000
FXUS62 KTAE 310824 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

UPDATED FIRE WX AND LONG TERM.

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE BLANKETING THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE RE-STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE NOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AT
1035-1037 MB. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
DEGREE RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 30S...SO NO FROST IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. UPDATE...A BAND OF BKN SC IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE HAS NOW
FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF THE E FL BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE IN THIS AREA.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY RESPONDING TO
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FROM E TO W ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FCST IS REMAINING ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR NE WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL INITIALLY BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE KEEPING
POPS SILENT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FCST WILL
BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT PROGGED AT LOWER LEVELS AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO
INITIALLY DISPLACE...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS OUR CWA (ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY NEAR
THE N FL/S GA COASTLINE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED). THAT SAID...THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE FL BIG BEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CUT OF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND VERY SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME RATHER STAGNANT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP TO A BROADER AND
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP
TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY THE BEST ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. DECENT MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL
GA EARLY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS LIFT WILL BE HEDGING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL/GA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MIGHT
ALSO ACT TO STEAL SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TURN OUR WINDS
BRIEFLY BACK TO A DRIER NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ALL OF THIS WILL WORK
TO LOWER THE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. JUST AN FYI...WITH THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IN PLACE...THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ADDED SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH
THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ON MONDAY WELL EAST OF I-75 ALONG THE NE FL/GA
COASTS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYING JUST
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST. DURING THIS TIME...ZONES TO THE WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER SHOULD BE DRY AS THEY REMAIN FAR REMOVED
FROM THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT. EAST OF THE RIVER WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR)...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER/I-75. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LETS GO OF ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO SWING EAST ACROSS OUR ZONES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. FINALLY ON FRIDAY
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND MAY HINDER
THE EXTENT OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.
A PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHEN THIS MIGHT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINATE PLAYER IN
THE AREA`S WEATHER. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING AREAS OF
SCT-BKN STRATOCU FROM AROUND VALDOSTA DOWN TO PERRY AND CROSS CITY
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF EARLY TODAY. EXPECTING NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH DISSIPATING BACK TO
AROUND 5 MPH AFTER SUNSET. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MORE
PROLONGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCT-BKN STRATOCU FIELD RETURNING
TO THE SKIES ABOVE KTLH...KVLD...AND POSSIBLY KPFN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO BE
HOVERING IN THE 3-4 HR RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NE...IT NOW APPEARS TO BE A VERY BORDERLINE CALL
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. AFTER ANALYZING THE CURRENT GRIDS...DECIDED
TO UPGRADE ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...EXCEPT LAFAYETTE...TO A RED
FLAG WARNING...AND DROPPED THE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. DUE TO
THE VERY CLOSE CONDITIONS...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE
MODIFICATIONS TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  73  44  74  50  72 /  00  00  10  10  30
PANAMA CITY  72  48  73  53  73 /  00  00  10  10  20
DOTHAN       72  42  73  46  74 /  00  00  05  10  20
ALBANY       71  41  73  45  75 /  00  00  05  10  20
VALDOSTA     72  46  74  49  73 /  00  00  10  10  30
CROSS CITY   75  49  75  55  72 /  00  00  10  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...AND WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...MROCZKA