Variable2 |
Women 45 |
Women 55 |
Women 65 |
Women 75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Predicted 5-year risk of breast cancer, %3 |
||||
|
No Family history |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
Family history |
1.6 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
|
Benefits per 1,000 women over 5 y of tamoxifen therapy |
||||
|
Cases of invasive breast cancer avoided, n |
||||
|
No Family history |
3-4 |
5-6 |
7-8 |
8 |
|
Family history |
8 |
11-12 |
16 |
17 |
|
Cases of noninvasive breast cancer avoided, n |
||||
|
No Family history |
1-2 |
2 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
|
Family history |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
|
Hip fractures avoided, n4 |
<1 |
3 |
5 |
15 |
|
Harms per 1000 women over 5 y of tamoxifen therapy |
||||
|
Cases of endometrial cancer caused, n4 |
1-2 |
12 |
21 |
"22" |
|
Strokes caused, n4 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
20 |
|
Pulmonary emboli caused, n4 |
1-2 |
4-5 |
9 |
18 |
|
Cases of deep venous thrombosis caused, n4 |
1-2 |
1-2 |
3 |
4 |
1 These estimates are based on the Gail model, outcomes from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial, and baseline rates of harms from Gail et al.13
2 No family history = no first-degree relatives with breast cancer; family history = 1 first-degree relative with breast cancer.
3 Based on menarche at 12 years of age, first birth at "22" years of age, and no history of breast biopsy, as calculated from the Gail model.
4 Modified from Gail et al.13