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1998 Progress Report: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate An Integrated Assessment of the Susquehanna River Basin
EPA Grant Number: R824807Title: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate An Integrated Assessment of the Susquehanna River Basin
Investigators: Yarnal, Brent , Crane, Robert , Fisher, Ann , Lynch, James
Institution: Pennsylvania State University - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Winner, Darrell
Project Period: November 1, 1995 through October 1, 1998
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 1997 through October 1, 1998
Project Amount: $460,000
RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Global Climate Change
Description:
Objective:The research seeks to address two broad questions: (1) how vulnerable is the society of the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) to climate-induced changes in water supply? (2) What adaptations can reduce this vulnerability? A targeted integrated regional assessment is used to answer these questions. The research emphasizes the vulnerability of community water systems (CWS) to contemporary weather and climate extremes and to future climate change. Progress Summary:
Year 1 research activities concentrated on compiling a database and conducting a series of short-term collaborative studies. Each of these collaborative studies was based on recent major weather and climate events in the SRB: the drought of summer 1995, the January 1996 flood, and the severe thunderstorms and flashfloods of summer 1996. Significant advances were made in climate downscaling, which are necessary to develop scenarios of future climate change in Year 3 and beyond. One important result outcome of these studies was the recognition that community water systems (CWS) in the SRB may be vulnerable to weather and climate extremes.
Consequently, activities focused on CWS, including case studies developed in Year 2. Results from these case studies suggested that isolated, very small CWS are extremely sensitive to weather and climate variation. The highly fragmented organizational structure of the region's CWS and the large number of small systems led us to hypothesize that most are also vulnerable to climate change.
Year 3 extended the research to all CWS throughout the SRB. There were three essential features of Year 3 research. First, working with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, team members improved the state's drought monitoring system, which is fundamental to CWS management. Second, elements of this monitoring system were used to form the basis of a theoretical model addressing the vulnerability of CWS to drought. This model will be generalizable to many sectors that are sensitive to climate variation and change. Third, we surveyed approximately 400 CWS managers in the SRB to determine the way that these managers respond to contemporary climate variation and perceive climate change. This survey, which is still being processed and analyzed, is crucial because it makes it possible to develop strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate variation and change.
Future Activities:Year 4 will see completion of the project. There will be three significant products at the end of the year. The first will be the results of the CWS water managers survey. The second will be the theoretical model of drought vulnerability. The third BB and most important BB product will be a book that synthesizes the findings of this research project. This book will be called Local Water Supply and Climate: Vulnerability of Community Water Systems to Climate Variation and Change in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin and will be published by Ashgate Publishing.
Journal Articles on this Report: 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 28 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 5 journal articles |
| Type | Citation | ||
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Crane RG, Hewitson BC. Doubled CO2 precipitation changes for the Susquehanna Basin: down-scaling from the GENESIS general circulation model. International Journal of Climatology 1998;65-76. |
R824807 (1998) |
not available |
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Neff R, Chang HJ, Knight CG, Najjar RG, Yarnal B, Walker HA. Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Research 2000;14(3):207-218. |
R824807 (1998) |
not available |
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O'Connor RE, Yarnal B, Neff R, Bord R, Wiefek N, Reenock C, et al. Weather and climate extremes, climate change, and planning - Views of community water system managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1999;35(6):1411-1419. |
R824807 (1998) |
not available |
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Polsky C, Allard J, Curritt N, Crane R, Yarnal B. The Mid-Atlantic Region and its climate: past, present, and future. Climate Research 2000;14(3):161-173. |
R824807 (1998) |
not available |
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Yarnal B, Johnson DL, Frakes BJ, Bowles GI, Pascale P. The flood of '96 and its socioeconomic impacts in the Susquehanna River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1997;33(6):1299-1312. |
R824807 (1998) |
not available |
Water, Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Water & Watershed, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Atmospheric Sciences, EPA Region, Hydrology, Watersheds, State, Global Climate Change, hydrologic models, socioeconomic indicators, Susquehanna River Basin, watershed, Pennsylvania, climatic models, Region 3, mountain water resources, economic models, environmental monitoring, integrated assessments, climate models, climate variability, PA
Relevant Websites:
http://www.essc.psu.edu/srbia
http://www.geog.psu.edu/gcimpacts
http://www.essc.psu.edu/cira
http://www.essc.psu.edu/ccimar
http://www.essc.psu.edu/mara/
Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
Final Report