TInews Archive #20031021.html
Date: |
Tues, 21 Oct 2003 |
From: | TInews Announcement <announce@tinet.ita.doc.gov> |
To: | TInews Announcement <tiannounce@tinet.ita.doc.gov> |
Subject: |
Revised Forecast for 2003-2007 International Arrivals
Issued
|
=== TINEWS ===================================
October 21, 2003
Revised Forecast for 2003-2007 International Arrivals Issued
Contact: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
E-mail: tinet_info@ita.doc.gov
Web: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov
Phone: (202) 482-0140, Fax: (202) 482-2887
The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) issued a revised forecast
for international arrivals to the United States at the TIA Marketing Outlook
Forum Conference in Austin, Texas today. To see the press release for
the forecast, please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/recovery/forecastpress_10212003.html.
In addition, OTTI has posted several tables that provide the new projections
for international travel to the country for 2003-2007. To see the tables,
please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/f-2000-99-001/index.html
Some of the Highlights include:
The arrivals forecast indicates that for the third straight year, the
United States will see a decline in arrivals. Total international arrivals
to the country peaked in 2000 at 50.9 million visitors. In 2001and 2002
total international travel to the country declined to 44.9 million, and
41.9 million, respectively. The new forecast for 2003 shows that 40.1
million travelers should visit the United States. This is down 4 percent
from 2002.
The declines in 2001 and 2002 have been greater for the United States
than for world international arrivals. According to new data just released
from the World Tourism Organization, the United States’ market share
for total international arrivals worldwide has slipped to 6.0 percent.
This is down dramatically since the 1992 peak USA market share of 9.4
percent. To see the world arrivals and receipts market share table for
1984-2002, please go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreachpages/inbound.world_us_intl_arrivals.html
While 2003 will register declining numbers to the country, the forecast
for 2004-2007 show that arrivals will see an average annual five percent
growth rate for 2004-2006, and slow slightly to a 4 percent growth rate
in 2007. The fastest growth in arrivals between 2002 and 2007 among the
30 plus forecasted countries will be from: India, up 49 percent; Austria,
up 45 percent; Denmark, up 35 percent; Finland, up 34 percent, and the
United Kingdom, up 33 percent. As you review the forecast for arrivals,
you will see numerous shifts in the top markets that generate visitors
to this country. The growth rates vary each year, as certain markets will
recover more quickly than others. It is hoped this data will assist the
industry to capitalize on the markets that show promise for the future.
Of course, growth rates alone do not define a strategy. To develop a
strategic plan for attracting visitors, this country, and the destinations
within also need to take into consideration the number of visitors generated
from a market, their spending, and other key traveler characteristics
among other things. This forecast along with additional data from OTTI
in conjunction with assistance from the Commercial Service staff in the
United States and abroad, offers the industry the tools to provide the
international traveler with a satisfying experience in the U.S. Please
visit the OTTI web site to learn more about the Commerce products and
services that may assist you. Go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/
This forecast was produced using an econometric model which considers
historical arrivals to the U.S, economic performance indices, political
environments, in-market conditions and programs, and other influencing
factors (such as SARS) for 30 plus individual countries and all world
regions. To learn more about the forecast program, go to: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/programs/forecast/index.html
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Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce, Room 7025
Washington, D.C. 20230
(202) 482-0140, fax: (202) 482-2887
e-mail: tinet_info@ita.doc.gov
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