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INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Thursday, October 16, 2008
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: SEPTEMBER 2008
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased
0.1 percent in September, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The September
level of 218.783 (1982-84=100) was 4.9 percent higher than in September
2007.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) decreased 0.1 percent in September, prior to seasonal adjustment.
The September level of 214.935 (1982-84=100) was 5.4 percent higher than
in September 2007.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
decreased 0.1 percent in September on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
The September level of 125.774 (December 1999=100) was 4.3 percent higher
than in September 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006
period are subject to revision.
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was virtually unchanged in
September following a 0.1 percent decrease in August. The index for
energy fell 1.9 percent in September following a 3.1 percent decline in
August. The motor fuel index declined 0.8 percent in September but was
31.8 percent higher than a year ago. The index for household energy fell
3.4 percent in September after a 1.6 percent decrease in August. The food
index advanced 0.6 percent in September, the same increase as in August.
The index for food at home rose 0.6 percent in September after a 0.8
percent rise in August and is up 7.6 percent over the past year. The
index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in
September, decelerating for the second straight month. Contributing to
the deceleration were downturns in the indexes for apparel and for airline
fares, a smaller (cont.)
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. ended ended
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Sep. 2008 Sep. 2008
All items.......... .3 .2 .6 1.1 .8 -.1 .0 2.6 4.9
Food and beverages .2 .9 .3 .7 .9 .6 .6 8.5 6.0
Housing........... .4 .3 .5 .5 .6 -.1 -.1 1.8 3.5
Apparel........... -1.3 .5 -.3 .1 1.2 .5 -.1 6.6 1.4
Transportation.... .7 -.7 2.0 3.8 1.7 -1.5 -.6 -1.7 10.5
Medical care...... .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .2 .3 2.5 3.2
Recreation........ .3 -.1 .1 .1 .4 .5 .2 4.6 2.4
Education and
communication.. .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .2 .1 3.3 3.5
Other goods and
services....... .4 .5 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 3.3 4.0
Special indexes:
Energy............ 1.9 .0 4.4 6.6 4.0 -3.1 -1.9 -4.9 23.1
Food.............. .2 .9 .3 .8 .9 .6 .6 8.7 6.2
All items less
food and energy .2 .1 .2 .3 .3 .2 .1 2.7 2.5
increase in the index for recreation, and a steeper decline in the index for
new and used motor vehicles. These more than offset an upturn in the index
for lodging away from home and larger increases in the indexes for medical
care and owners' equivalent rent.
Consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2008 following increases in
the first and second quarters at annual rates of 3.1 and 7.9 percent,
respectively. This brings the year-to-date annual rate to 4.5 percent and
compares with an increase of 4.1 percent for all of 2007. The index for
energy fell at a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2008,
following increases at rates of 8.6 percent and 53.6 percent in the first
two quarters, respectively. So far this year, the energy index has risen
at a 16.6 percent rate after increasing 17.4 percent in all of 2007.
Within energy, petroleum-based energy costs (energy commodities) advanced
at a 19.1 percent rate and energy services (gas and electricity) rose at a
12.4 percent rate in the first nine months of 2008. The food index rose
at a 7.5 percent SAAR in the first nine months of 2008, compared to a 4.9
percent increase in all of 2007. The larger increase reflects
acceleration in all of the major grocery store food groups except dairy
and related products. The cereals and bakery products index and the
fruits and vegetables index rose the fastest, rising at a 14.2 percent and
12.1 percent SAAR, respectively.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy rose at a 2.7 percent SAAR in the
third quarter following increases at rates of 2.0 and 2.5 percent in the
first and second quarter, respectively. The index increased over the
first nine months of 2008 at a 2.4 percent SAAR, which matches the 2.4
percent increase during all of 2007. Deceleration in the shelter and
medical care indexes, as well as the index for new and used motor
vehicles, were offset by a larger increase in the recreation index and
upturns in the indexes for apparel and for household furnishings and
operations.
Percentage change 12 months SAAR 9
ended in December mos.
ended
Sep.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
All items........... 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 2.5 4.1 4.5
Food and beverages 2.8 1.5 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 4.8 7.2
Housing............ 2.9 2.4 2.2 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.5
Apparel............ -3.2 -1.8 -2.1 -.2 -1.1 .9 -.3 .9
Transportation..... -3.8 3.8 .3 6.5 4.8 1.6 8.3 7.2
Medical care....... 4.7 5.0 3.7 4.2 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.6
Recreation......... 1.5 1.1 1.1 .7 1.1 1.0 .8 2.5
Education and
communication..... 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 3.0 3.9
Other goods and
services.......... 4.5 3.3 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.3 4.3
Special indexes:
Energy............. -13.0 10.7 6.9 16.6 17.1 2.9 17.4 16.6
Energy commodities -24.5 23.7 6.9 26.7 16.7 6.1 29.4 19.1
Energy services... -1.5 .4 6.9 6.8 17.6 -.6 3.4 12.4
All items less
energy............ 2.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2
Food.............. 2.8 1.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 4.9 7.5
All items less food
and energy........ 2.7 1.9 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.4
The food and beverages index rose 0.6 percent in September, the
second straight such increase. The index for food at home, which rose 0.8
percent in August, increased 0.6 percent in September. The index for
cereals and bakery products turned up in September, rising 1.1 percent
after a 0.1 percent decline in August. The indexes for nonalcoholic
beverages and other food at home accelerated in September, increasing 0.7
percent and 1.1 percent respectively after increases of 0.4 percent and
0.7 percent in August. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose
1.0 percent in September, the third straight such increase. Within this
group, the index for eggs increased 2.6 percent in September after a 5.7
percent decrease in August, while the index for beef and veal decelerated,
rising 0.2 percent in September after a 2.4 percent increase in August.
