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1998 Progress Report: Regional Streamflow Sensitivity to Climate Change in an Urbanizing Environment

EPA Grant Number: R824806
Title: Regional Streamflow Sensitivity to Climate Change in an Urbanizing Environment
Investigators: DeWalle, David R. , Swistock, Bryan R.
Institution: Pennsylvania State University - Main Campus
EPA Project Officer: Winner, Darrell
Project Period: October 1, 1995 through September 30, 1998 (Extended to September 30, 1999)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 1998
Project Amount: $120,000
RFA: Regional Hydrologic Vulnerability to Global Climate Change (1995)
Research Category: Global Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration

Description:

Objective:

To determine the regional sensitivity of streamflow to climate change scenarios and population growth on selected basins in the United States.

Progress Summary:

Statistical models have been developed to predict streamflow response to changing climate and population density for the period 1940-1990 on 39 urbanizing and 21 rural watersheds in four regions (NE, NC, S, and W) of the U. S. Predictions were conducted for 10 climate change scenarios (temperature changes of +2 or +4?C and precipitation changes of 0, +/-10, or +/-20%) with and without the effects of population growth. Six streamflow variables ranging from peak to low flow rates and annual and four seasonal time periods were modeled. Population density on the basins in 1980 was also related to percentage urban/suburban lands on all watersheds.

Results show that urbanization generally increased streamflow on the basins studied, a change which could either aggravate or completely offset effects of assumed climate changes. Projected response of streamflow to climate change was highly dependent on the specific climate change scenario assumed, especially changes in precipitation. Overall, basins in the West region showed the greatest sensitivity of mean annual flow to climate change, while those in the South region showed the least. Effects of other watershed changes, such as urbanization, must also be considered along with climate change when predicting long-term trends in streamflow on a basin.

Future Activities:

Publications summarizing the results of the research will be written during the remainder of the project.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 9 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

Water, Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Water & Watershed, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, EPA Region, Hydrology, Watersheds, precipitation patterns, alternative urbanization scenarios, drinking water supplies, hydrologic models, watershed, climatic models, land use, Region 3, climate models, climate variability, land and water resources, region 4, Region 10, regional hydrologic vulnerability, urban growth, water resources, urbanizing watersheds, ecosystem models, streamflow sensitivity

Progress and Final Reports:
Original Abstract
Final Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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