information from the 2002 VIUS. We use truck loaded-miles, truck payload weight (loaded truck weight minus empty truck weight), miles per trip, and weighting factor of those trucks operating in the service sector to derive tons and ton-miles by type of transported commodity. The inbound freight shipments that originate from other industries (since they are covered by CFS) are excluded based on information on the type of home base from which the vehicle was operating. The freight shipments of for-hire trucks that serve the services sector, which are believed to be largely covered by CFS, are excluded from our estimates based on information on the type of operator of the trucks. However, the 1997 VIUS differ from the 2002 VIUS in terms of content, response options of questionnaires, and results (see Appendix 2 for a thorough discussion of the differences between the two surveys). Due to the differences, neither the methodology used for estimating the 2002 freight shipment can be implemented, nor can a new methodology be developed to derive comparable freight shipment estimates or CFS out-of-scope estimates using the 1997 VIUS. Therefore, we developed and implemented a new methodology of estimation as discussed below.
We followed the following steps for estimating tons, ton-miles and value of freight shipment for 1997:
First, we established an approximate growth rates in the value of freight shipment by SCTG commodity between 1997 and 2002. The growth rates in freight shipment are established using data from the input-output table of the United States.1 The value of commodities in the input-output (I-O) table is reported using the I-O commodity classification method. We converted the commodities and their corresponding values into SCTG commodity classification before calculating the growth rates of the resulting SCTG commodities (Appendix 1).
Second, we applied the growth rates to the 2002 value of freight shipment by SCTG commodity to derive the corresponding values for 1997.
Third, the 2002 ton-value ratios by SCTG commodity for the service industries are applied to the values of freight shipment by SCTG commodity to estimate the tons of freight shipment for 1997. Note that this method assumes that the ton-value ratios in 1997 are the same as that of 2002.
Fourth, the 2002 miles per shipment by SCTG commodity (by truck, estimated based on the 2002 VIUS data) are multiplied by their respective 1997 tons estimates to provide the 1997 ton-miles by SCTG commodity by truck for service industries. In this formula, the average miles per shipment in 1997 are assumed to be the same as that of 2002.
5. Quality of the Estimates
The quality of the estimates depends on the quality of data used, the methods of estimation and how closely our assumptions reflect the reality. The 2002 VIUS, the CFS, and the input-output account are the principal data sources. The data from these sources are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors, although we can not provide specific measures of these errors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses information from different sources to prepare the input-output account (including surveys, census, and administrative records), which are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors. Moreover, a number of assumptions are made in the estimation process and hence the resulting freight flow estimates depend on how closely our assumptions reflect the reality.
Reference
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Benchmark Input-Output Accounts," Interactive Access to Input-Output Accounts Data, available at http://www.bea.gov/ as of October 2006.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, and U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, "2002 Commodity Flow Survey," December 2004.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, and U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, "1997 Commodity Flow Survey," December 1999.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, "2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey," available at http://www.census.gov/, as of October 2006.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, "1997 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey," available at http://www.census.gov/, as of October 2006.
Appendix
Appendix 1. Correspondence between SCTG, and I-O Commodity Classification
| SCTG | I-O Commodity Classification | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Live animals and live fish | 1140 | Fish and other nonfarm animals |
| 02 | Cereal grains | 1110 | Crop products |
| 04 | Animal feed and products of animal origin, n.e.c. | 1120 | Animal products |
| 08 | Alcoholic beverages | 3121 | Beverage products |
| 09 | Tobacco products | 3122 | Tobacco products |
| 13 | Nonmetallic minerals, n.e.c. | 2123 | Nonmetallic minerals |
| 14 | Metallic ores and concentrates | 2122 | Metal ores |
| 15 | Coal | 2121 | Coal |
| 19 | Coal and petroleum products, n.e.c. | 3240 | Petroleum and coal products |
| 20 | Basic chemicals | 3251 | Basic chemicals |
| 21 | Pharmaceutical products | 3254 | Pharmaceutical and medicines |
| 23 | Chemical products and preparations, n.e.c. | 3255 | Paints, coatings, and adhesives |
| 3256 | Soaps, cleaning compounds, and toiletries | ||
| 3259 | Other chemical products | ||
| 24 | Plastics and rubber | 3260 | Plastics and rubber products |
| 26 | Wood products | 3210 | Wood products |
| 27 | Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard | 3221 | Pulp, paper, and paperboard |
| 28 | Paper or paperboard articles | 3222 | Converted paper products |
| 29 | Printed products | 3230 | Printed products |
| 5111 | Newspapers, books, and directories | ||
| 30 | Textiles, leather, and articles of textiles or leather | 3130 | Yarn, fabrics, and other textile mill products |
| 3140 | Nonapparel textile products | ||
| 3150 | Apparel | ||
| 3160 | Leather and allied products | ||
| 31 | Nonmetallic mineral products | 3270 | Nonmetallic mineral products |
| 32 | Base metal in primary or semi-finished forms and in finished basic shapes | 331A | Primary ferrous metal products |
| 331B | Primary nonferrous metal products | ||
| 33 | Articles of base metal | 3322 | Cutlery and hand tools |
| 332B | Other fabricated metal products | ||
| 3323 | Architectural and structural metal | ||
| 34 | Machinery | 3315 | Foundry products |
| 3321 | Forgings and stampings | ||
| 3324 | Bailers, tanks, and shipping containers | ||
| 3331 | Agricultural, construction and mining machinery | ||
| 3332 | Industrial machinery | ||
| 3333 | Commercial and service industry machinery | ||
| 3334 | HVAC and commercial refrigeration | ||
| 3335 | Metal working machinery | ||
| 3336 | Turbine and power transmission equipment | ||
| 3339 | Other general purpose machinery | ||
| 35 | Electronic and other electrical equipment and components, and office equipment | 334A | Audio, video, and communications equipment |
| 3341 | computer and peripheral equipment | ||
| 3344 | Semiconductors and electronic components | ||
| 3345 | Electronic instruments | ||
| 3346 | Magnetic media products | ||
| 3351 | Electric lighting equipment | ||
| 3352 | Household appliances | ||
| 3353 | Electrical equipment | ||
| 3359 | Other electrical equipment and components | ||
| 5112 | Software | ||
| 5120 | Motion pictures and sound recordings | ||
| 36 | Motorized and other vehicles (including parts) | 336A | Motor vehicle bodies, trailers, and parts |
| 3361 | Motor vehicles | ||
| 37 | Transportation equipment, n.e.c. | 336B | Other transportation equipment |
| 3364 | Aerospace products and parts | ||
| 38 | Precision instruments and apparatus | 3391 | Medical equipment and supplies |
| 39 | Furniture, mattresses and mattress supports, lamps, lighting fittings, and illuminated signs | 3370 | Furniture and related products |
| 40 | Miscellaneous manufactured products | 332A | Ordnance and accessories |
| 3399 | Other miscellaneous manufactured products | ||
| 41 | Waste and scrap | S004 | Scrap, used and secondhand goods |
| 43 | Mixed freight | 3110 | Food products |
Appendix 2 Differences between 1997 and 2002 VIUS
The 1997 and 2002 VIUS differ in several ways. However, our discussion in this document is confined to those that are relevant to our freight shipment estimation only. Those differences important to our purpose include (1) operator classification, (2) range of operation, (3) type of home base, (4) business classification, and (5) products carried.
1. Operator Classification
There is a limited comparability for operator classification due to significant changes in the categories and definitions.
1997 Operator Classification – operators are classified into business use, personal transportation, for-hire, daily rental and mixed operators.
Business use – refers to those trucks operated by and for a private business (including self employers) or a company.
For-hire – includes the following
Motor Carrier- operated by a company whose primary business is to provide transportation for a fee.
Owner-Operator – operated by an independent trucker who drives vehicles for himself or on a lease to a company.
Private Fleet – operated by and for a private business to transport company owned fright as a private carrier, and for-hire operator.
Daily rental (Not motor carrier) -
Personal transportation – includes trucks operated as a personal-use vehicle for pleasure driving, travel to work, carpool, etc.
Mixed – a mix of business and personal use
All operator groups are not comparable between 1997 and 2002 VIUS except rental and personal transportation, which are not important for our estimation.
2002 Operator Classification – operators are grouped into private, motor carrier, owner operator, rental, and personal transportation.
Private - carry own goods, or use truck for internal company business only.
Motor carrier - company owned trucks hired to carry other people's goods
Owner operator - independent truckers hired to carry other people's goods
Rental - daily and other short term
Personal transportation - vehicles operated for personal use, such as travel to work, carpooling, pleasure driving, etc.
2. Range of Operation
The rang of operation are not comparable due to the ambiguously defined upper and lower bounds of the ranges used for the 1997 VIUS. For example, a value of 100 miles in the 1997 VIUS could fall in the range of 50-100 or in the 100-200 range. The 2002 VIUS changed the categories by eliminating this overlap.
Range of
operation for 1997
Off
the road
Less than 50 miles
50-100 miles
100-200 miles
200-500 miles
Over 500 miles
Range of
operation for 2002
Off
the road
50 miles or less
51-100 miles
101-200 miles
201-500 miles
501 miles or more
3. Type of Home Base
The response options for the type of home base of the two surveys are different and hence they are not comparable.
Type of home base for 1997
- Residential or farm – this is a private residence.
- Terminal and administrative location – this is a location of private, business or commercial trucking operations, and administrative duties and functions (i.e., accounting, payroll, etc.) are conducted at this location.
- Terminal and Maintenance facilities for business, private or commercial freight transportation – this location is used for usual business operations of terminal facilities used by highway-type property carrying vehicles. Administrative duties and functions (i.e., accounting, payroll, etc.) are not conducted at this location.
- Corporate headquarter - only administrative duties and functions are conducted at this location. No usual business, private or commercial trucking operations, or related activities of that business are conducted.
Type of home base for 2002
- Company office/headquarters
- Terminal
- Distribution center
- Manufacturing plant
- Private residence (home, farm, etc.)
