000
FXUS62 KTAE 030759
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EST MON NOV 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 AM EDT...SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS S/CNTRL GA TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM LOW 50S SE ALA/SW
GA TO NEAR 60 PANHANDLE COAST. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON
INDICATES THAT LOCAL AIRMASS MODESTLY MILDER AND MOISTER THAN SAME
TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NE 5-7 MPH.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
CONUS PICTURE OVERNIGHT HIGHLIGHTED BY TROUGH JUST OFF PAC
NW...ANOTHER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN/ROCKIES REGION...A RIDGE OVER
PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS. AS ERN PAC SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE LATER TODAY...DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO HIGH PLAINS
SHUNTING RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH EWD WITH TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
INTO WRN ATLC. CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER AIR DATA AND VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LOW DRIFTING ENE ACROSS OUR REGION.
AT 06 UTC THE 500 MB CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. A
SPOKE OF ENERGY EAST OF THE LOW PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT...SPOKE/ASSOCD
PRECIP MOVED EAST OF CWA.

THE PROFILE ALOFT HAS COOLED...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEARBY...WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED WITH 00Z RAOB SHOWING THAT THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOW UP TO 1.11 INCHES. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NE
FL/SE GA TO THE COAST AND MEANDER DURING MORNING BEFORE MOVING NEWD
TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT..LEAVING DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
LOCAL REGION. RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A STRONG SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS(SEE EXTENDED
DISCUSSION).

AT LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROF JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE NE MOVING UPPER LOW ALREADY
INTERFACING WITH THIS TROUGH TO GENERATE THE BEGINNING OF A SURFACE
LOW AS INDICATED BY VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS (I.E. N FLOW WEST OF
TROUGH AND E FLOW EAST OF TROUGH). THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO NC COAST
THRU TUE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. SPECIFICALLY...A 1037
MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF POLAR JET...HIGH WILL DROP TO THE MID-ATLC COAST LATER
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS COMBINATION OF HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH WITH WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPMENT PLUS AND INCREASINGLY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL GENERATE INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. ITS WILL ALSO DRY OUT LOCAL AIRMASS BUT
...UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...MUCH MORE SLOWLY AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS
REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.05 IN PWAT AT 12Z
MON DROPPING TO 0.61 INCH PWAT AT 18Z.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)..
WITH DEEP LAYER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION THRU TOMORROW. UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES
ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN IT`S
WAKE. THEN...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ALONG ERN SEABOARD STARTS TO SLIDES EAST.
THUS GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND NO POPS THRU WED. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS MOVING SW UNDER ABOVE
NORMAL NE FLOW THRU TUES MORNING WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLOUDY ERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATUS QUO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING EAST
COAST SYSTEM. HOWEVER COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...HIGHER SFC
DEWPOINTS...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER FROM
E-W WILL RESULT IN MILDER NIGHTS AND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF APALACHICOLA RIVER.

TODAY...INLAND HIGHS FROM LOW 70S UNDER CLOUDY EAST TO MID 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY WEST. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING SW...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
GOOD BET TONIGHT MAINLY ERN ZONES.

TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING...INLAND HIGHS IN MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...INLAND HIGHS MID-UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH WITH AXIS TRANSLATING FROM THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE TROUGH THEN
MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING
ZONAL OVER THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AS FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS DON`T
LOOK IMPRESSIVE...ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME
RAIN WITH THIS FRONT. WILL BUMP POPS UP AT LEAST INTO THE MID RANGE
CHANCE CATEGORY. OUR BRIEF WARM SPELL WILL COME TO AN END WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR
MOST TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AT VLD AND
ABY AND POSSIBLY TLH. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS BY LATE
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...AND NEW ENGLAND HIGH BEGINNING TO WEDGE DOWN EAST
COAST...LOCAL NE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED. HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS
THAT WERE AROUND 20 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT HAVE INCHED DOWN
LAST 3-4 HRS TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL DOWNGRADE
OFFSHORE SCA TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH NO HEADLINES NEARSHORE.
AS LOW MOVES NNE THRU TUESDAY...GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX WITH LIGHTER
WINDS PREVAILING BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  76  54  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  76  58  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       74  52  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       74  53  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     73  55  73  51 /  10   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   76  54  75  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

BLOCK/BARRY