Hospital Surge Model Version 1.2

User Manual

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The AHRQ Hospital Surge Model estimates the resources needed in your hospital(s) to treat casualties resulting from specific biological, chemical, nuclear, or radiological scenarios. For the selected scenario, the model estimates the number of casualties and the required hospital resources to treat the casualties.

This User Manual guides the user through the steps involved in running the Hospital Surge Model to select an available scenario, specify the number and/or type of casualties, and examine the output.

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Contents

Introduction
Step 1: Select a Scenario
Step 2: Specify Number and/or Type of Casualties
Step 3: Examine the Output
Appendixes

Introduction

The AHRQ Hospital Surge Model estimates the resources needed in your hospital(s) to treat casualties resulting from the following scenarios:

• Biological (anthrax, smallpox, or pandemic flu).
• Chemical (chlorine, sulfur mustard, or sarin).
• Nuclear (1 KT or 10 KT explosion).
• Radiological (dispersion device or point source).

Three additional scenarios—plague, food contamination, and a conventional explosive attack—are under development and will be included in the next version of the Hospital Surge Model.

When you run the Hospital Surge Model, you select one of the above scenarios and specify the number of casualties that your hospital(s) will have to treat. In the model, these patients are treated, as necessary, in the emergency department (ED), in the intensive care unit (ICU), or on a general medical/surgical bed ward ("the floor"). Eventually, casualties in the model are either discharged or die in your hospital(s). The Hospital Surge Model estimates the amount of resources (e.g., personnel, equipment, supplies) the casualties require while they are in your hospital(s). The model assumes that medical care is not degraded by the surge in patients or by resource constraints.

What the Hospital Surge Model Estimates

For the selected scenario, the Hospital Surge Model estimates:

• The number of casualties in your hospital(s) by hospital unit (ED, ICU, or floor) and day.
• The cumulative number of dead or discharged casualties, by day.
• The required hospital resources (personnel, equipment, and supplies) to treat casualties by resource, hospital unit, and day.

How to Run the Hospital Surge Model

The Hospital Surge Model is available at http://hospitalsurgemodel.ahrq.gov. Running the Hospital Surge Model involves three steps:

• Step 1: Select one of the available scenarios in the Hospital Surge Model.
• Step 2: Specify the number and/or type of casualties your hospital(s) will need to treat.
• Step 3: Examine the output. You can then either modify the scenario and re-run the Hospital Surge Model, or select a different scenario.

Additional Information

For a complete discussion of the Hospital Surge Model and its assumptions, go to the Hospital Surge Model Description, which is available on the Hospital Surge Model home page (http://hospitalsurgemodel.ahrq.gov).

For technical support on the Hospital Surge Model or on the Hospital Surge Model Web site, contact Tom Rich, Project Director (tom_rich@abtassoc.com).

Funding and leadership to support "Hospital Surge Model" was provided by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response through an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) contract to Abt Associates Inc. (Contract No. 290-20-0600-011I, Task Order 1).

The opinions or points of view expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of AHRQ or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

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