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Hospital Surge Model
Version 1.2

The Hospital Surge Model estimates the hospital resources needed to treat casualties arising from biological (anthrax, smallpox, pandemic flu), chemical (chlorine, sulfur mustard, or sarin), nuclear (1 KT or 10 KT explosion), or radiological (dispersion device or point source) attacks.

When you run the Hospital Surge Model, you select one of the above scenarios and specify the number of casualties you want to assume need to be treated in your hospital(s). The casualties are treated, as necessary, in the Emergency Department (ED), in the ICU, or on the floor. The hospital provides a standard level of care to all casualties.

The Hospital Surge Model estimates:

  • the number of casualties arriving at the hospital, by arrival condition (e.g., mild or severe symptoms) and day;
  • the number of casualties in the hospital, by unit (ED, ICU, or floor) and day;
  • the cumulative number of dead or discharged casualties, by day; and
  • the required hospital resources (personnel, equipment, and supplies) to treat casualties, by unit and day

Funding and leadership to support Hospital Surge Model was provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response through an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality contract. Abt Associates, Weill Cornell Medical College, and Gryphon Scientific developed the model. A Steering Committee helped guide the project and the MIDAS group provided data for the pandemic flu scenario. For additional information on the Hospital Surge Model, contact Tom Rich at Abt Associates or Sally Phillips at AHRQ. For technical support in using this web site, contact Tom Rich at Abt Associates. A description of the model and a user manual are also available.

 



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