| Parameter | Parameter Value | Base-Case Source | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base-Case Analysisa | Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Distributionb | |||||
| Prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes, % |
Non-hypertensive | Ages 0 to 49 y | 5.534 | Logn(5.53, 3.61) | 36 | |
| 50 to 59 y | 5.742 | Logn(5.74, 3.26) | 36 | |||
| 60 to 69 y | 2.606 | Logn(2.61, 0.96) | 36 | |||
| 70 to 94 y | 4.779 | Logn(4.78, 3.07) | 36 | |||
| Hypertensive | Ages 0 to 49 y | 5.302 | Logn(5.30, 2.71) | 36 | ||
| 50 to 59 y | 8.178 | Logn(8.18, 5.09) | 36 | |||
| 60 to 69 y | 3.403 | Logn(3.40, 1.70) | 36 | |||
| 70 to 94 y | 4.047 | Logn(4.05, 2.55) | 36 | |||
| Sensitivity and specificity of capillary blood glucose (CBG) test for identifying diabetes |
Sensitivity | Female | Ages 0 to 44 y | 0.973 | Logn(0.973, 0.954) | 22 |
| 45 to 94 y | 0.796 | Logn(0.796, 0.780) | 22 | |||
| Male | Ages 0 to 44 y | 0.961 | Logn(0.961, 0.942) | 22 | ||
| 45 to 94 y | 0.938 | Logn(0.938, 0.919) | 22 | |||
| Specificity | Female | Ages 0 to 44 y | 0.740 | Logn(0.740, 0.725) | 22 | |
| 45 to 94 y | 0.928 | Logn(0.928, 0.909) | 22 | |||
| Male | Ages 0 to 44 y | 0.912 | Logn(0.912, 0.894) | 22 | ||
| 45 to 94 y | 0.905 | Logn(0.905, 0.887) | 22 | |||
| Transition probabilities |
Normal to microalbuminuria | 0.0113 | Not varied | 37 | ||
| Normal to peripheral neuropathy | 0.0036 | Not varied | 37 | |||
| Costs | Screening test (CBG) | $4.37 | Triang(3.28, 4.37, 5.46) | 23 | ||
| Diagnostic test (Fasting Plasma Glucose) | $5.32 | Triang(3.99, 5.32, 6.65) | 23 | |||
| Blood draw (for diagnostic test) | $3.00 | Triang(2.25, 3.00, 3.75) | 23 | |||
| 15-min physician visit | 38.63 | Triang(29, 39, 48) | 23 | |||
| 25-min physician visit (extra 10 mins for screen) | 58.66 | Triang(44, 59, 73) | 23 | |||
| Other | Time from diabetes onset to screening, y | 5 | Unif(4.00, 6.00) | Assumed | ||
| Time from diabetes onset to diagnosis, y | 10 | Unif(9, 12) | 15 | |||
a These values were applied in all model runs unless otherwise specified (in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses).
b The distributions from which parameter values were randomly sampled in the probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The ranges for parameters without published variability data followed these guidelines: screening sensitivity and specificity values vary by +/- 2%; costs more than $300 vary by +/-15%; costs less than $300, time durations, transition probabilities, hazard rates, and quality-of-life values vary by +/-25%; and the discounting factor varies from 2% to 5%. Relevant limits were applied to all ranges (e.g., quality of life and probabilities must be between 0 and 1).
Note: Logn(a,b) = Lognormal distribution with mean a, lower bound of 95% confidence interval b; Triang(a,b,c) = Triangular distribution with minimum a, mode b, maximum c. Unif(a,b) = Uniform distribution with minimum a, maximum b.
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Proceed to Appendix Table 2. Discount Rates