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2006 Progress Report: Detection of a Recovery in Stratospheric and Total Ozone

EPA Grant Number: R829402C001
Subproject: this is subproject number 001 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R829402
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
Center: Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science
Center Director: Stein, Michael
Title: Detection of a Recovery in Stratospheric and Total Ozone
Investigators: Tiao, George , Guillas, Serge , Meng, Xiao-Li , Weatherhead, Betsy , Wuebbles, Donald J.
Current Investigators: Tiao, George , Fioletov, Vitali , Flynn, Lawrence , Guillas, Serge , Hayhoe, Katharine , Kerr, James , Meng, Xiao-Li , Miller, Alvin , Petropavlovskikh, Irina , Reinsel, Gregory , Weatherhead, Elizabeth , Wuebbles, Donald J. , Yang, Shi-Keng
Institution: University of Chicago , University of Colorado , University of Illinois at Urbana
Current Institution: Environment Canada , Harvard University , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , University of Chicago , University of Colorado , University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , University of Wisconsin - Madison
EPA Project Officer: Smith, Bernice
Project Period: March 12, 2002 through March 11, 2007
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 12, 2006 through March 11, 2007
RFA: Environmental Statistics Center (2001)
Research Category: Environmental Statistics , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration

Description:

Progress Summary:

Over the last 12 months, research has been conducted on the analysis of profile ozonesonde data described below. We have continued to work with a team of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), notably Jim Miller, L. E. Flynn and S. K. Yang, and at the World Ozone and UV Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) in Canada, on many aspects of the research. This team of statisticians and atmospheric scientists, sometimes called the “ Tiger Team,” has met in the last 12 months three times in Chicago and once at Georgia Institute of Technology for research discussions. Bella Maranion, of the Global Programs Division, EPA, attended some of these meetings. We expect that she will continue to actively participate in our group discussion meetings.

Examination of Ozonesonde Data for Trends and Trend Changes Incorporating Solar and Arctic Oscillation Signals

Preliminary versions were given in the last two annual reports. This work has been substantially revised, and a paper has now been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. A revised summary is given below. The authors are: Alvin J. Miller, Airong Cai, George Tiao, Donald J. Wuebbles, Lawrence E. Flynn, Shi-Keng Yang, Elizabeth C. Weatherhead, Vitali Fioletov, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Xiao-Li Meng, Serge Guillas, Ronald M. Nagatani (retired), and Gregory C. Reinsel (deceased).

Summary. One major question that arises with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent Conventions is our ability to determine that an ozone “recovery” is in process. Toward this, we have utilized a statistical model, suggested by Reinsel, et al. (2002), that utilizes the idea of a trend and a trend-change at a specific time and applied it to 12 ozonesonde stations in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The lower stratosphere, in particular, is of significance, as this is where the ozone concentration is at a maximum and also where heterogeneous ozone losses have been noted. This statistical methodology suffers, however, from the ambiguities of having to select a specific time for the ozone trend to change and the fact that the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic aerosols impacted the ozone amount. Within this paper, we analyze the ozonesonde station data utilizing the above model, but examine the statistical stability of the computed results by allowing the point of inflection to change from 1995 through 2000 and also by excluding varying amounts of data from the post-Pinatubo period. The results indicate that, while the impacts of deleting data and changing the inflection point are non-trivial, the overall results are consistent in that there has been a major change in the ozone trend in the time-frame of 1996, and that a reasonable scenario is to utilize a change-point in 1996 and exclude 2 years of data after the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. In addition, we include a term for the Arctic Oscillation within the statistical model and demonstrate that it is statistically significant.


Journal Articles on this Report: 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Other subproject views: All 26 publications 4 publications in selected types All 4 journal articles
Other center views: All 102 publications 59 publications in selected types All 37 journal articles

Type Citation Sub Project Document Sources
Journal Article Miller AJ, Cai A, Tiao G, Wuebbles DJ, Flynn LE, Yang S-K, Weatherhead EC, Fioletov V, Petropavlovskikh I, Meng X-L, Guillas S, Nagatani RM, Reinsel GC. Examination of ozonesonde data for trends and trend changes incorporating solar and Arctic oscillation signals. Journal of Geophysical Research 2006;111(D13305), doi:10.1029/2005JD006684. R829402C001 (2004)
R829402C001 (2006)
R829402C001 (Final)
  • Abstract: AGU Abstract
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    • Supplemental Keywords:

    , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, Health, RFA, PHYSICAL ASPECTS, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Engineering, Chemistry, & Physics, Risk Assessments, decision-making, Environmental Statistics, Great Lakes, Applied Math & Statistics, Health Risk Assessment, Physical Processes, Ecological Risk Assessment, Environmental Engineering, Ecological Effects - Human Health, EPA Region, particulate matter, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, risk assessment, trend monitoring, ozone , chemical transport models, particulate, risk management, stochastic models, statistical methodology, air quality, computer models, ecological risk, ecosystem health, environmental indicators, ozone, chemical transport, health risk analysis, human health risk, monitoring, policy making, statistical models, particulates, regulations, statistical methods, watersheds, Region 5, air pollution, stratospheric ozone, data models, exposure, water, chemical transport modeling, ecological models, ecological effects, ecological health, human exposure
    Relevant Websites:

    http://galton.uchicago.edu/~cises/ exit EPA

    Progress and Final Reports:
    2002 Progress Report
    2004 Progress Report
    Original Abstract
    Final Report


    Main Center Abstract and Reports:
    R829402    Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science

    Subprojects under this Center: (EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
    R829402C001 Detection of a Recovery in Stratospheric and Total Ozone
    R829402C002 Integrating Numerical Models and Monitoring Data
    R829402C003 Air Quality and Reported Asthma Incidence in Illinois
    R829402C004 Quasi-Experimental Evidence on How Airborne Particulates Affect Human Health
    R829402C005 Model Choice Stochasticity, and Ecological Complexity
    R829402C006 Statistical Approaches to Detection and Downscaling of Climate Variability and Change

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    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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