TInews Archive #980904115506
Date: | Fri, 4 Sep 1998 11:55:06 -0400 (EST) |
From: | TInews Announcement |
To: | tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov |
Subject: | TInews: Canadian Arrivals Decline Sharply Through June 1998; U.S. Resident Travel to Canada Soars |
=== TINEWS ===================================
An information service from Tourism Industries
http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/
U.S. International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
9/4/98
Canadian Arrivals Decline Sharply Through June 1998; U.S. Resident Travel to Canada Soars
Contact: | Tourism Industries office |
E-mail: | tinet_info@ita.doc.gov |
Web: | http://tinet.ita.doc.gov |
Phone: | (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887 |
For the first six months of 1998, Canadian travel to the U.S. was down
more than 7 percent, with 6.6 million travelers of one or more nights,
compared to 7.1 million for the same period of 1997. Conversely, U.S.
resident travel to Canada rose by more tha n 9 percent in the first six
months of 1998, according to Statistics Canada. During this period, 5.7
million trips were made, compared to 5.2 million from January to June
1997.
The continuing decline of the Canadian dollar, which was trading at $1.54
to the U.S. dollar at the time of this analysis, is anticipated to fuel
the loss in Canadian arrivals throughout 1998. Summer travel is likely to
be significantly curtailed to both short- and long-distance destinations
due in part to the exchange rate but also compounded by the month-long
triple-digit heatwave in July experienced in the south and west, the
Florida fires in June, and damage and flooding incurred by Hurricane
Bonnie along the popular North Carolina coast.
The outlook for the Canadian dollar is not optimistic. Projections in
July called for the Canadian dollar to fall to $1.60 to the U.S. dollar by
September. This now seems plausible.
Should the year finish at the current rates of change for Canadian
arrivals to the U.S., down 7 percent, and U.S. travel to Canada, up 9
percent, we could witness the first traveler deficit with Canada since
1987. That is, U.S. resident travelers to Cana da could outnumber
arrivals to the U.S. from Canada by about a half million. This in turn
could impact the balance of trade between the two countries and lower the
overall international travel surplus.
On the positive side, Canada remains the number one international tourism
market for the U.S., with over 15 million visitors recorded annually.
Growth continues in the highly lucrative air travel segment of the
Canadian market to the U.S. where per perso n spending topped $100 a day
in 1997.
JUNE 1998 ARRIVALS FROM CANADA TO THE U.S.
Arrivals from Canada dropped sharply for the month of June, registering
1.0 million, 12 percent lower compared to the same month of 1997. The
negative performance for the month of June was reflected by steep declines
in all modes of transportation to the U.S., except air travel. Auto
travel was particularly hard hit with trips of one nights' duration
decreasing nearly 15 percent while longer trips were harder hit, losing
almost 19 percent, for a net decline in total auto travel of 18 percent.
Undoubted ly the drop in the buying power of the Canadian dollar had an
adverse impact on discretionary travel.
Air traffic, which now comprises one-quarter of all Canadian arrivals of
one or more nights, was up 2 percent. Nearly 297,000 trips by air from
Canada were recorded in June.
Bus travel posted a 12 percent decline, while train travel was down 9
percent. The "pedestrian/other" category dropped 9 percent as well.
JUNE 1998 U.S. RESIDENT TRAVEL TO CANADA
U.S. resident travel to Canada for the month of June continued its upward
climb. Travel of one or more nights by all modes garnered another 9
percent gain, making five out of six months positive in 1998.
Air travel posted a notable increase, up more than 18 percent, to 425,000
trips in June.
Auto travel of a single nights' duration rose by 6 percent. The rise in
longer duration trips was even greater, up more than 8 percent, for a
cumulative increase of 8 percent in auto travel of one or more nights to
Canada.
Rail travel to Canada by U.S. residents posted a 31 percent increase in
travel volume compared to the same period of the previous year. Bus and
pedestrian/other modes of entry to Canada from the U.S. both registered
declines in June, down 4 and 3 percent, respectively. However, these
three modes generate very small numbers of travelers and are subject to
wide shifts in performance.
TRAVEL TO CANADA FROM OTHER WORLD REGIONS
Interestingly enough, arrivals to Canada from other countries and world
regions were in decline during the first six months of 1998. Excluding
U.S. arrivals, travel to Canada from the rest of the world was down 9
percent through June 1998.
Through the second quarter, Asian arrivals were down 26 percent. South
Korea's decline for the first six months was down two-thirds or 62 percent
compared to the same period of 1997. Several Asian countries registered
declines of 30-40 percent. Cumula tively, through June, European travel
to Canada was down 1 percent. More specifically, Germany was down 3
percent while the UK was up 6 percent.
With the summer travel season just getting underway in June, the cheaper
Canadian dollar may lure travelers to Canada during the remainder of the
year, softening the current decline for Canada from overseas markets.
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Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 1860
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: tinet_info@ita.doc.gov
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