- Others
4. Business Classification
The 1997 VIUS response options for business are based on the SIC system, whereas the 2002 VIUS response option are based on the NAICS system. The 2002 VIUS has a broader and detail business classification than the 1997 CFS. For example, the 1997 VIUS covers a portion of the service industries.
The 1997 coverage of services is limited to the following sectors:
- Business and personal services – used to assist in such services as lodging operations, landscaping, repair (except plumbing, electrical work, etc), laundry, advertising, entertainment, etc.
- Utilities - used to assist in operation or service of public utilities (telephone, gas, electric, cable television, etc.)
The 2002 survey covers the following NAICS service industries:
- Utilities (includes electric power, natural gas, steam supply, water supply, and sewage removal)
- Arts, entertainment, or recreation services
- Accommodation or food services (for immediate consumption)
- Other services, including real estate, nonvehicle leasing or rental, educational, health care, social assistance, finance, insurance, professional, scientific, or technical services
5. Products Carried
These data are not comparable for two reasons. First, products in the 2002 VIUS are classified by SCTG; while products in the 1997 VIUS are loosely classified by SIC system. Second, the "percentages of miles carried" reported in the 2002 VIUS are allowed to add up more than 100 percent if multiple products were carried at the same time. The 1997 VIUS required all products carried to add up to 100 percent.
6. Results of the Two Surveys
The differences between the results of the 1997 and 2002 VIUS reflect not only the changes in truck inventory and uses, but also and to a large extent, the differences in the two surveys.
For example, the number of trucks, truck-miles, and average miles per truck estimates obtained from Census Bureau's published report shows a significant difference for the two years (table 1). The total number of trucks, truck-miles, and average miles per truck are greater for 1997 than that of 2002.
Table 1. Total Number of Trucks and Truck-Miles Excluding Pickups, Minivans, Other Light Vans, and Sport Utilities
| 1997 | 2002 | |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Trucks (thousands) | 5,665 | 5,521 |
| Truck-Miles (millions) | 157,367 | 145,173 |
| Average Miles per Truck (thousands) | 28 | 26 |
Source: Census Bureau, "2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey," Table 3a, available at http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec02tv-us.pdf, as of October 2006.
Similarly, a comparison of truck-miles by primary product carried shows that the 1997 truck-miles are greater than that of the 2002 (see table 2).
Table 2 Truck-Miles by Primary Product Carried for Selected Products (Excluding Pickups, Minivans, Other Light Vans, and Sport Utilities)
Millions
| 1997 | 2002 | |
|---|---|---|
| Live animals | 2,767 | 735 |
| Animal feed | 2,172 | 2,088 |
| Logs and other forest products | 3,705 | 1,149 |
| Lumber and fabricated wood products | 5,087 | 3,561 |
| Textile mill products | 4,944 | 1,538 |
| Petroleum | 171 | 131 |
| Plastics and/or rubber | 2,710 | 2,393 |
| Primary metal products | 4,747 | 2,881 |
| Machinery | 7,400 | 3,225 |
| Transportation equipment | 6,298 | 4,480 |
| Furniture or hardware | 3,278 | 2,043 |
| Mixed cargoes | 18,412 | 14,659 |
| Miscellaneous products of manufacturing | 5,196 | 4,008 |
| Hazardous waste (EPA manifest) | 466 | 190 |
| Hazardous waste (non-EPA manifest) | 83 | 2,647 |
| Recyclable products | 1,286 | 922 |
Source: Census Bureau, "Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey,"1997 and 2002, available at http://www.census.gov, as of October 2006.
In contrast, data obtained from the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Statistics report shows greater number of vehicles, truck-miles and average miles traveled by single unit 2-axle 6-tire and combination trucks for 2002 when compared to 1997 (see table 3).
Table 3. Total Number of Trucks and Truck-Miles for Single Unit 2-Axle 6-Tire or More and Combination Trucks2
| 1997 | 2002 | |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Trucks (thousands) | 7,083.3 | 8,171.4 |
| Truck-Miles (millions) | 191,477 | 226,504 |
| Average Miles per Truck (thousands) | 27.03 | 27.72 |
Source: FHWA, "Highway Statistics," Table VM-1
In view of greater economic activity in 2002 (e.g. real GDP grew by 15.5 percent between 1997 and 2002), the number of trucks and truck-miles are expected to be greater for 2002 than that of 1997. However, according to the above VIUS results, the truck-miles and number of trucks are greater for 1997.
Conclusion
Due to the above demonstrated significant differences between 1997 and 2002 VIUS, we cannot implement the 2002 methodology, which was used for preparing the 2002 Freight flow estimates, to derive the 1997 CFS out-of-scope freight shipments.
1 The
input-output table provides statistics on the value of commodities by type used
by the service industries. The growth in the value of these commodities between
1997 and 2002 are computed.
2 Other 2-Axle 4-Tire Vehicles which are not passenger
cars. These include vans, pickup trucks, and sport/utility vehicles.
Single-Unit 2-Axle 6-Tire or More Trucks on a single
frame with at least two axles and six tires.
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