000
FXUS62 KTAE 311941
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EXPECTED. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT AND
BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE
BEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THIS AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CUT OF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME RATHER STAGNANT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP TO A BROADER AND
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP
TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY THE BEST ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. DECENT MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL
GA EARLY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL BE HEDGING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL/GA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT
ALSO ACT TO STEAL SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TURN OUR WINDS
BRIEFLY BACK TO A DRIER NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ALL OF THIS WILL WORK
TO LOWER THE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. JUST AN FYI...WITH THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE...THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ADDED SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ON MONDAY WELL EAST OF I-75 ALONG THE NE FL/GA
COASTS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYING JUST
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST. DURING THIS TIME...ZONES TO THE WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER SHOULD BE DRY AS THEY REMAIN FAR REMOVED
FROM THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT. EAST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR)...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER/I-75. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LETS GO OF ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO SWING EAST ACROSS OUR ZONES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. FINALLY ON FRIDAY
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND MAY HINDER
THE EXTENT OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DROP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES UP. A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATO CU AT 3-4 THOUSAND FEET
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IN A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER MID ATLANTIC. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH AN INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGHER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT TO JUSTIFY A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE AREA TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  71  45  73  50  73 /   0   0  10  20  30
PANAMA CITY  72  50  74  54  75 /   0   0   0  20  20
DOTHAN       70  41  73  45  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALBANY       70  41  72  45  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
VALDOSTA     70  47  72  51  73 /   0   0  10  10  40
CROSS CITY   73  51  74  54  75 /   0   0  10  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...GIBBS
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WX...DUVAL