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000 FXUS62 KTAE 031857 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 157 PM EST MON NOV 3 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW WEST OF THE LOW IS PUSHING A CU FIELD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE WRAPAROUND...BUT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EAST COAST STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH WITH AXIS TRANSLATING FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AS FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RAIN WITH THIS FRONT. WILL BUMP POPS UP AT LEAST INTO THE MID RANGE CHANCE CATEGORY. OUR BRIEF WARM SPELL WILL COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ANY CLOUD CIGS (AOA FL030) WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM KVLD TO K40J AND POINTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE NELY AROUND 10 KTS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KABY AND KVLD, AND MVFR-IFR CIGS AT KTLH, KPFN AND KDHN. THESE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TUESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT AT KPFN. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT MAY APPROACH THE FL CRITERIA (SUB-35 PERCENT) WED AFTN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 54 76 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 58 74 58 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 52 74 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 52 74 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 54 73 50 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 54 75 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CAMP/JAMSKI/BARRY