Turning down in September were the indexes for dairy and related products,
down 0.6 percent after rising 0.4 percent in August, and for fruits and
vegetables, down 0.5 percent after advancing 2.1 percent in August. The
indexes for food away from home and for alcoholic beverages both increased
0.5 percent in September.
The index for housing declined 0.1 percent in September, the same
decline as in August. The shelter index increased 0.3 percent in
September after a 0.1 percent increase in August. The index for rent
increased 0.3 percent for the third month in a row while the index for
owners' equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent increase in
August. The index for lodging away from home turned up in September,
increasing 0.9 percent after a 1.1 percent decrease in August. The index
for household energy declined 3.4 percent in September, but was still 13.1
percent above its September 2007 level. Within household energy, the
indexes for fuel oil and for natural gas fell sharply, declining 7.8
percent and 8.3 percent respectively, while the index for electricity fell
0.9 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations, which
rose 0.2 percent in August, increased 0.5 percent in September.
The transportation index declined in September, falling 0.6 percent
after a 1.5 percent decrease in August. The index for gasoline decreased
0.6 percent following a 4.2 percent decrease in August. (Prior to
seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.5 percent in September but
were 31.7 percent above their September 2007 level.) The index for new
vehicles declined for the second straight month, falling 0.7 percent after
a 0.6 percent decrease in August. The index for used cars and trucks fell
sharply in September, declining 1.8 percent after a 0.3 percent fall in
August. The index for public transportation decreased 1.0 percent in
September after a 1.1 percent increase in August, as the index for airline
fare turned down, declining 1.7 percent in September after rising 1.6
percent in August. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for airline
fare decreased 3.6 percent in September but was 17.5 percent higher than
in September 2007.)
The index for apparel declined 0.1 percent in September after
increasing 0.5 percent in August. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel
prices rose 4.1 percent in September and were 1.4 percent higher than in
September 2007.)
The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in September after rising 0.2
percent in August, and was 3.2 percent higher than a year ago. The index
for medical care commodities--prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs,
and medical supplies-increased 0.2 percent in September after a 0.1
percent increase in August. The index for medical care services increased
0.4 percent in September. The indexes for professional services and for
hospital and related services increased 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent,
respectively.
The index for recreation increased 0.2 percent in September,
following a 0.5 percent increase in August. The index for video and audio
rose 0.1 percent in September after a 0.5 percent increase in August. The
indexes for pets, pet products and services rose 1.0 percent in September
and the index for photography rose 0.8 percent. The index for recreation
services decreased 0.1 percent in September.
The index for education and communication increased 0.1 percent in
September after a 0.2 percent increase in August. The index for education
rose 0.4 percent in September. The index for college textbooks rose 1.0
percent after a 3.4 percent increase in August. The index for college
tuition and fees rose 0.3 percent in September. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, charges for college tuition and fees rose 1.8 percent in
September and are up 6.7 percent since September 2007.) The communication
index declined in September, falling 0.2 percent for the second
consecutive month. Within communication, the index for telephone services
was virtually unchanged while the index for information technology,
hardware and services declined 1.1 percent.
The index for other goods and services increased 0.2 percent in
September, the same increase as in August. The index for tobacco and
smoking products was virtually unchanged and the index for personal care
rose 0.3 percent.
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers decreased 0.1 percent in September.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. ended ended
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Sep. 2008 Sep. 2008
All items.......... .4 .2 .7 1.2 .9 -.2 -.1 2.5 5.4
Food and beverages .2 .9 .3 .8 .9 .6 .6 8.7 6.1
Housing........... .5 .4 .5 .5 .7 .0 -.2 1.9 3.8
Apparel........... -1.2 .2 -.2 .0 .8 1.0 .0 7.6 1.7
Transportation.... .7 -.7 2.1 4.0 1.8 -1.7 -.7 -2.4 11.1
Medical care...... .1 .2 .1 .2 .1 .3 .3 2.8 3.3
Recreation........ .3 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .5 .2 4.7 2.2
Education and
communication.. .2 .4 .3 .5 .5 .2 .0 3.2 3.2
Other goods and
services....... .4 .4 .5 .6 .5 .2 .2 3.6 4.4
Special indexes:
Energy............ 1.9 -.2 4.5 6.8 4.0 -3.2 -1.7 -4.1 23.8
Food.............. .2 1.0 .3 .8 .9 .6 .6 8.9 6.3
All items less
food and energy .1 .1 .2 .3 .3 .2 .1 2.5 2.4
Consumer Price Index data for October are scheduled for release on
Wednesday, November 19, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups
such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-
month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.06 percent for
the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly
sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology,
and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.12 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the
All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that
the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between
0.08 and 0.32 percent. For the latest data, including information on how
to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance Estimates for
Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January 2005- December 2005" in the
CPI Detailed Report, February 2006. These data are available on the CPI
home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2006.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because
index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to
its
base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would
be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616
Percent Change
Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003x100
Equals percent change
0.3
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of
Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as
well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of
changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and
sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the
Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes
are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year,
the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from
January 2003 through December 2007 were replaced in January 2008.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data
at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
"Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of All items and 54 other aggregations is
derived by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components.
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon
certain statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their
seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally
adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of
the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes will be used before that period. Note: 48 of the 73 components
are seasonally adjusted for 2008.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2008, BLS adjusted 20
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected
food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For
example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the
effects of events such as damage to oil refineries from Hurricane Katrina.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment," located on our website at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and
Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Jeff Wilson at (202) 691-
6968, or by e-mail at Wilson.Jeff@bls.gov. If you have general questions
about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
