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2001 Progress Report: Integrating Economic and Ecological Models Across Spatial Scales to Assess Aquatic Species Vulnerability to Timber Harvest and Land Use Change in Freshwater Streams of the Southeastern U.S.

EPA Grant Number: R828784
Title: Integrating Economic and Ecological Models Across Spatial Scales to Assess Aquatic Species Vulnerability to Timber Harvest and Land Use Change in Freshwater Streams of the Southeastern U.S.
Investigators: Schaberg, Rex , Abt, Robert , Cubbage, Fred , Halpin, Pat , Hershey, Anne
Institution: Duke University , North Carolina State University , University of North Carolina at Greensboro
Current Institution: Duke University , North Carolina State University , University of North Carolina at Greensboro
EPA Project Officer: Jones, Brandon
Project Period: May 1, 2001 through April 30, 2003 (Extended to March 31, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: May 1, 2001 through April 30, 2002
Project Amount: $399,658
RFA: Futures Research in Socio-Economics (2000)
Research Category: Economics and Decision Sciences

Description:

Objective:

The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop integrated ecological-economic models of potential imperilment for selected aquatic ecosystems in the Southeastern United States at multiple spatial scales; and (2) evaluate the role of forest extent, forest harvest, and forest management practices in the sustenance of selected aquatic ecosystems.

Progress Summary:

We have initiated three spatially nested analyses relating aquatic biodiversity to timber harvest within the Southeast that span from 1985 to 2000. Spatial scales include: (1) the 13-state Southeastern region; (2) a case study of North Carolina; and (3) a case study of selected subbasins within the Upper Tar-Pamlico watershed in the North Carolina Piedmont. We have assembled an interdisciplinary study team of aquatic biologists, foresters, landscape ecologists, forest economists, and resource policy analysts. At smaller scales, biological sciences form the cornerstone of our analysis program. At larger scales, resource economics, policy analysis, and landscape simulation predominate the models. We are building the models using an iterative approach so that information from preliminary efforts can be shared across scales and disciplines.

We have identified variables that are hypothesized as critical to sustaining aquatic ecosystems. We will continue to collect and evaluate datasets characterizing these variables, including: (1) trends in land use and urbanization; (2) census data; (3) degree of watershed alteration; (4) forest extent and distribution; (4) water quality and aquatic biodiversity data; and (5) local site characteristics and aquatic field data collected at our case study watershed. We have established data sharing and collaborative research relationships with a number of state and federal agencies, as well as with several environmental nongovernmental organizations. We have created an interdisciplinary database, which includes data relevant to the several spatial scales. We have benchmarked all datasets (U.S. Forest Service [USFS], Forest Industry and Analysis [FIA], U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Research Initiative, North Carolina Division of Water Quality, etc.) on 8-digit U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic unit code (HUC8) watersheds, with county-level data converted to watersheds where necessary. After watershed HUC8 standardization, each data layer undergoes a quality assurance validation, including checks for internal consistency, specification of appropriate spatial resolution, geographic information systems (GIS) reprojection (if required), and standardization of formatting and documentation.

We are evaluating the biodiversity status of selected aquatic systems and the associated forest condition at each scale level. We have found that the appropriate modeling tools and the precision of the analysis vary depending on the scaling unit. At the state and regional scales, we have conducted preliminary regression analyses to identify explanatory variables associated with established regional biodiversity metrics. We will develop predictive models to simulate possible future scenarios in forest extent and management to the year 2050, and associated metrics of potential future aquatic impacts.

At multi-county, state, and regional scales, we use economic projection data to drive trends in future ecological conditions. We have modified an existing timber economics model (SRTS) to characterize present USFS FIA timber inventory and harvest data (converted to watershed); and we are working to project these data into the future. At an intermediate scale, we have used spectral analysis and change analysis of 30-meter GIS satellite images of a multi-county area of the North Carolina Piedmont to locate forests on the landscape in our watershed study area, and to identify plots with loss of "greenness," indicating that forest harvest has occurred. At the watershed scale, we have collected preliminary survey data on benthic community structure, trophic linkages, and stream morphology. We also have conducted a preliminary statistical analysis of potential biological indicators of harvest impacts. These data augment existing North Carolina biomonitoring water quality data for the case study watershed in the upper Tar-Pamlico.

In the area of forest policy, we conducted a review and evaluation of pertinent forest management practices, with particular emphasis on riparian Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the Southeast, and initiated a detailed study of BMP activity in the area of our Piedmont case study. Within North Carolina, we have evaluated the impacts of changes in timber product trends and effects of technology changes associated with timber processing at high-capacity chip mills.

Future Activities:

During the fall and winter of 2002-2003, we will conclude the statistical analysis of our economic and biological data at both large and small scales. We will conclude an analysis of riparian BMP practices specific to our study in the NC Piedmont area. Subsequent focus will be to improve synergy among models, and to bridge differences in spatial scales and conceptual disciplines. We will use the results of the Southeastern region regression analysis to create a regional simulation model of relative aquatic biodiversity vulnerability among watersheds in response to forestry and landuse change. For our "small area" watershed model, using a combination of stream surveys, stable isotope analysis, and manipulative experiments, we will address the effects of forestry practices on stream trophic linkages, organic matter processing and transport, stream biodiversity, and community structure. The spatially explicit data developed from 30-m TM data on timber harvest will be compared with existing statistically based (FIA, NRI) datasets. We will explore the possibility of using GIS tools to provide these statistically based datasets of forest condition with a spatial footprint, which would make them more useful for environmental impact analysis.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 26 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

ecological risk assessment, assessing ecosystem vulnerability, integrated ecological assessment, interdisciplinary environmental modeling, aquatic, habitat, aquatic ecology, aquatic biodiversity, ecological effects, forest sustainability, best management practices, BMPs, riparian forests, stream sedimentation, woody debris recruitment, landscape models, land use change, remote sensing, geographic information system, GIS, GIS model, scaling, landscape scale, economic models, timber inventory projection, regression, ecosystem, indicators, Southeast. , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, Forestry, Regional/Scaling, Monitoring/Modeling, Economics, water quality, land use models, timber harevsting, model ecosystem effects, land use, multidisciplinary approach, spatial scale, aquatic species vulnerability, economic models, GIS, watersheds, ecological exposure, ecosystem assessment, integrated assessment, landscape patterns, economic assessment, integrated ecological assessment, multiscale assessment, aquatic ecology, foest management practices, ecological models, biodiversity, ecological effects, habitat
Relevant Websites:

http://www.env.duke.edu/scsf/ exit EPA

Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
Final Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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