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000 FXUS62 KTAE 030220 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2008 .DISCUSSION...01 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROF JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS LIKELY THE PRECURSOR TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. A 1037 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION. UPPER AIR DATA AND VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AT 00 UTC THE 500 MB CENTER WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO TALLAHASSEE...JUST OFF TO THE WEST BASED ON THE 500 MB WINDS ON THE 00 UTC SOUNDING. THE PROFILE ALOFT HAS COOLED...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW UP TO 1.11 INCHES. WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION TOMORROW...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF STREAM...GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EARLY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE RULE FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS WELL SO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME TO THE POP FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THE WESTERN HALF IS PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST. CURRENT LOW TEMPS RANGE FROM 38 IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IN THE WEST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN TEMP GRID AND BRING CURRENT GRIDS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WILL HAVE THE UPDATES OUT SOON. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! && .AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DHN TO PFN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AT ABY...VLD AND TLH. ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW PROCEEDS INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN OUR AREA. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY CLIMBING THIS EVENING AS OUR BUOYS ARE EASILY INTO THE CAUTION RANGE ALREADY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE NOCTURNAL SURGE. IN FACT...OBSERVATIONS ARE JUST ABOUT AT ADVISORY LEVELS NOW AS OF 02Z. HOWEVER...HOW MUCH OF THE INCREASE IN WINDS IS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA OF THE BUOYS IS UNCERTAIN. WILL WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 03Z AND THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS IS NEEDED. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...WATSON REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY