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2002 Progress Report: Demographic Change in the New West: Exurban Development Around Nature Reserves

EPA Grant Number: R828786
Title: Demographic Change in the New West: Exurban Development Around Nature Reserves
Investigators: Hansen, Andrew , Maxwell, Bruce , Rasker, Ray
Institution: Montana State University
EPA Project Officer: Jones, Brandon
Project Period: May 1, 2001 through April 30, 2003 (Extended to April 30, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: May 1, 2002 through April 30, 2003
Project Amount: $400,000
RFA: Futures Research in Socio-Economics (2000)
Research Category: Economics and Decision Sciences

Description:

Objective:

The objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop a means by which to model and evaluate future rural development in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE); and (2) develop the spatially explicit Rural Development Model to simulate future patterns of rural development within the GYE.

Progress Summary:

Our first objective involves achieving a better understanding of which factors drive rural development. To complete this objective, we compiled a database of all rural home locations within the GYE. The statistical accuracy of these data was confirmed using aerial photographs. We have developed a suite of potential explanatory variables including biophysical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors. For each variable listed in the table, the data have been collected, formatted, and documented in a standardized manner. Each data layer must pass a quality assurance procedure consisting of checks for attribute inconsistencies, adequate spatial feature resolution, and reprojection (if necessary). Generalized linear models were used to explore which factors and combinations of factors were strongly correlated with growth at the town and section-level scale. This analysis showed strongest support for the model representing agricultural suitability, transportation and services, natural amenities, and encroaching development as the primary determinants of rural residential development across the GYE.

The second objective was to develop the spatially explicit Rural Development Model to simulate future patterns of rural development within the GYE. The model inputs and outputs were in ARC/INFO format, and the simulation algorithm was implemented using the object-oriented Java language. For model validation, we assessed the degree of similarity between the simulated and observed home densities during the 1990s for 25 percent of lands that previously had been excluded from the analyses. Of the 6,217 sections evaluated, the number of homes built during the 1990s was correctly predicted for 83 percent of the sections. Our predictions were correct to within plus or minus one home in 94 percent of the sections.

Future Activities:

Alternative future scenarios will be modeled by manipulating the input layers that act to attract and constrain growth in rural residential development. The specific manipulations are to be determined in workshops with land use planners and local government decisionmakers planned for September 24, 2003 and October 2, 2003. Our final analysis will focus on ecosystem vulnerability as indicated by the density of homes in proximity to the key habitats of native tree, shrub, and bird species that are most at risk of extinction. Vulnerability of these key habitats will be evaluated by quantifying home density in three zones of proximity to the habitats.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 20 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, rural development, land use change, geographic information system, GIS, GIS model. , Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, RFA, decision-making, Ecological Risk Assessment, Economics & Decision Making, Ecology and Ecosystems, Urban and Regional Planning, Economics, demographic, exurban development simulator, economic research, futures, ecological predictors, nature reserves, environmental policy, land use, changing environmental conditions, regression analysis, rural residential development, biodiversity option values
Relevant Websites:

http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~hansen/documents/personnel.html exit EPA

Progress and Final Reports:
2001 Progress Report
Original Abstract
Final Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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