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1998 Progress Report: The Influence of Global Climate Change on Mountain Water Resources

EPA Grant Number: R824803
Title: The Influence of Global Climate Change on Mountain Water Resources
Investigators: Leung, L Ruby , Neilson, Ronald P. , Waichler, Scott , Wigmosta, Mark
Current Investigators: Leung, L Ruby , Ghan, Steven J. , Neilson, Ronald P. , Waichler, Scott , Wigmosta, Mark
Institution: Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest Division
EPA Project Officer: Winner, Darrell
Project Period: October 1, 1995 through September 1, 1998
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1997 through September 1, 1998
Project Amount: $500,000
RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration

Description:

Objective:

The objective of this study is to estimate the sensitivity of hydrologic and ecologic systems to greenhouse warming in the Pacific Northwest.

Progress Summary:

To estimate the sensitivity of water resources and ecosystems to greenhouse warming, a modeling system consisting of a regional climate model (PNNL-RCM), a distributed hydrology model (DHSVM), and a vegetation model (MAPSS-BGC) has been significantly refined to improve the physical representation and computational efficiency for this study. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3) was used to simulate the climatological and 2xCO2 global climate conditions when driven by sea surface temperature and sea ice from observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulated 2xCO2 conditions. The global simulations were then used to drive PNNL-RCM over the Pacific Northwest to simulate the climate change. These simulations will be used to drive the hydrology and vegetation models.

Climate simulation results indicate that there is an average warming of about 2°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. The combined effects of surface temperature and precipitation changes are such that snow cover is reduced by up to 50% on average, causing large changes in the seasonal runoff. High spatial resolution (1.5 km) climate signals were generated by mapping the regional climate simulations from the subgrid elevation/ vegetation classes to geographical maps. Reductions in snow cover of 50-90% are found in areas near the snow line of the control simulation.

DHSVM has been evaluated by driving it with observed meteorology between 1989-95 over the American River watershed on the east side of the Cascades, and the Middle Fork Flathead watershed on the Northern Rockies in Montana. The simulated snowpack and streamflow generally compare well with observations. When DHSVM was driven by regional climate simulation driven by observed large scale conditions, agreement with observations is also quite well. This demonstrates the basic skill of the regional climate-hydrology modeling system in reproducing surface hydrology. Regional climate simulations driven by CCM3 for the climatological and 2xCO2 conditions are now being used to drive DHSVM to estimate the impacts of greenhouse warming on surface hydrology over those watersheds.

To study the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, a fully coupled hydrology-ecosystem model has been developed based on DHSVM and the generalized version of the biogeochemical model Biome-BGC and the biogeography model MAPSS. Our efforts during 1998 have been focused on model engineering. Differing and redundant modules and input data requirements of the three models have been reconciled.

Future Activities:

During 1999, we will complete our analysis of the sensitivity of hydrology and ecosystems to greenhouse warming in the Pacific Northwest. The distributed hydrology will be driven by the regional climate simulations of the present and 2xCO2 conditions. Simulations of the surface energy and water budgets will be analyzed. We will thoroughly test the coupled hydrology-vegetation model and drive it with the regional climate simulations to estimate the effects of climate change at the American River. Results will be analyzed and compared with estimates obtained from the regional climate model and DHSVM (without coupling to ecosystem). At least two journal papers will be prepared based on these results.


Journal Articles on this Report: 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other project views: All 17 publications 7 publications in selected types All 5 journal articles

Type Citation Project Document Sources
Journal Article Cole CA, Brooks RP. A comparison of the hydrologic characteristics of natural and created mainstem floodplain wetlands in Pennsylvania. Ecological Engineering, February 2000;14(3):221-231. R824803 (1998)
R824803 (Final)
R824905 (1999)
R824905 (Final)
R826110 (Final)
 not available
Journal Article Leung, L.R., M.S. Wigmosta, S.J. Ghan, D.J. Epstein, and L.W. Vail, 1996: Application of a subgrid orographic precipitation/surface hydrology scheme to a mountain watershed. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 1996;101(D8):12803-12817. R824803 (1998)
R824803 (Final)
 not available
Journal Article Leung, L.R., and S.J. Ghan, 1998b: Pacific Northwest climate sensitivity simulated by a regional climate model driven by a GCM. Part I: Control simulations. Journal of Climate. R824803 (1998)
R824803 (Final)
 not available
Journal Article Leung LR, Ghan SJ. Parameterizing subgrid orographic precipitation and surface cover in climate model. Monthly Weather Review 1998;126(12):3271-3232. R824803 (1998)
R824803 (Final)
 not available
Supplemental Keywords:

climate change, greenhouse warming, climate modeling, regional climate model, distributed hydrology model, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow, water resources, watersheds, Pacific Northwest. , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, exploratory research environmental biology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Pacific Northwest, Ecological Indicators, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Effects - Human Health, EPA Region, Hydrology, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, CO2 concentrations, meteorology, carbon dioxide, Global Climate Change, hydrologic models, snowpack, surface water storage reservoir, climate change impact, groundwater, mountain water resources, vegetation models, environmental monitoring, watersheds, climate models, Region 8, ecological exposure, climate variability, Region 10, global change, Northern Rockies, global vegetation models, green house gas concentrations, regional hydrologic vulnerability, water resources, ecological effects, ecosystem models, global warming
Relevant Websites:

Regional Climate Model, Simulation Approach, Results:
http://www.pnl.gov/atmos_sciences/as_clim3.html#Mountain Water exit EPA

Distributed Hydrology Model:
http://etd.pnl.gov:2080/watershed/ exit EPA
http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~nijssen/docs/DHSVM/ exit EPA

Vegetation Models:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/abstracts/MAPSS.html exit EPA
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/abstracts/BGC.html exit EPA
http://www.fsl.orst.edu/~waichler/frameset1.html exit EPA

Snowpack Changes (A quicktime movie):
http://www.pnl.gov/atmos_sciences/snowmovie.html exit EPA

Washington State Senate Hearing - Presentation:
http://www.pnl.gov/atmos_sciences/Lrl/index.html exit EPA

Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
Final Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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