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2004 Progress Report: A Coupled Measurement-Modeling Approach to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates: Application to Future Air Quality Assessments
EPA Grant Number: R831454Title: A Coupled Measurement-Modeling Approach to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates: Application to Future Air Quality Assessments
Investigators: Mao, Huiting , Chen, Ming , Griffin, Robert J. , Sive, Barkley , Talbot, Robert , Varner, Ruth
Institution: University of New Hampshire - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Bloomer, Bryan
Project Period: January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2006
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2005
Project Amount: $750,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003)
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Global Climate Change
Description:
Objective:This investigation is focused on the northeastern United States. The specific objectives of this research project are to: (1) predict changes in regional climate that subsequently influence natural biogenic emissions and air quality; (2) quantify modifications in plant ecosystem composition caused by changes in regional climate; (3) estimate regional biogenic emissions associated with a changing plant ecosystem; and (4) estimate aerosol loading, ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide (NOx), hydrocarbons, and atmospheric oxidative capacity as a function of a changing regional climate and plant ecosystem. Our results will quantify changes in the level of critical atmospheric species under future climate scenarios for 2050-2100 and provide a basis to assess their potential societal impacts on human health and key economic factors.
Progress Summary:During Year 1 of the project, a 3-week field campaign was conducted at the Duke Forest, North Carolina, Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage-I Research Facility (FACTS-I). For the first time, measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs), O3, NO, CO2, and organic and inorganic aerosols were conducted above the forest canopy under two CO2 environments: (1) present day (Ring 1, 370 ppmv), and (2) a future condition (Ring 2, 570 ppmv). Preliminary results show that levels of isoprene, light alkenes, and O3 were enhanced under elevated CO2 conditions. In contrast, monoterpene levels were highest under present day CO2 conditions. Differences in submicron particle mass concentrations were hardly discernable between the two environments. Under present day conditions, submicron organic aerosol mass exhibited a bimodal distribution with the dominant mode at 400 nm and a weak mode at 150 nm. These measurements suggest that under future climate conditions with enhanced mixing ratios of CO2, we can expect changes in biogenic emissions with an impact on air quality.
To complement the field measurements, our regional climate modeling system
was used to simulate the Northeast environment for present and future climate
conditions. Present day climate was reasonably reproduced and, under enhanced
CO2 simulations, showed warming at latitudes greater than 40 degrees north,
weakened wintertime westerlies, and intensification of summer cyclonic circulations
over the Northeast. Furthermore, a detailed analysis using the National Weather
Service National Centers for Environmental Protection reanalysis and U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency AIRNOW O3 data was performed for present day climate that
illustrates a close tie between (meteorological) map types and summertime O3
distribution across the Northeast. We also studied two pollution episodes in
summer 2004 using air quality modeling and observations from the University
of New Hampshire AIRMAP observing network (http://www.airmap.unh.edu 
) and the
International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation
(http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT ) field campaign. This included examination of
chemical evolution in urban plumes leaving the northeastern United States and
estimation of continental export of O3. Overall, we made significant progress
in understanding the factors and processes shaping regional climate, biogenic
emissions, and air quality to facilitate future climate and air quality assessments.
Together, our findings have important implications for future air quality and
considerations for developing emission control regulations and policies.
In Year 2 of the project we will focus on: (1) quantifying the impact of elevated CO2 on emission of biogenic VOCs and formation of secondary organic aerosols; (2) quantifying the effects of biogenic emissions under elevated CO2 on air quality; (3) examining meso-scale processes for present day and future climate and assessing changes in them; and (4) conducting an assessment of present and future air quality in the Northeast impacted by climatically induced changes in vegetation and biogenic emissions. Specifically, regional climate simulations will use a smaller domain with finer resolution to determine interannual variability in meso-scale processes. An ensemble of air quality episode simulations will be conducted using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model improved by the inclusion of a state-of-the-art organic aerosol module. Over the next few months we will complete data processing and archiving from the Duke Forest Campaign of 2004, and conduct analyses using the synthesized observational data set. A smaller-scale campaign at Duke Forest is scheduled for May-June 2006 to obtain detailed leaf- and branch-level emission fluxes of monoterpenes. These data are critical for facilitating model improvements. Several key findings have been identified, and papers will be prepared on these topics. No changes are expected in the project schedule during the next reporting period.
Journal Articles:No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 28 publications for this project
Supplemental Keywords:vegetation type, organic particulate matter, chemical
transport, O3 precursors, EPA Region 1, monitoring/modeling, aerosol formation,
air sampling, biogenic ozone precursors, climate models, climate variability,
climatic influence, ecological models,
,
Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Air Quality, Air Pollutants, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Sciences, particulate matter, Environmental Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, aerosols, meteorology, climate model, Global Climate Change, atmospheric models, airborne aerosols, BVOCs, ozone, atmospheric dispersion models, greenhouse gas, biogenic emission modeling, climatic influence, air quality models, climate models, aerosol formation, atmospheric chemistry, climate variability, environmental measurement, environmental stress, global change, atmospheric particulate matter, emissions monitoring, modeling, ambient air pollution, anthropogenic stress, atmospheric aerosol particles, ecological models, ambient aerosol, atmospheric transport, ecosystem models, greenhouse gases, air quality model
Relevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
2005 Progress Report
2006 Progress Report
2007 Progress Report
Final Report