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2006 Progress Report: Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science
EPA Grant Number: R829402Center: Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science
Center Director: Stein, Michael
Title: Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science
Investigators: Stein, Michael
Institution: University of Chicago
EPA Project Officer: Smith, Bernice
Project Period: March 12, 2002 through March 11, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 12, 2005 through March 11, 2006
Project Amount: $6,250,049
RFA: Environmental Statistics Center (2001)
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Environmental Statistics
Description:
Objective:As we near the end of our funding cycle, our attention turns increasingly to completing the many research efforts involved in our five projects. These efforts are described in the reports for the individual projects. Here, we focus on those issues related to the Center as a whole.
Progress Summary:We have supported six projects to date, one of which is no longer supported, and the research that has been done within each of them is described in the individual project reports. We describe here activities that cut across the projects.
Students and Postdoctoral Researchers
One of the main objectives of the Center is to educate a new generation of environmental statisticians and statistically sophisticated environmental scientists. Our postdoctoral program is central to this effort. During the 2005–2006 academic year, we had five postdoctoral researchers. One of them, Mathieu Vrac, has recently taken up a Research Associate position at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement in France, where he will continue his work on statistical issues in climatology and environmental science. The four other postdoctoral researchers will remain through the summer of 2007, so that we will continue to have a vital and active postdoctoral program throughout Year 5 of our funding.
One Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science (CISES) graduate student, Xiaofeng Shao, completed his Ph.D. thesis entitled “Statistical Evaluation of Multiresolution Model Output and Spectral Analysis for Nonlinear Time Series.” He has recently begun a tenure-track position in the Department of Statistics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he will have the opportunity to interact with the CISES participants at that institution.
Two doctoral students are currently working on the project, “Integrating Numerical Models and Monitoring Data”: Chae Young Lim and Darongsae Kwon. Chava Zibman works on the project “Air Quality and Reported Asthma Incidence in Illinois.” The project “The Detection of a Recovery in Stratospheric and Total Ozone” has several graduate students associated with it. Yue Li and Junjie Xia are both students at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Airong Cai, from the Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Chicago, has been working on this project since the summer of 2003 and now also works on the downscaling project. Although she works on CISES projects, her funding has come from another source.
In addition to Airong Cai, Anne Hertel from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign also works on “Statistical Applications to Downscaling Climate Projections.” Ole Shelton and Pauline Fujita are both working on doctoral degrees in the Department of Ecology and Evolution and work on “Model Choice, Stochasticity and Ecological Complexity.” Li Ma, currently a PhD student in the Stanford Statistics department, received a Master's degree in Statistics from the University of Chicago for his work with the ecology group on correcting for sampling bias in a herring survey.
Seminars
CISES holds occasional seminars on Thursday afternoons during the academic year, with the majority of speakers coming from outside CISES. Speakers include a broad range of statisticians and other scientists who work on statistical or environmental problems (commonly both) of interest to the Center. The seminars are organized by the postdoctoral researchers, providing them with an opportunity to familiarize themselves with researchers working in environmental statistics and related areas. These seminars draw a diverse audience and are highly interactive, resulting in an intellectually stimulating experience for both speakers and the audience.
Meetings
In April of 2006, we held our annual meeting with our Project Officer and two members of our Advisory Committee. All five CISES postdoctoral researchers and most of the graduate students supported by CISES spoke at the meeting. After consulting with our Project Officer and Advisory Committee, we agreed that this would be our last annual meeting. We would like to thank all of Project Officers and Advisory Committee members for their participation and feedback in these annual meetings.
As of this writing, we are getting ready to hold a 3-day meeting on Multivariate Environmetrics, cosponsored by CISES and the Environmetrics Section of the American Statistical Association. We expect this meeting to be at least as successful as our first highly successful meeting on Computational Environmetrics in 2004. Marc Genton deserves much credit for his excellent work as the chair of the organizing committee.
Computing
The presence of CISES’ independent computing facility, including most critically, Alexis Zubrow, our Senior Programmer/Analyst, is one of the Center’s most valuable assets. In addition to his work as systems administrator and assisting CISES members with their research, he has actively engaged in several of our research projects. Much of what we do would not have been possible without Alexis’ presence.
The CISES computing environment centers around two Linux clusters. The primary beowulf cluster consists of four dual process Linux boxes with 2 gigabytes of memory each. The four nodes are networked via gigabit ethernet. Recently, a data server has been added to the cluster, expanding the available space to 1.75 terabytes and significantly reducing the load from the computational nodes. The second cluster is used by the research associates for testing and data visualization. The computing environment is set up to facilitate both the co-Principle Investigators’ and the research associates’ research goals. In addition to the two clusters, we maintain one Windows machine and two dual boot machines (Windows and Linux).
Results to Date
Specific research accomplishments are described in the individual project reports.
Publications are listed separately with individual projects. All CISES technical reports can be found on our Web site at http://galton.uchicago.edu/~cises/research/tr.html.
Future Activities:Our funding period officially ends in March of 2007. To accommodate the academic cycle, we intend to keep going at least through the summer of 2007, and we have already indicated informally to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) our intention to request a no-cost extension. The highest priorities for funding after March 2007 will be for postdoctoral researchers, students, and staff. Only after these needs are all met will summer funding of principle investigators in 2007 be considered.
Journal Articles: 37 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other center views: | All 102 publications | 59 publications in selected types | All 37 journal articles |
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Anderes EB, Stein ML. Estimating deformations of isotropic Gaussian random fields on the plane. Annals of Statistics 2008;36(2):719-741. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Chay K, Dobkin C, Greenstone M. The Clean Air Act of 1970 and adult mortality. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2003;27(3):279-300. |
R829402C004 (2002) R829402C004 (Final) |
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Currie J, Neidell M. Air pollution and infant health: what can we learn from California’s recent experience? The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2005;120(3):1003-1030. |
R829402C004 (Final) |
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Dwyer G, Morris WF. Resource-dependent dispersal and the speed of biological invasions. The American Naturalist 2006;167(2):165-176. |
R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Elderd BD, Doak DF. Comparing the direct and community-mediated effects of disturbance on plant population dynamics: flooding, herbivory, and Mimulus guttatus. Journal of Ecology 2006;94(3):656-669. |
R829402C005 (2004) R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Elderd BD, Dukic VM, Dwyer G. Uncertainty in predictions of disease spread and public health responses to bioterrorism and emerging diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2006;103(42):15693-15697. |
R829402C005 (2004) R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Eshel G, Bernstein J. Relationship between large-scale atmospheric states, subsidence, static stability and ground-level ozone in Illinois, USA. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 2006;171(1-4):111-133. |
R829402C003 (2002) R829402C003 (Final) |
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Guillas S, Stein ML, Wuebbles DJ, Xia J. Using chemistry transport modeling in statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone trends from observations. Journal of Geophysical Research 2004;109(D22303), doi:10.1029/2004JD005049. |
R829402C001 (2004) R829402C001 (Final) R829402C002 (2004) |
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Guillas S, Tiao GC, Wuebbles DJ, Zubrow A. Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2006;6(2):525-537. |
R829402C001 (2004) R829402C001 (Final) |
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Im HK, Stein ML, Kotamarthi VR. A new approach to scenario analysis using simplified chemical transport models. Journal of Geophysical Research 2005;110(D24205), doi:10.1029/2005JD006417. |
R829402C002 (2006) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Im HK, Stein ML, Zhu Z. Semiparametric estimation of spectral density with irregular observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2007;102(478):726-735. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Jun M, Stein ML. Statistical comparison of observed and CMAQ modeled daily sulfate levels. Atmospheric Environment 2004;38(27):4427-4436. |
R829402C002 (2004) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Jun M, Stein ML. An approach to producing space-time covariance functions on spheres. Technometrics 2007;49(4):468-479. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Kusumo HT, Pfister CA, Wootton JT. Small-scale genetic structure in the sea palm Postelsia palmaeformis Ruprecht (Phaeophyceae). Marine Biology 2006;149(4):731-742. |
R829402C005 (2006) |
not available |
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Loh JM, Stein ML. Spatial bootstrap with increasing observations in a fixed domain. Statistica Sinica 2008;18(2):667-688. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Miller AJ, Cai A, Tiao G, Wuebbles DJ, Flynn LE, Yang S-K, Weatherhead EC, Fioletov V, Petropavlovskikh I, Meng X-L, Guillas S, Nagatani RM, Reinsel GC. Examination of ozonesonde data for trends and trend changes incorporating solar and Arctic oscillation signals. Journal of Geophysical Research 2006;111(D13305), doi:10.1029/2005JD006684. |
R829402C001 (2004) R829402C001 (2006) R829402C001 (Final) |
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Naureckas ET, Dukic V, Bao X, Rathouz P. Short-acting β-agonist prescription fills as a marker for asthma morbidity. Chest 2005;128(2):602-608. |
R829402C003 (2004) R829402C003 (2006) R829402C003 (Final) |
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Neidell MJ. Air pollution, health, and socio-economic status: the effect of outdoor air quality on childhood asthma. Journal of Health Economics 2004;23(6):1209-1236. |
R829402C004 (Final) |
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Pfister CA, Wang M. Beyond size: matrix projection models for populations where size is an incomplete descriptor. Ecology 2005;86(10):2673-2683. |
R829402C005 (2004) R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Reinsel GC, Miller AJ, Weatherhead EC, Flynn LE, Nagatani RM, Tiao GC, Wuebbles DJ. Trend analysis of total ozone data for turnaround and dynamical contributions. Journal of Geophysical Research 2005;110(D16306), doi:10.1029/2004JD004662. |
R829402C001 (2004) R829402C001 (Final) |
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Shao X, Stein ML. Statistical conditional simulation of a multiresolution numerical air quality model. Journal of Geophysical Research 2006;111(D15211), doi:10.1029/2005JD007037. |
R829402 (2006) R829402C002 (2006) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Shao X, Stein M, Ching J. Statistical comparisons of methods for interpolating the output of a numerical air quality model. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2007;137(7):2277-2293. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Stein ML. Space-time covariance functions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2005;100(469):310-321. |
R829402C002 (2002) R829402C002 (2004) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Stein ML. Statistical methods for regular monitoring data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 2005;67(5):667-687. |
R829402C002 (2004) R829402C002 (2006) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Stein ML. Seasonal variations in the spatial-temporal dependence of total column ozone. Environmetrics 2007;18(1):71-86. |
R829402C002 (2006) R829402C002 (Final) |
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Stein ML. Spatial variation of total column ozone on a global scale. Annals of Applied Statistics 2007;1(1):191-210. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Stein ML. A modeling approach for large spatial datasets. Journal of the Korean Statistical Society 2008;37(1):3-10. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Sun L, Wang M. An algorithm for a decomposition of weighted digraphs: with applications to life cycle analysis in ecology. Journal of Mathematical Biology 2007;54(2):199-226. |
R829402C005 (2004) R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA. Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 2006;79(3-4):185-211. |
R829402C006 (2006) R829402C006 (Final) |
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Tsao JI, Wootton JT, Bunikis J, Luna MG, Fish D, Barbour AG. An ecological approach to preventing human infection: vaccinating wild mouse reservoirs intervenes in the Lyme disease cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2004;101(52):18159-18164. |
R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Vrac M, Stein ML, Hayhoe K, Liang X-Z. A general method for validating statistical downscaling methods under future climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 2007;34(L18701), doi:10.1029/2007GL030295. |
R829402C006 (Final) R830963 (Final) |
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Vrac M, Hayhoe K, Stein M. Identification and intermodel comparison of seasonal circulation patterns over North America. International Journal of Climatology 2007;27(5):603-620. |
R829402C006 (Final) |
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Vrac M, Stein M, Hayhoe K. Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing. Climate Research 2007;34(3):169-184. |
R829402C006 (Final) |
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Wootton JT. Field parameterization and experimental test of the neutral theory of biodiversity. Nature 2005;433(7023):309-312 (letter). |
R829402C005 (2006) R829402C005 (Final) |
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Zhang Z, Beletsky D, Schwab DJ, Stein ML. Assimilation of current measurements into a circulation model of Lake Michigan. Water Resources Research 2007;43(W11407), doi:10.1029/2006WR005818. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Zhang Z, Switzer P. Stochastic space-time regional rainfall modeling adapted to historical rain gauge data. Water Resources Research 2007;43(W03441), doi:10.1029/2005WR004654. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Zubrow A, Chen L, Kotamarthi VR. EAKF-CMAQ: Introduction and evaluation of a data assimilation for CMAQ based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Journal of Geophysical Research 2008;113(D09302), doi:10.1029/2007JD009267. |
R829402C002 (Final) |
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Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Environmental Statistics, Health Risk Assessment, Ecological Risk Assessment, risk assessment, ambient airborne particulate matter, environmental indicators, health risk analysis, biostatistics, statistical methods, air pollution, data analysis, environmental risks, infant mortality
Relevant Websites:
http://galton.uchicago.edu/~cises/research/tr.html
Progress and Final Reports:
2004 Progress Report
Original Abstract
Final Report
Subprojects under this Center:
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R829402C001 Detection of a Recovery in Stratospheric and Total Ozone
R829402C002 Integrating Numerical Models and Monitoring Data
R829402C003 Air Quality and Reported Asthma Incidence in Illinois
R829402C004 Quasi-Experimental Evidence on How Airborne Particulates Affect Human Health
R829402C005 Model Choice Stochasticity, and Ecological Complexity
R829402C006 Statistical Approaches to Detection and Downscaling of Climate Variability and Change