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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for September and the Daily Treasury Statements for October | November 5, 1998 |
Fiscal year 1998 ended with a total surplus of $70 billion, an on-budget
deficit of $29 billion, and an off-budget surplus of $99 billion for Social
Security and the Postal Service. Incorporating legislative actions taken
by the Congress since July, the current outlook for fiscal year 1999 is
for a total budget surplus of $63 billion, an on-budget deficit of $54
billion, and an off-budget surplus of $117 billion.
SEPTEMBER RESULTSa (In billions of dollars) |
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Sept. Estimate |
Sept. Actual |
Difference | ||||
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Receipts | 180.7 | 180.9 | 0.2 | |||
Outlays | 141.8 | 142.7 | 0.9 | |||
Surplus | 38.9 | 38.2 | -0.7 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
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The actual September surplus of $38.2 billion reported by the Treasury
Department was $0.7 billion below CBO's estimate, which was based on daily
statements for the month, largely because Defense Department outlays were
greater than expected.
FISCAL YEAR 1998 RESULTS (In billions of dollars) |
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1997 Actual |
1998 Actual |
Change | |||||
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Total Receipts | 1,579 | 1,721 | 142 | ||||
Total Outlays | 1,601 | 1,651 | 50 | ||||
Total Deficit (-) or Surplus | -22 | 70 | 92 | ||||
On-budget deficit (-) | -103 | -29 | 74 | ||||
Off-budget surplus | 81 | 99 | 18 | ||||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
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Total budget receipts in fiscal year 1998 exceeded total budget outlays
by $70 billion. That figure includes an off-budget surplus of $99 billion
(for Social Security and the Postal Service) and an on-budget deficit of
$29 billion.
FISCAL YEAR 1998 RECEIPTSa (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Source | 1997 Actual |
1998 Actual |
Percentage Change |
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Individual Income | 737 | 829 | 12.4 | ||||
Corporate Income | 182 | 189 | 3.5 | ||||
Social Insurance | 539 | 572 | 6.0 | ||||
Other | 120 | 132 | 10.4 | ||||
Total | 1,579 | 1,721 | 9.0 | ||||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||||
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Total budget receipts for fiscal year 1998 were $1,721 billion, which was
$142 billion, or 9.0 percent, above the level of 1997 receipts. As a share
of GDP, total receipts reached 20.5 percent in 1998, compared with 19.8
percent a year ago.
FISCAL YEAR 1998 OUTLAYSa (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Category | 1997 Actual |
1998 Actual |
Percentage Change |
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Defense--Military | 258 | 256 | -0.8 | ||||
Social Security Benefits | 358 | 372 | 3.8 | ||||
Medicare and Medicaid | 305 | 314 | 2.9 | ||||
Net Interest on the Public Debt | 251 | 250 | -0.3 | ||||
Other | 428 | 459 | 7.3 | ||||
Total | 1,601 | 1,651 | 3.2 | ||||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||||
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Total budget outlays in fiscal year 1998 were $1,651 billion, which
was $50 billion, or 3.2 percent, above the level of 1997 outlays. As a
percentage of GDP, total outlays were 19.7 percent in 1998, compared with
20.1 percent a year ago.
COMPARISON WITH CBO'S JULY ESTIMATES (In billions of dollars) |
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CBO July Estimate |
1998 Actual |
Difference | ||||||
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Receipts | ||||||||
Individual income | 821 | 829 | 7 | |||||
Corporate income | 190 | 189 | -1 | |||||
Social insurance | 577 | 572 | -5 | |||||
Other | 129 | 132 | 3 | |||||
Total | 1,717 | 1,721 | 4 | |||||
Outlays | ||||||||
Defense--Military | 256 | 256 | a | |||||
Social Security benefits | 372 | 372 | a | |||||
Medicare and Medicaid | 317 | 314 | -3 | |||||
Net interest on the public debt | 250 | 250 | a | |||||
Other | 460 | 459 | -1 | |||||
Total | 1,654 | 1,651 | -3 | |||||
Total Surplus | 63 | 70 | 7 | |||||
On-budget deficit (-) | -41 | -29 | 12 | |||||
Off-budget surplus | 104 | 99 | -5 | |||||
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||||
a. Less than $500 million. | ||||||||
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Total receipts for 1998 were $4 billion higher than CBO projected in July. Withheld individual income and employment taxes were $4.5 billion higher than CBO projected, and excise taxes were $2.4 billion higher. Nonwithheld income and employment taxes, however, were $2.5 billion lower than projected, and corporate income taxes were $1.5 billion lower. The $5 billion shortfall in social insurance contributions from CBO's July projection results from an unexpected accounting adjustment by the Treasury to correct past allocations of withheld income and employment taxes between individual income taxes and Social Security taxes.
Total outlays for 1998 were $3 billion lower than CBO projected in July,
with the shortfall largely resulting from lower-than-expected spending
for Medicare.
CBO ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBERa (In billions of dollars) |
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October 1997 |
October 1998 |
Estimated Change |
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Receipts | 115 | 120 | 5 | |||
Outlays | 151 | 151 | b | |||
Deficit (-) | -36 | -31 | 5 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
b. Less than $500 million. | ||||||
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Total outlays in October 1998 are estimated to exceed total receipts
by about $31 billion, resulting in a deficit that is $5 billion smaller
than the one recorded for the same month a year ago. CBO's estimates for
the monthly total deficit or surplus are usually within $2 billion of the
final results reported later in the month by the Department of the Treasury.
FISCAL YEAR 1999 OUTLOOK (In billions of dollars) |
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CBO July Estimate |
Legislative Actions |
Current Estimate |
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Total Receipts | 1,801 | a | 1,801 | ||||
Total Outlays | 1,721 | 17 | 1,738 | ||||
Total Surplus | 80 | -17 | 63 | ||||
On-budget deficit (-) | -37 | -17 | -54 | ||||
Off-budget surplus | 117 | a | 117 | ||||
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
a. Less than $500 million. | |||||||
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Legislation enacted since CBO's July projections add an estimated $17 billion
to 1999 outlays, reducing the projected total surplus to $63 billion and
raising the on-budget deficit to $54 billion. The outlook for the off-budget
surplus remains at $117 billion.
Prepared by James Blum and Richard Kasten. |