Employment Projections: 2006-16 Summary
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 07-1847 http://www.bls.gov/emp/ For release: 10:00 A.M. EST Media contact: 691-5902 Tuesday, December 4, 2007 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 2006-16 Projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and economic growth covering the 2006-16 decade were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor. The 10-year projections are widely used in career guidance, in education and training program planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The pro- jections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a 60-year tradition of providing information to individuals who are making education and training choices, entering the job market, or changing careers. Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs, or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. This slowdown in the growth of the labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force for other reasons--called replacement needs--is projected to create a significant number of additional job openings. Industry Employment --Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Service-providing indus- tries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016. Professional and business services and health care and social assist- ance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in total employment. (See table 1.) --Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufac- turing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to 13.1 percent of total employment. (See table 1.) --The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment growth--led by management, scientific, and technical con- sulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical hospitals--all are in the service-providing sector. (See table 2.) --Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing. (See table 3.) - 2 - Occupational Employment --Professional and related occupations and service occupations--2 major occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges--are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs, accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16 decade. (See table 4.) --A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated in a small number of detailed occupations. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new jobs. (See table 5.) The 30 occupations with the largest numeric declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from declining occupations. (See table 8.) --Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 5.) --Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 6.) --Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations. Of the 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million jobs in 2016. (See table 7.) --Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over the decade. (See table 4.) Education and Training Categories --For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 5.) --For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor’s or higher degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training. (See table 6.) --On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occu- pations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth and net replacements. (See table 7.) --For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most signi- ficant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 8.) --The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016. (See table 9.) - 3 - Labor Force --The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016. This 8.5 percent increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous decade--1996 to 2006--when the labor force grew by 17.5 million. (See table 10.) --The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by 46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the labor force overall. (See table 10.) --Youths--those between the ages of 16 and 24--will decline in numbers and will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent. The number of prime-age workers--those between the ages of 25 and 54-- will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent. (See table 10.) --The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching 26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by only 5.1 percent. (See table 10.) --Increases in the labor force will vary by race. Whites will remain the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent, composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016. The number of blacks will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor force by 2016. (See table 10.) A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The measures upon which the employment and labor force projections are based are different. Employ- ment is a count of jobs; labor force is a count of individuals. In addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "An overview of BLS projections to 2016," James Franklin, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. Notes More detailed information on the 2006 to 2016 projections appears in five articles in the November 2007 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ mlr/welcome.htm. The forthcoming 2008-09 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2006-16 projections in assessing job prospects, work activities, earnings, educational require- ments, and more for numerous occupations and industries. The Handbook and Career Guide both will be available online December 18, 2007, at http://www. bls.gov/oco and http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg, respectively. A graphic pre- sentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Fall 2007 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Quarterly is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq. - 4 - Detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections will be published in the 2008-09 edition of the Occupational Projections and Training Data (OPTD). The OPTD will be available online May 2008 at http://www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm. The Occupational Outlook Handbook, Career Guide to Industries, Occupa- tional Outlook Quarterly, Occupational Projections and Training Data, and the Monthly Labor Review are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. To order, visit: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ emppub01.htm. To order Monthly Labor Review, visit: http://www.bls.gov/ opub/mlr/subscrib.htm. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.
- Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
- Table 2. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2006-2016 (1)
- Table 3. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2006-2016 (1)
- Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 2006 and projected 2016
- Table 5. The 30 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2006-2016
- Table 6. The 30 fastest-growing occupations, 2006-2016
- Table 7. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2006-2016
- Table 8. The 30 occupations with the largest employment declines, 2006-2016
- Table 9. Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education and training category
- Table 10. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
- Text version of entire news release
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Last Modified Date: December 04, 2007