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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for January and the Daily Treasury Statements for February | March 10, 2000 |
CBO estimates that the federal government recorded a deficit of about
$3 billion during the first five months of fiscal year 2000, $23 billion
less than the deficit at the same point last year. CBO expects that the
budgetary outlook will continue to improve over the course of the fiscal
year, yielding a total budget surplus of $179 billion for 2000 (compared
with a surplus of $124 billion for fiscal year 1999).
JANUARY RESULTS (In billions of dollars) |
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Preliminary Estimate |
Actual | Difference | ||||
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Receipts | 189.0 | 189.5 | 0.5 | |||
Outlays | 128.2 | 127.3 | -0.9 | |||
Surplus | 60.8 | 62.2 | 1.4 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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The surplus in January was $62.2 billion, slightly more than the $60.8
billion that CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements.
Revenues were $0.5 billion higher than CBO's preliminary estimate, and
outlays were $0.9 billion lower.
ESTIMATES FOR FEBRUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Actual FY1999 |
Preliminary FY2000 |
Estimated Change |
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Receipts | 99.5 | 109.2 | 9.7 | |||
Outlays | 141.8 | 153.6 | 11.8 | |||
Deficit (-) | -42.3 | -44.4 | -2.1 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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February and May are typically the months with the lowest revenues and
the largest deficits. This February was no exception. CBO estimates that
the deficit in February was about $44 billion, very close to the $42 billion
deficit recorded in February 1999. Revenues were almost $10 billion, or
about 10 percent, higher than a year ago, boosted in part by one more collection
day this February. (The increase in revenues would have been $3 billion
to $4 billion smaller if not for the leap day.) Outlays rose by about $12
billion, or 8 percent--substantially faster than the 4 percent increase
recorded in the first four months of the fiscal year.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH FEBRUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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October-February
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Estimated Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | |||||
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Receipts | 684 | 742 | 58 | |||
Outlays | 710 | 745 | 35 | |||
Deficit (-) | -26 | -3 | 23 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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CBO estimates that the deficit for the first five months of fiscal year
2000 was $3 billion, compared with $26 billion for the same period last
year (and $56 billion for the corresponding period in fiscal year 1998).
Receipts were about $58 billion higher than in fiscal year 1999, while
outlays were only $35 billion higher.
RECEIPTS THROUGH FEBRUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Source | October-February
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Percentage Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | ||||||
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Individual Income | 330 | 374 | 13.2 | ||||
Corporate Income | 54 | 55 | 2.1 | ||||
Social Insurance | 237 | 252 | 6.3 | ||||
Other | 62 | 61 | -1.6 | ||||
Total | 684 | 742 | 8.6 | ||||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
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After the first five months of the fiscal year, receipts are 8.6 percent
higher than they were at the same point last year. They have been boosted
mostly by strong withholding for individual income and social insurance
payroll taxes, especially in December and January. Revenues from corporate
income taxes remain slightly above the 1999 level, after falling from 1998
to 1999.
OUTLAYS THROUGH FEBRUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Category | October-February
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Percentage Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | |||||||
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Defense--Military | 105 | 112 | 6.6 | |||||
Social Security Benefits | 158 | 163 | 3.5 | |||||
Medicare | 85 | 88 | 3.9 | |||||
Medicaid | 44 | 47 | 6.7 | |||||
Other Programs and Activities | 221 | 238 | 7.5 | |||||
Subtotal | 613 | 648 | 5.8 | |||||
Net Interest on the Public Debt | 98 | 97 | -0.3 | |||||
Total | 710 | 745 | 4.9 | |||||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||||
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CBO estimates that outlays in the first five months of fiscal year 2000 were 4.9 percent higher than in the same period last year. That growth rate is higher than the 3.1 percent rate recorded for fiscal year 1999 as a whole.
Almost all major categories of spending are growing faster this year than they did during fiscal year 1999. (Part of the apparent upturn occurs because, through February, there has been one more business day this year than last.) Defense spending is up by more than 6 percent, after rising by only 2 percent last year. Payments of Social Security benefits have risen by 3.5 percent, compared with a 2.9 percent increase last year. Medicare outlays, which declined by almost 1 percent last year, have turned up and are running almost 4 percent higher than they did in 1999.
Net interest on the public debt fell by 6 percent last year but is down by only 0.3 percent this year, as rising interest rates have offset the reductions in federal debt. Medicaid outlays are growing by almost 7 percent, about the same rate of increase as in 1999.
Net spending for the wide variety of other federal programs and activities
has grown by $17 billion--about 7.5 percent--in the first five months,
compared with an increase of almost 10 percent for fiscal year 1999 as
a whole. Of the $17 billion increase, more than $6 billion was for additional
aid to farmers. Significant increases have also been recorded for the Justice
and Transportation departments and in outlays for the earned income tax
credit. In addition, over the past few years, the deposit insurance agencies
have gradually disposed of most of the assets they obtained from failed
financial institutions. Receipts from that source have fallen and thus
net outlays of those agencies are rising.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2000 (In billions of dollars) |
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OMB | CBO | ||
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Total Receipts | 1,956 | 1,945 | |
Total Outlays | 1,776 | 1,766 | |
Total Surplus | 179 | 179 | |
On-budget surplus | 32 | 26 | |
Off-budget surplus | 148 | 153 | |
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SOURCES: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office. | |||
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CBO and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) have recently released
new projections of the budget outlook for fiscal year 2000, which are very
similar. Both agencies now estimate a total surplus of $179 billion (in
the absence of additional spending legislation). CBO anticipates that both
receipts and outlays will be $10 billion to $11 billion less than OMB forecasts.
CBO is projecting that revenues will increase by 6.4 percent this year
and outlays will grow by 3.7 percent. (See An Analysis of the President's
Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2001: A Preliminary Report, March
2000.) CBO forecasts an on-budget surplus for 2000 of $26 billion, slightly
less than OMB's estimate of $32 billion.
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this
report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Prepared by Robert Sunshine and Mark Booth |