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Step 1: Select a Scenario

Go to http://hospitalsurgemodel.ahrq.gov and select the "Start" button; the Scenario Selection Screen is displayed.

  • Select one of the scenarios, and then select the Next button to specify additional options for the scenario (go to "Step 2").
  • Select Help to display the User Manual (note: you may need to disable your pop-up blocker to view the Help text).

Scenario Selection Screen

Screen shot of the various scenario options on the Hospital Surge Model Web site that the user can select using radio buttons.

Version 1.2 of the AHRQ Hospital Surge Model includes ten scenarios 1

Biological

  1. The covert release of aerosol Bacillus anthracis through a city.
  2. The covert release of smallpox virus in a large indoor theater.
  3. A pandemic flu outbreak that spreads across the country. The Surge Model project team acknowledges the assistance of the MIDAS group in the development of this scenario.2

These three scenarios include both communicable and non-communicable diseases, a disease that is treatable with antibiotics and two that are not, and indoor and outdoor attacks.

Chemical

  1. The overt explosion of a liquid chlorine tank in a densely populated suburb.
  2. The overt release of the blister agent sulfur mustard at a large outdoor event.
  3. The semi-covert release of the nerve agent sarin in a crowded arena.

These three scenarios include both indoor and outdoor scenarios, as well as attacks with toxic industrial chemicals, blister agents, and nerve agents.

Radiological/Nuclear

  1. The overt detonation of 1KT of nuclear material (improvised nuclear device) in a city center.
  2. The overt detonation of 10KT of nuclear material (improvised nuclear device) in a city center.
  3. The overt release of cesium-137 dust (commonly referred to as a "dirty bomb" or radiological dispersal device) in a city center.
  4. The covert placement of a cesium-137 point source in a public place.

References

1. Three additional scenarios—plague, food contamination, and a conventional explosive attack will be included in the next version of the Hospital Surge Model.

2. For more information on the MIDAS group, go to http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Initiatives/MIDAS/

These four scenarios cover the threats posed by radionuclides, which can be dispersed in an extremely violent reaction (nuclear), more gently (radiological dispersal device, or RDD), or not at all (a radioactive point source).

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