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000 FXUS62 KTAE 300058 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 830 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .SYNOPSIS... AT 8 PM EDT...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE TRI-STATE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM MID 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S PANHANDLE COAST. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATES THAT LOCAL AIRMASS MODESTLY MILDER AND MOISTER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM. AT UPPER LEVELS... AMPLIFIED CONUS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY TROUGH OFF PAC NW...A RIDGE OVER THE ERN ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS...AND AN UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH NOW EXITING EASTERN SEABOARD WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER QUEBEC LIFTING NEWD...WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. IN BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH...SINKING NNW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REFLECTED IN REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS...I.E. TAE WITH BONE DRY 0.35 INCH PWAT. AT LOWER LEVELS... ANALYSIS SHOWED A QSTNRY HIGH CENTER OVER SRN ALA BORDER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE LA-MS BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER HIGH OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING LIFTS NORTHEAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY AND THEN RIDGES SWD INTO SE CONUS THRU SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT LOCAL WINDS TO MORE NELY AND SLOWLY TIGHTEN GRADIENTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES DURING REST OF WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY) ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A RESULT OF DISSIPATING GULF AND DEVELOPING MID-ATLC HIGHS...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CALM UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AND COMBINED WITH NLY FLOW AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATION COOLING. WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD...COLD AIR ADVECTION WANING AND EXPECT MINS TO RUN 3-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. STILL...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SITES (TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT... CRESTVIEW...AND CROSS CITY) MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH FREEZING BY DAWN. LOCAL TALLAHASSEE AREA MIN TEMP STUDY SHOWS THAT WITH AIRPORT FORECAST NEAR FREEZING...SEVERAL NORMALLY COLDER OUTER AREA SITES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO FREEZING TEMPS WHILE DOWNTOWN SITES LIKE BROGAN MUSEUM MAY ONLY BOTTOM OUT 42-43 DEGREES. THUS DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING CONDITIONS..BUT IF ANY OCCUR THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND/OR NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... AS SECOND HIGH MOVES INTO MID-ATLC OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL RIDGE SWD THRU SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. THIS COMBINATION MAY CAUSE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER AT THAT TIME. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. KBDI VALUES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN SOUTH GEORGIA WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING REACHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN... CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY... GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...BARRY PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK