As Barack Obama prepares for his third press conference in as many days, it is still remarkable even as we head into the holidays to think that just four years ago, the president-elect was a senator-elect, heading from Springfield to the Senate. Yes, it's become trite, but what a difference four years makes.
In that spirit it's interesting to think about 2012, and how our earliest of early senses of the Republican field might change. How some of the early contenders make use of their four years may go a long way to determining the next standard bearer. We already know Romney vs. Huckabee battle will simmer at Lincoln-Reagan dinners and book signings across the country. And one gets the sense that Gov. Sarah Palin will never fade away (I can see Wasilla from my house - on my TV at least). Two other Republicans face some interesting decisions, though, as they consider their future.
Gov. Bobby Jindal already tested the waters in Iowa this week. He won office easily in 2007 in a state still reeling from Hurricane Katrina, and with a state legislature filled with newcomers thanks to term limits, he has been able to advance many conservative causes and earn kudos from across the GOP spectrum. Jindal can very easily bury himself in the work of his office, even as he jets off to Des Moines and Manchester when the occasion warrants. But he will face a tough decision in 2011, when he must decide simultaneously whether to run for re-election at the same time he'd have to begin the heavy lifting of a presidential campaign. Could he contest his re-election and a straw poll at the same time? Does he bet his future on 2012 and forsake another term, or does he take the chance that 2016 might be a better opportunity?
Gov. Tim Pawlenty was even higher on the McCain veep list, with some news organizations convinced as little as one day before the announcement that he was the pick. He took some interesting, albeit subtle shots at Palin at this month's RGA gathering, and has been accepting many booking requests on cable news. He, like Jindal, faces a tough decision about re-election, but with the election in 2010, he would have an easier time pivoting from one campaign to another. The real question is, with two terms already under his belt, is three really a charm? He has yet to top 50 percent in a statewide race, and state Democrats would certainly try to make trouble for him again, even if there's no obvious challenger now. Riding off into the sunset as a successful Republican governor in a state that almost, and still may have a Senator Al Franken makes for some good talking points in Nashua. And unlike Mitt Romney, he'd have more than one term to brag about.
In the end, it's where Obama's presidency stands after two and a half years that will have the greatest impact on the Republican field. But we'll be keeping an eye on these and other contenders as they at least position themselves for a challenge.
Pete Williams of NBC raised the question on MSNBC this afternoon: Is
Hillary Clinton barred by the Constitution from accepting the post of
secretary of state?
No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was
elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United
States which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been increased
during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States,
shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office.
Essentially,
you cannot take a job if the salary was increased during your current congressional term. And the salary for cabinet officials has gone up in the past
year. Even if it is lowered back down, constitutional scholars say that
may not be enough to fix the problem.
The question is whether
this would be an issue at confirmation - if Clinton is nominated to the
post - and who would raise it. Senators traditionally grant their
colleagues some deference and it could be considered politics at its
worst if Republicans try to block her nomination with this argument. But senators may be loathe to vote for something scholars tell them is unconstitutional.
That being said, this development may make Obama, or Clinton, think twice about the appointment.
Lunching with a friend today, he raised an interesting question about Obama's press conference today. When was the last time we saw a deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget announced by an incoming administration at a press conference? And before the naming of the secretary of state?
Delaware's governor picked Biden aide Ted Kaufman to fill the next vice president's seat in the Senate, per the News Journal. He's Biden's longtime aide, former chief of staff and was a senior advisor to his presidential and vice presidential bids. He'll be sworn in mid-January, after Biden takes the seat for the beginning of his seventh term on Jan. 6.
Let the questions about Beau Biden in 2010 begin. And it means there will be a fun photo op when Dick Cheney swears in Biden for his new Senate term.
Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) "will make an announcement regarding the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by Vice President-elect Joe Biden," her office announced today.
At this stage it's unclear whether she plans to announce who will replace Biden, or simply a timetable for a decision. There are so many unanswered questions about the situation, led of course by speculation over whom would be named.
Another revolves around when Biden plans to resign. During the campaign, he was apparently only asked once about the subject, and told a local Missouri TV station he would resign only shortly before taking the oath of office as VP.
Some have suggested Biden should resign sooner to allow his replacement the chance to get a leg up on seniority over other new senators. But even this is murky, given the fact that Biden was re-elected to a new term that would begin Jan. 6. A historian at the Senate says an appointee may have to be re-appointed if Biden resigned sooner rather than later.
"Since the appointment would cover two separate terms, ending and beginning on January 3, 2009, it is possible that an appointment would have to be made for the remainder of this term, and another for the term beginning on January 3 (the constitutional beginning of the term), which would then go until the next general election," said Senate historian Betty Koen, who cautioned that the guidelines on Delaware law "are not specific enough to answer this question."
The Wilmington News Journal runs down the latest list of names rumored to be in line for an appointment. What's interesting about Minner making an announcement today is that it may signal Biden is, in fact, planning to let the outgoing governor appoint his replacement, not Gov.-elect Jack Markell, who'd make the decision if Biden waits to resign until Jan. 20.
Biden and Minner are close, and she would be more likely to make a placeholder appointment if Biden hopes to see his son, state AG Beau Biden, eventually run in the special election (he's ruled out an appointment now, which was a given since he's now in Iraq). Markell was not the chosen candidate of the state Democratic establishment, and I've heard some speculation that he'd be less inclined to make an appointment that would transparently set the stage for the younger Biden to run, especially since that appointment would be one of his first actions as governor (though I suspect both would be deferential to Biden in the end).
Looming largest has been outgoing Lt. Gov. John Carney, who Minner had endorsed in last year's gubernatorial primary. "Send JC to DC" buttons were spotted at Return Day, the state's traditional post-election political affair, where Biden appeared, signaling Carney is eager for the appointment. Whether he wants it to be a temporary gig, however, is unclear.
Will update more once we hear from Minner at 2:30 pm.
Her Thanksgiving turkey pardoning fiasco aside, Gov. Sarah Palin doesn't seem to be going anywhere. And she has her supporters. Just look at this new ad, paid for by Our Country Deserves Better, a conservative political action committee.
PAC spokesman Sal Russo said they have received $2 million in donations for the ads, which will start running tomorrow in Alaska and will include a national buy. "We wanted to give Sarah Palin the reassurance that despite the critics, Americans by and large appreciated her service and want her to continue to be a voice."
He said there was some "back and forth" about whether the political ad would air on the television networks. He said it would air on cable news outlets. In Alaska, the ad is airing in primetime Wednesday.
The Washington Times reports the Obama administration may wait until at least 2010 before pushing through Congress an end to the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy towards gays and lesbians.
While Obama campaigned to the gay community on a repeal - which would allow gays and lesbians to serve freely - it is not surprising that he is placing the issue on the backburner. It has gained public support in recent years among both the general public (75 percent supported gays in the military in a July Washington Post-ABC News poll) and military brass (more than 100 retired generals and admirals called for the repeal last week). It would likely pass Congress as well. But it is not where Obama would like to use his political capitol right now.
For one, the LGBT community is at a period of weakness, coming off losses in California and Florida on propositions to outlaw gay marriage. By focusing initially on an issue prominent in the LGBT community, Obama would be essentially ignoring the message he received from two states that helped get him elected, which supported a Democratic candidate but did not back steps forward in gay rights. A repeal now would be perceived as an appeal to a liberal base at a time when he should be reaching out to moderates, including religious moderates for whom gay issues remain a touchy subject.
Secondly, a change in the military rules would not go down smoothly. Conservative veterans would likely protest, as would many of the religious groups that mounted the strong challenges against gay marriage in California and Florida. The Republican Party would likely quickly grab hold of the debate as a wedge issue as well. Obama would need time and energy to defend the repeal, and that would distract from the economic crisis, which could hurt his public support at a time the nation is economically weakening.
By punting the issue, though, it reopens the perennial question - is there ever a right time to make a big move on gay rights. By 2010, midterm congressional contests will add new reasons not to push a repeal on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."
After receiving calls from RNC members asking him to run for RNC chair, ex-OH Sec/State Ken Blackwell is now considering a bid (Wake-Up Call! sources).
Blackwell was soundly defeated in his Ohio gov bid in '06, after a controversial stint as the secretary of state there. He's since been writing at Town Hall and heading up the Coalition for a Conservative Majority.
If he were to be a candidate for the RNC gig, that would mean the party has two African Americans vying to be one of the party's leading voices during an Obama administration. Michael Steele, the former Maryland lieutenant gov, is also in the mix.
As candidates in 2006, Blackwell mostly held to his strict conservative views on abortion, taxes and gun rights, while Steele presented a more moderate face in the deeper blue Free State.
A delightfully cryptic comment issued earlier from Hillary Clinton's Senate office, following the simple headline, "STATEMENT" (On what? one might ask)
Per Philippe Reines: "We're still in discussions, which are very much on track. Any reports beyond that are premature."
New York Times, among others, says she'll resign her Senate seat to accept Pres-elect Obama's offer to be Secretary of State.
Upon hearing the other night that AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano was the likely DHS pick, my first thought was about the curiosity that Obama just handed Republicans a governor's office. Arizona has no lieutenant governor, and so Napolitano's successor, if and when the appointment happens, would be the Republican secretary of state, Jan Brewer.
There are a few similarly interesting (at least I find them interesting) scenarios in other states if Pres-elect Obama selects certain incumbent governors and senators. Here are a few, using some of the names on the speculation list compiled by my friends at NBC:
Kansas and Montana: Both Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Brian Schweitzer chose Republicans to be their running mates - Sebelius in her '06 re-election, and Schweitzer in his initial '04 run. Mark Parkinson a Democrat now, but he used to be the Kansas Republican Party chairman, switching parties eventually amidst the turmoil within the state GOP. Schweitzer chose John Bohlinger as his running mate after a public search in which he sought applications from across the state. The two were re-elected solidly in the Democratic column.
Rhode Island and Maine: Jack Reed for Defense would give Republican Gov. Don Carcieri a chance to flip a Senate seat in Rhode Island by appointing a Republican. Gov. John Baldacci could even things out by appointing a fellow Democrat in Maine to replace Sens. Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, should either be picked.
Michigan and New Mexico: If either Bill Richardson or Jennifer Granholm gets tapped, the Democratic lieutenant governors would take over in both states. The storyline here would be that this scenario potentially helps the party hold the seats beyond 2010 by giving the number twos the advantage of running as the incumbent in two years.
Pennsylvania: The death last week of Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll makes an Ed Rendell Cabinet pick less likely, as Ben Smith pointed out last week. Republican Joe Scarnati is now the lt. gov. under state law, and Democrats wouldn't want to give him another promotion anytime soon.
Virginia: Tim Kaine was the first governor outside of Obama's home state to endorse the Illinois senator. If he were to earn a Cabinet seat, that would hand the governorship to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling for the final year of the term. It would complicate things even for the GOP, since state Attorney General, Bob McDonnell was preparing to be the party's nominee for governor next year. Might Bolling run to stay as gov instead of seeking re-election, as he plans now? And does any of it help if Terry McAuliffe were the Democratic nominee.
New Jersey: Jon Corzine left the Senate before his first term ended to run for governor. Now, he could potentially leave the governor's office with a year left in his term to head Treasury. New Jersey still doesn't have a lieutenant governor (though that changes soon), so Senate President Dick Codey would again become "acting governor," as he did in 2004 when Jim McGreevey resigned. Some New Jersey Democrats might not mind this scenario, at least those who think that the popular Codey might actually be a stronger candidate in 2009 against a likely strong Republican challenger in Chris Christie.
So it looks like Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will be the next homeland security secretary. It's an underappreciated position for Obama, because the new department has never had a Democratic leader. The next secretary will essentially be laying out the party's philosophy on a wide range of issues, from border security and immigration to counterterrorism.
Napolitano, by all accounts, brings a lot to the table as a potential homeland security secretary. As the governor of a border state, she would bring a unique perspective to the immigration debate, where she has advocated for increased enforcement but opposes a fence. She's been tough on businesses that hired undocumented workers, a tough position to take as a Democratic governor in a state with a large Hispanic population. She called for the National Guard to police the border and coordinated an online system so employers could check new hires' work status.
She's also a former U.S. attorney, which gives her law enforcement credentials. Counterterrorism, though, is not her area of expertise, certainly when compared to someone like Michael Chertoff. It will likely raise questions about whether the department will shift resources to immigration issues, and reopen discussions about whether the Federal Emergency Management Agency will be moved out from its purview.
But perhaps where Napolitano could be utilized most is in helping the fledging department deal with the states and cities it needs to coordinate with. Since the beginning, the department has drawn complaints from local law enforcement who say they aren't getting the resources or the information they need from DHS. Napolitano has been on the other side of the coin, and therefore likely be well attuned to those concerns.
After losing a dozen plus seats in the past two cycles, Republicans are already looking ahead to 2010 (MN and GA races notwithstanding). As some speculate already about whether the playing field is favorable for the GOP, handicappers should not ignore one of the lessons of this cycle: run scared or go home.
There are a host of other factors at play, but smart folks say that incumbents like Susan Collins survived a Democratic wave in a blue state because she anticipated the challenges ahead early on, and was ready from the get go against a solid Democratic recruit. Meanwhile, Saxby Chambliss faces a runoff in part because he was late to react to what became a tough race against a tough, though unknown, opponent.
With that in mind, there are some interesting tea leaves worth reading in the earliest stages of the next round. For starters - money. On Wednesday, the good folks at The Hotline ran a great chart listing cash on hand totals for the incumbents, showing most have a $1 to 3 million base. Sens. Shelby, Bayh and Schumer - all likely safe -- lead the pack with $10 million+, but next is the very vulnerable Arlen Specter, with more than $5 million.
Toward the bottom of the list are a few incumbents who may face strong challenges, like NC's Burr ($980K), NH's Gregg ($880K) and AR's Lincoln ($684K). Jim Bunning, who barely won in '04, has an anemic $175K, leading some to speculate he may retire even as he's stated otherwise. Burr's is an interesting case given the defeat of his colleague, Liddy Dole, and the fact that no one has been re-elected to the seat he holds now in decades. An adviser promises he has been working the state hard throughout his term, however.
Poking around the Internets, you get another sense of who's already girding their loins, as Joe Biden would say. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who's raised the specter of a challenge from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, has an active site that currently promotes a fundraising push in honor of her 68th birthday. David Vitter's (R-LA) site features a smiling family photo, and the slogan "Fighting for our Future." Arlen Specter is home at specter2010.com (though he may want to take down the photo of him and the losing GOP ticket).
At the other extreme, a half dozen incumbents have no Web page, including again Gregg and Lincoln. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) site invites visitors to watch "Senator-elect" Martinez' victory speech. Chris Dodd and John McCain still have their presidential sites up.
There's a long road ahead, including some open seats and at least one special election to come. VP-elect Joe Biden will resign his Senate seat within weeks of his being sworn in for a seventh term. But more on that later.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell is reporting this morning that Hillary Clinton is likely to accept the State Department post after Thanksgiving. Largely left out of the conversation about her move to Foggy Bottom is who would get her seat in the Senate. With a Democratic governor in New York, the move would not change the balance of power, but it certainly would start a new parlor game in Washington and Albany.
My first thought would have to be Rep. Nita Lowey, who abandoned her run for the Senate in 2000 once Clinton entered the fray. I spoke with her in 2006 for Congressional Quarterly and she acknowledged that she stepped aside for Clinton and was disappointed. Lowey is well known in the state, and well regarded on Capitol Hill from her time as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But she is 71 and told me she would be less interested in the job now that she is the chairwoman of the House Appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations (at the time we were hypothesizing about an open seat if Clinton won the White House).
The safer bet is Andrew Cuomo, who has been looking for an opportunity to rise in state and national politics for a while. Choosing Cuomo would help Gov. David Paterson dispose of a potential Democratic rival when Paterson runs for his first elected term in 2010.
Paterson may also look to shore up a constituency he'll need in 2010. The New York Times reports Paterson is looking for someone who is from upstate, is a woman or Latino. Rep. Nydia Velazquez would meet two of those goals, the only problem is she represents Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan.Rep. Brian Higgins, who represents Buffalo, is being talked about as well.
And then there's this name being talked about...Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Beginning today, I'll be off for a few days, doing this, that, and the other.
Two great young journalists, Mike Memoli and Matthew Berger, have agreed to pick up the slack. Mike just wrapped up a stint as campaign reporter for NBC and the National Journal. In that role, he spent most of the past year on the road covering the New Hampshire primary, the Clintons and the Obama. Prior to that, he spent three years at The Hotline, covering local, state and national campaigns, and was associated editor of Last Call.
Matthew covered Rudy Giuliani's campaign for NBC and the National Journal. Before that, he was a staff writer for CQ Daily and freelanced for a variety of publications, including the Jerusalem Post.
Democratic and national security sources say that former National Counterrorism Center head John Brennan remains the favorite to be nominated director of the Central Intelligence Agency even as his pending appointment raises the hackles of some Obama advisers because of his ties to George Tenet and controversial programs.
The sources say that Brennan has begun to recruit a team he hopes to bring with him to the agency, and that he has been vetted. Brennan did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment. Along with former CIA official Jami Miscik, he is helping to organize Obama's intelligence agency transition and policy review.
Also being vetted for a key intelligence job is Maj. Gen. Robert Harding (Ret)., formerly director of operations at the Defense Intelligence Agency and a former head of the army's intelligence operations.
Brennan, who was once slated to be deputy to current DNI Mike McConnell, is a lifelong Republican who converted to Obama last year, after his friend Tony Lake asked Brennan to serve on an intelligence advisory panel. A career CIA officer, Brennan favors a holistic and systematic approach to intelligence gathering, and earned the respect of Democrats as the founding director of the Terrorist Threat Integration Center, now the National Counterrorism Center. On terrorism, as he told National Journal's Shane Harris, United States foreign policy should be more proactive.
I am a strong proponent of trying to focus more of our efforts on the
upstream phenomenon of terrorism. I make the analogy to pollution. We
learned that pollutants kill us when they get into the water we drink
or the fish we eat or the air we breathe. But I think we also learned
that we have to go upstream to identify and eliminate those sources of
pollution. Terrorism is a tactic, and we have to be more focused
upstream. Since 9/11, understandably we've focused downstream, on those
terrorists who might be in our midst or trying to kill us, the
operators. I think there needs to be much more attention paid to those
upstream factors and conditions that spawn terrorists.
But, as George Tenet's chief of staff and deputy executive dierctor, Brennan was undoubtedly read into some of the Bush Administration's more controversial intelligence programs, although there is no evidence that he made decisions. In interviews since leaving the government, Brennan has expressed support for the government's rendition policy, calling it effective, "enhanced" interrogation techniques and immunity for telecommunications companies involved in government spying efforts.
Obama takes an opposite position on all three subjects. His widely reported choice of former deputy attorney Eric Holder as attorney general may help mollify critics of the Brennan pick, as Holder and White House counsel Gregory Craig, along with Obama's national security adviser and director of national intelligence, will set policy, not Brennan.
ABC News reported tonight that Marine Gen. James Jones (Ret.) is the leading candidate to be Barack Obama's national security adviser, and Adm. Dennis Blair (Ret.), the top candidate to be director of national intelligence.
Obama's political team wants the advice of its field organizers to figure out what happens to the movement they've built. There are so many senior field organizers that the Obama campaign had to organize five days of conferences with four simultaneous calls per conference.
Here's an e-mail forwarded by one field organizer:
Dear Field Organizers:
Congratulations
again to all of you! Thank you for the contribution you made building
this movement and electing Senator Obama the next President of the
United States. You are the reason we have come this far. Let me make
that clear: YOU are the reason Barack Obama is assembling a team of
people to run our government right now. YOU are the reason we have and
will continue to change the world.
As a part of the transition
process, we are completing a thorough analysis of the campaign and are
seeking your input on where we should go from here. In order to do
this, we are setting up a series of one hour conference calls starting
this Friday, November 21st through Tuesday, November 25th.
You will be joined by up to 9 other Field Organizers from throughout
the country for this discussion which will be led by a facilitator from
the campaign.
I'm asking that each of you sign up for one of
these calls online by the end of the day this Thursday. Just click on
the links below to rsvp for a call (each day has multiple calls you can
attend. They are set up as MyBo events - do not worry about the
"location" of the calls. We had to put a city in there to make it a
MyBo event).The conference call information is all
provided online. Thank you for your participation in this important
process. Look forward to hearing from each one of you.
All call times are listed in Central Standard Time
[Note:
Each time slot has four calls happening simultaneously. If a call is
full for the time at which you'd like to participate, simply scroll
down to sign up for another call at that time]
This is your
chance to tell us what you think of your experience as an Organizer on
the campaign and what you think should happen with this movement going
forward. We will also update you on the transition at the beginning of
the calls to make sure you are looped in on where things stand.
Democrats close to Sen. Hillary Clinton have told associates that by close of business on Friday, they hope to know, one way or the other, whether Clinton will become President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of State. Others say that while they expect a decision very soon, although no time-frame has been given.
Fewer than a half dozen Clinton aides and advisers are privy to the details of the vetting and to the state of Clinton's thinking about the job.
Given the size of the colander holes in Washington these days, the decision, whenever it is made, will probably leak fairly rapidly.
The Politico's Mike Allen reported Wednesday that loose ends will be wrapped up in short order, and that an announcement of Clinton's position could come before Thanksgiving.
Transition officials caution that the timing of any announcement is subject to change. One Democrat in daily contact with transition officials said the Clinton appointment "is all but a done deal," although that official did not know whether Clinton has formally accepted a formal offer.
So maybe we know nothing more than we know already.
A Clinton spokesman referred all requests for comment to the transition team; a transition spokesman declined to comment.
On Monday, thanks to the National Security Archive, the National Security Agency released thousands of pages from its enormous, official, classified history of the nation's signal intelligence and communications security operations during the code war. Its author is Dr. Thomas Johnson, the agency's official historian.
In the labyrinthine and opaque history of the United States's relationship with Israel, the deadly 1967 attack by Israeli fighter jets on a United States Navy intelligence ship, the USS Liberty, remains a sore point and is much debated. Despite the sensitivity of the incident -- it involved the most secretive agency in government, a most important American alliance, extremely sensitive technical details, historians and journalists have an enormous reservoir of documents to mine through, and most of the major players have long-since given their first-person interviews.
The official version is that the U.S. accepts the Israeli explanation for the attack; that it was an accident, the result of a chain of errors in judgment, command and execution. But the truth is that it the U.S. government was skeptical for far longer than had been previously acknowledged. (The Chicago Tribune's John Crewdson has perhaps the most comprehensive, most compelling recent account of the controversy.) One of the key disputes: was the ship itself, or another NSA collection technology, monitoring Israeli defense communications? (And did Israel, figuring this out, seek to disable the ship or send a message to Americans by strafing it?)
The official declassified NSA history says no, although there is a caveat; "Although there was no sigint bearing directly on the attack, there was a [16 LETTER REDACTION] report shortly after the incident dealing with the aftermath. It detailed air-ground communications between a controller as Halstor and two Israeli helicopters with reconnoitered the Liberty as it was turning toward Malta."
We are left to guess at what's redacted. Here's a clue: Crewdson's 2007 article notes that a Navy SIGINT collection airplane picked up conversations between the helicopters and Israeli controllers in the immediate aftermath. The Navy specialist who listened to the events in real-time told Crewdson that the NSA's voluminous release of documents was incomplete.
Here's a portion from the new history:
The entire history, which will take us afficiandos a while to pluck through, was once classified as Top Secret Umbra, with Umbra denoting intelligence of a specific level of sensitivity. At the bottom of the document, the reader is instructed to Handle Via Talent-Keyhole Comint Channels Jointly. For those who aren't intel fetishists, Talent-Keyhole is a category designation of sensitive compartmented information that deals with signals intelligence. Talent information deals with aircraft-gathered intelligence; Keyhole denotes imagery (imint) from satellites. Comint refers to sensitive signals intelligence methods and sources. Basically, the history was written at a level of classification that basically forbid even many intelligence professionals from reading it.
Of course, that's all been declassified. Or most of it -- the documents are studded with fascinating redactions...
If Barack Obama wants to forge a new liberal consensus in mainstream America,
would it be better for him to hire only Democrats for his
administration? Or would it be better for him to do what he tells us he
is inclined to do: appoint some Republicans to enact liberal policies?
If high-profile Republicans (say, Arnold Schwarzenegger) are in
charge of large liberal initiatives (say, a public works project to
rebuild infrastructure across America), that might create the
impression that not only are Obama's progressive views mainstream, but
that Republicans have tacitly conceded the economic debate altogether.
Some Democrats are wary of Obama's professed bipartisanship. But
there's been no evidence that his views are torn between the left and
the right; he is clearly putting forth a progressive, or liberal, agenda. So, rather
than a Democrat bringing in a bunch of Republicans to govern by
splitting the baby between the two sides, it appears that we have a
case of a Democrat bringing in Republicans to put a bipartisan face on
progressive policy, shades of, say, George Bush bringing in Ted Kennedy to put a bipartisan face on "compassionate conservatism."
During the last period of liberal consensus (from the 1930s through
the early 1960s), Republicans like Eisenhower may not have been as
liberal as Democrats like Adlai Stevenson, but they accepted the new
political realities and worked to strengthen and extend Roosevelt's
ideas (it was Eisenhower, after all, who built the enormous
infrastructure project known as the interstate highway system, and who
railed against those conservatives seeking to dismantle Social
Security).
Why anyone would want to take over DHS is a mystery to many in Washington, and it's not entirely clear that Gov. Janet Napolitano will get the job.
But fellow Arizonan, Sen. John McCain, may have given us a clue. He called Napolitano today and emerged from the call with a statement of congratulations and support:
Today, Senator
McCain called and congratulated Governor Janet Napolitano on her emergence as
top contender for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Senator
McCain said "Governor Napolitano's experience as the former U.S. Attorney for Arizona, Arizona's Attorney
General, and as Governor warrants her rapid confirmation by the Senate and I
hope she is quickly confirmed." Senator McCain looks forward to working
with her throughout the nomination process.
BTW: no inside information here on whether Penny Pritzker is going to get the Commerce portfolio, but the idea of having a Penny at Commerce during a recession is kind of appropriate, no?
1. Yesterday, I wrote way too hastily that President Clinton had canceled his campaign trip to Georgia in order to attend to his wife's "pressing business." Here's what happened: because Clinton wants to attend to said business, his staff asked Jim Martin's campaign to move the location of a fundraiser closer to the venue for Clinton's public speech. There was some confusion, some gnashing of teeth, and knowledgeably people downstream picked up bad information. Unfortunately, I took the information and printed it before checking with Clinton's spokesman, Matt McKenna, whose evening was almost ruined by a call list that grew by 20 names of reporters who were trying to figure out what was happening. My reporting was sloppy; that's what happened.
2. Earlier this week, I speculated about John Kerry and the Department of the Interior. Actually, I'd be surprised if Kerry leaves the Senate if he doesn't become Secretary of State.
I don't really care much about the overall point being made, but as a professional poker player, i have to say that "Reader David Loewenberg" is completely misusing his poker metaphor. In fact, his metaphor works entirely against the point he is trying to make.When someone is shortstacked (the phrase is not "small stacked", you take any chance that is +ev to eliminate him. you DON'T want any player to stick around ever if you eliminate them in a tournament. (it's pretty similar in a cash game). As to calling a shortstack's bluffing, in that situation the caller is rarely more than a 60% favorite to win that particular hand.
To be sure, Huckabee is popular in Iowa, and he wants to sell books, so you shouldn't necessarily read much into his visit to DSM. On the other hand, his publishing company chose Iowa to host his first outside-the-Beltway event.
American Family Association founder Don E. Wildmon has endorsed South Carolina Republican Party head Katon Dawson's RNC chairman's bid.
In an e-mail sent to supporters today, Wildmon writes that "if the Republican Party is to survive, it must get back to its roots. I believe that Katon Dawson...has the ability to take the party where it needs to go."
As a post script, Wildmon throws a little dirt at one of Dawson's opponents. He passes along a transcript of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele equivocating about Roe v. Wade in 2006. "[F]or many in the pro-life movement, Steele's comments could disqualify him from receiving their support."
Wildmon endorsed Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign. It's notable that he's not endorsing Huckabee's preferred candidate, Chip Saltsman.
Is there evidence that suburban independents chose not to vote Republican primarily or even pluralily* because they worried about what Kathleen Parker calls the Oogedy Boogedy sect within the party? (i.e., Andrew's Christianists, Ross's conservative evangelicals.)? Lots of people assume that there is. This assumption is common more to liberals and centrists than it is to conservatives, of course. It'd be good to see some hard numbers from either side of this debate.
The problem with Sarah Palin, at least according to pre-election polls, was not that she exemplified/amplified the Christian right. It was that voters perceived her to be incompetent and not able to handle the job of commander in chief. In any event, there might be evidence to support this claim; Barack Obama ( a self-described evangelical, it must be said) turned over a whole bunch of suburbs in fast-growing areas. Democrats tried mightily to make inroads with conservative evangelicals, and they failed. This demographic group is, as Larison points out, is one of the most reliable factions within the party. At this point, they matter enough. The dirty secret is not that a large part of the Republican establishment is worried about their influence. There are two secrets, actually: one -- that the "leaders" of the various movements within social conservatism are ill-adapted to modern politics and can exacerbate tensions between the movement and outsiders; and two -- that a large part of the Republican establishment believes they can pander to these voters, not address their core concerns, and still rely on them for support. You can't build a Republican Party without them, but, depending on
where you are in this great land of ours, you can safely ignore their
cultural demands and still be a success, even if you're a Republican.
When Charlie Crist ran for governor of Florida, he vacillated between
pandering to the right and ignoring them. As governor, he's ignored
them. And his approval rating is at 68%.
Marc Ambinder, an Atlantic associate editor, is blogging the 2008 presidential election from the roadshows. He might also write the occasional post about aviation, national security, and cognitive neuroscience. Mostly politics, though.
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