Table 2. Annual Outcomes of Ovarian Cancer Screening in a Hypothetical Cohort of 10,000 Women Aged 50 to 64 at Higher Risk Assuming 40% Mortality Reduction and Using Bi-annual Transvaginal Ultrasound*

Women Screened and Predictive Value of Interventions Three times risk
(1 in 830 per year)
Ten times risk
(1 in 250 per year)
Number of women participating in screening program 10,00010,000
Screening interval Every 2 yearsEvery 2 years
Number of screening tests carried out per year 5,0005,000
Number of women recalled for further assessment per year who do not have primary ovarian cancer 350 (7% of screens)350 (7% of screens)
Number of women undergoing surgery per year who do not have primary ovarian cancer 65 (1.3% of screens)65 (1.3% of screens)
Maximum number of cancers detected by screening per year (if 100% sensitivity) 1240
Number of additional 5-year survivors per year 4.816
Predictive value of recall (if 100% sensitivity) 3.3%10.3%
Predictive value of diagnostic surgery (if 100% sensitivity) 16%38.1%
* Adapted from Bell, et al., 1998.32

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