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1998 Progress Report: Vulnerability of Water Resources to Global Climate Change in the Agricultural Midwest Ecological, Economic and Regulatory Aspects
EPA Grant Number: R824804Title: Vulnerability of Water Resources to Global Climate Change in the Agricultural Midwest Ecological, Economic and Regulatory Aspects
Investigators: Eheart, J. Wayland , Herricks, Edwin E.
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
EPA Project Officer: Winner, Darrell
Project Period: October 1, 1995 through September 1, 1998 (Extended to September 30, 1998)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1997 through September 1, 1998
Project Amount: $380,000
RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Description:
Objective:To assess the vulnerability of Midwestern water resources to the direct effects and indirect (through possible increased irrigation usage) effects of climate change. Progress Summary:
Since our last progress report, we have:
1) completed work in determining altered low flow statistics (1Q10 and 7Q10) under several climate change scenarios
2) completed tasks associated with estimation of the frequency of low streamflow limit violations caused by adoption of irrigation under several climate change scenarios
3) completed tasks associated with estimation of the frequency of water quality standards violations caused by adoption of irrigation under several climate change scenarios
4) completed fisheries habitat modeling using PHABSIM for target watersheds/reaches
5) continued work to determine the effectiveness of alternative withdrawal regulations to maintain low streamflow standards
6) developed and calibrated fish population models for the Sangamon River
7) initiated integrative analysis of water withdrawal and water quality regulations on natural resources impact using long term modeling of fisheries populations.
Future Activities:We intend to complete the work in 5) above, i.e., assessing the efficacy of various types of water withdrawal restrictions. We are currently considering two types: fixed flow permits and fractional flow permits. Among the issues we are exploring is whether instabilities will ensue from linking allowable withdrawals to extant streamflow, and, if so, how withdrawal restrictions may be modified to prevent such instabilities. We are presently using fish population models to evaluate natural resources impacts of hydrologic variability, and to evaluate the effects of regulatory structures (7). Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 14 publications for this project
Supplemental Keywords:Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water, Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Water & Watershed, exploratory research environmental biology, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecological Indicators, Ecological Effects - Human Health, EPA Region, Hydrology, Watersheds, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, precipitation patterns, risk assessment, toxic environmental contaminants, alternative urbanization scenarios, drinking water supplies, Global Climate Change, hydrologic models, precipitation, socioeconomic indicators, watershed, crop production, farming, habitat diversity, climatic models, fish habitat, land use, policy making, farm income, toxics, economic models, environmental monitoring, Region 5, climate models, agricultural watershed, availability of water resources, climate variability, land and water resources, Midwestern agriculture, urban growth, water resources, streamflow sensitivity
Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
Final Report