000
FXUS62 KTAE 011905
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE FEATURES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STILL
DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
AN EAST-WEST COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES IS
DIVIDING TWO HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS. CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES AT
17Z RANGED FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO NEAR 70 IN
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WERE BASICALLY NORTHEASTERLY. ALOFT...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST NEAR MOBILE. DRY AIR ALOFT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW. A SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE AREA OF MIDDLE
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CONTINUES TO THIN SOMEWHAT. RADAR
APPEARS TO BE VOID OF ECHOES EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT STUFF NEAR JAX.
MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IS REPORTING BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE
CLOUDS. NO THUNDER IS BEING REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
THE QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL THE UPPER LOW AFFECT OUR WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SEPARATED IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH PRODUCING A 1006MB SURFACE LOW
AND 569DM UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM
AT THE SAME TIME HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE LOW OFF MLB...AND A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKER TROUGH ALOFT. SREF (09Z) MEANS FOLLOWS THE NAM.
THE 00Z MREF MEANS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THE LOW DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTING THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MIGHT BE AN OUTLIER. HAVE NOT
SEEN 12Z EURO YET...BUT 00Z EURO SHOWED DEVELOPMENT WAY TO THE EAST
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. NO MATTER WHAT THE SOLUTION IS...IT
APPEARS THAT MAX LIFT AND Q-G FORCING FOR OUR AREA SHOULD OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 60 PERCENT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. POPS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY IF NAM
AND SREF ARE CORRECT.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE
LINGERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE ON MONDAY...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACCELERATE THE ENDING OF POPS OVER THE REGION BY A FULL 12-24 HRS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO BE ESSENTIALLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING HOLDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW FOR WED AND THU. IN ADDITION ...A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE SE U.S. ON WED AND THU WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS...WITH 80 DEGREE
MAXES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY ...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP TROF
TO HELP PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS THIS LATTER
TIME PERIOD WHERE THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN IN
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS WAS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE EURO ON LAST NIGHT`S 00 UTC RUN...BUT ITS 12 AND 18 UTC
RUNS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY ONLY TO SEE TONIGHT`S 00 UTC RUN COME IN
SLIGHTLY FASTER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT AD SAT
MORNING. THIS RUN IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE LAST 2 ECMWF RUNS...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO THIS PACKAGE. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON POPS (FRI-FRI NIGHT) AND TEMPS (BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS ON
SAT)...BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE GFS AND MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
CYCLE. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN WITH VFR CIGS ALREADY BEING SEEN AT VLD.
THESE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AND SPREAD WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT ONLY VLD STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN MVFR
RESTRICTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AFTER
18Z...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP FOR LIGHT RAIN AT
VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. CURRENT NUMBERS AT THE BUOYS SHOW
NORTHEAST WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 12 AND 19 KNOTS THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SEAS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 3.9 AND 4.6 FEET. WINDS HAVE NOT
DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS I EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE
COASTAL WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AT THE BEACHES
WITH VERY LITTLE SURF. STILL EXPECT THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL
WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE DIVISION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA HAS NECESSITATED THE EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
INTO AL/GA WHERE RIGHT AROUND FOUR HOURS OF LOW RH IS EXPECTED.
INCREASING MOISTURE TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  49  71  55  73  53 /  10  50  30  10  10
PANAMA CITY  53  76  57  76  58 /  10  30  30  10  10
DOTHAN       46  72  52  74  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
ALBANY       44  72  51  72  53 /   0  20  20  10  10
VALDOSTA     50  70  54  70  55 /  10  50  30  20  10
CROSS CITY   56  72  56  74  56 /  20  60  40  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALE...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
     TERRELL.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...WATSON
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GOULD