Table 1. Annual Outcomes of Ovarian Cancer Screening in a Hypothetical Cohort of 10,000 Women Aged 50 to 64 Assuming 40% Mortality Reduction and an Annual Incidence of 40 Per 100,000*

Women Screened and Predictive Value of Interventions CA 125 Transvaginal Ultrasound
Number of women participating in screening program 10,00010,000
Screening interval AnnualEvery 2 years
Number of screening tests carried out per year 10,0005,000
Number of women recalled for further assessment per year who do not have primary ovarian cancer 300 (3% of screens)350 (7% of screens)
Number of women undergoing surgery per year who do not have primary ovarian cancer 20 (0.2% of screens)65 (1.3% of screens)
Maximum number of cancers detected by screening per year (if 100% sensitivity) 44
Number of additional 5-year survivors per year 1.51.5
Predictive value of recall (if 100% sensitivity) 1.3%1.1%
Predictive value of diagnostic surgery (if 100% sensitivity) 17%5.8%
* Adapted from Bell, et al., 1998.32

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