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000 FXUS62 KTAE 011332 AAB AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE FEATURES THIS MORNING SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM VIRGINIA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN BACK UP INTO CANADA. THE FRONT SEPARATES 30-40 DEGREE AIR FROM 20-30 DEGREE AIR. CLOSER TO HOME...MORNING TEMPERATURES AT 12Z RANGED FROM 40 TO 50 ACROSS THE CWA. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND NORTH FLORIDA. ALOFT...WV IMAGERY PEGS THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN MISSISSIPPI WITH A SMALL MOISTURE BUBBLE. THE LOWEST HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS AT JAN...AT 578DM. SAW A FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING EARLIER IN ARKANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. DRY AIR ALOFT IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. AN AREA OF MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE COAST EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BACK AS FAR WEST AS VLD. JAX`S SOUNDING SHOWS MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN TAE...AND DEEPER TOO...TO 650MB. && .UPDATE... CLOUDS KEPT THE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. PROBABLY MISSED THE MIN TEMP AT VLD BY 5 DEGREES OR SO. OVERALL...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TOWARDS THE EAST FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SHOWER OR TWO CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. && .MARINE... EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. CURRENT NUMBERS AT THE BUOYS SHOW NE WINDS RUNNING BETWEEN 12 AND 21 KNOTS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 3 AND A LITTLE OVER 4 FEET. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE VLD TERMINAL. BUT THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FURTHER WEST IS LIMITING HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL GET TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...A LARGER AREA OF THESE MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MVFR CIG RESTRICTION AT VLD TOWARD DAYBREAK. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE KTAE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING COMPARED TO JUST 12 HOURS AGO. OUR CURRENT WARNING DOES LOOK GOOD IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA COUNTIES SINCE THEY ARE FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE INCOMING MOISTURE.. SOME DRIER AIR IS ALSO PRESENT OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...BUT CRITERIA THERE IS A LITTLE MORE STRINGENT. IF THE INCOMING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST MOVES SLOWER THAN PREDICTED...THESE COUNTIES MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...WATSON AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY