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2006 Progress Report: An Integrated Framework for Estimating Long-Term Mobile Source Emissions Linking Land Use, Transportation and Economic Behavior
EPA Grant Number: R831450Title: An Integrated Framework for Estimating Long-Term Mobile Source Emissions Linking Land Use, Transportation and Economic Behavior
Investigators: Harrington, Winston , Nelson, Peter , Safirova, Elena , Shih, Jhih-Shyang
Institution: Resources for the Future
EPA Project Officer: Bloomer, Bryan
Project Period: January 1, 2004 through July 31, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2006 through July 31, 2007
Project Amount: $749,080
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003)
Research Category: Global Climate Change
Description:
Objective:To develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of an urban economy that links land use, transportation and other economic decisions at the firm and household levels and use that model to project mobile source emissions over a 50-year time horizon under a variety of economic and technological assumptions.
Progress Summary:In years 1 and 2 of the project we developed and calibrated two complex behavioral simulation models of land use, travel behavior and economic activity in the Washington, DC region. These models are WASHINGTON-START, a strategic regional transport model, and LUSTRE, a regional economic activity model that explicitly incorporates land use decision-making and regional travel behavior, using WASHINGTON-START as its transportation submodel. During the third year of the project we have accomplished the following tasks.
- We developed a preliminary model that treats households as agents (rather than workers as in LUSTRE 1). This model has 3 zones and is calibrated to the Washington, DC region. We have determined that a full 40-zone household model comparable to LUSTRE 1 would exceed the capacity of our existing computer system at RFF. In the near future we will compare small versions of household-based and worker-based models to determine whether and how adding households affects results. If important differences emerge, we will proceed with the building of a full household-based model. To do so, we will have to simplify other elements of the model to gain the necessary dimensionality.
- We integrated the RELU-WASHINGTON-START activity model with emission factor model and an emission factor model we build in Year 2, drawing on the MOBILE 6 inventory model.
- We have used WASHINGTON-START and LUSTRE to examine a range of policy issues of importance in the Washington, DC region. These policy issues included (i) analysis of various road pricing proposals, (ii) examination of the value to the region of the main public transit systems, the MetroRail and MetroBus systems, (iii) examination of the effect of road pricing measures on mobile source emissions.
Activities in Progress
4. We have begun sensitivity analyses of selected model parameters and functional specifications, such as the following:
- Changing the scaling factors determining the sensitivity of the discrete choices in the model to changes in income and relative prices.
- Changing the nesting structure of the employment decision. That is, separating the decision to work or not from the decision on where to work. Originally a choice of unemployment was just another “destination.”
5. We began empirical tests of model results, focusing on model estimates of various elasticities. Elasticities are not among the parameters required to calibrate the model, but we can generate estimates of various elasticities by perturbing the model and observing its response. It will be reassuring if our elasticity values match up well with empirical results reported in the literature. So far, examination of some transportation related elasticities using only the WASHINGTON-START model match up well.
Future Activities:- Completion of sensitivity analyses of LUSTRE and WASHINGTON-START.
- Completion of empirical tests of LUSTRE and WASHINGTON-START.
- Documentation of LUSTRE and WASHINGTON-START models, to be placed on the RFF website.
- “Congestion Pricing: Five Urban Legends,” RFF First Wednesday Seminar, March 7, 2007.
- “Modeling Growth in the Nation’s Capital: A Work in Progress.” A workshop to be held at RFF to introduce LUSTRE to the local land use and environmental policy community. Presentations on LUSTRE, infill development policies, and the Intercounty Connector (ICC).
- “Spatial Development and Energy Consumption.” To be presented at the Conference on Urban and Regional Policy and Its Effects. Sponsored by George Washington University, the Brookings Institution, and the Urban Institute, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, March 30, 2007.
- “A Simulation of the Effects of Transportation Demand Management Policies on Motor Vehicle Emissions.” Presentation at the Transportation, Land Use and Air Quality Conference, July 2007.
Journal Articles on this Report: 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 42 publications | 6 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
| Type | Citation | ||
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Safirova E, Gillingham K, Houde S. Measuring marginal congestion costs of urban transportation: do networks matter? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 2007;41(8):734-749. |
R831450 (2006) R831450 (Final) |
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air, air quality, analytical, behavioral models, CGE modeling, clean technologies, consumer behavior, cost-benefit analysis, decision making, economic behavior, economics, emissions, environmental regulation, future emissions, general equilibrium, global change, greenhouse gas, greenhouse gases, housing location, industrial location, infrastructure, land use, land use modeling, land use policies, long run, long-run effects, long term, long-term impact, long-term effects, mobile source, mobile sources, modeling, nitrogen oxides, ozone, particulate matter, particulates, preferences, public policy, residential location, sensitivity analysis, social science, socioeconomic, smart growth, technological change, traffic congestion, transportation, transportation infrastructure, transportation modeling, travel demand, travel pattern, uncertainty, urban development, vehicle emissions, vehicle miles traveled, vehicle ownership, VMT, VOC, Mid-Atlantic, Maryland (MD), Virginia (VA), District of Columbia (DC),
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Air, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Air Quality, climate change, Ecological Risk Assessment, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, Environmental Chemistry, Economics, mobile sources, human activities, emissions measurement, engine exhaust, Global Climate Change, land use, air quality models, environmental monitoring, vehicle emissions
Progress and Final Reports:
2004 Progress Report
2005 Progress Report
Original Abstract
Final Report