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U.S. Efforts to Stop the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction -- Graphs and Map[Accompanying graphs and map of Under Secretary John R. Bolton's June 4 testimony before the House International Relations Committee] This Figure (left) shows a comparison of the amounts of thermal energy that could be extracted from these speculative uranium resources (assuming a "once-through" fuel cycle) compared to Iran’s PROVEN oil, gas, and coal reserves. Of Iran’s total energy reserves of 1394 quadrillion BTU, uranium constitutes only 0.43% (0.0043 fraction) of that total. Uranium represents only 0.7% of the 829 quadrillion BTU available from Iran’s proven, inexpensive natural gas reserves. Compared to its clean-burning natural gas reserves, this Figure clearly illustrates the insignificance of Iran’s uranium resources for commercial power production. On the other hand, it takes about 200 kg of natural uranium to produce 1 kg of highly-enriched uranium. If you consider that maybe 25 kg of highly-enriched uranium are needed to make one nuclear weapon, then the natural uranium feed requirement for a nuclear weapons program is on the order of 5 MTU per weapon. Clearly, Iran’s uranium resources, though very limited, are very significant for its nuclear weapon program.
This Figure (left) shows the estimated amounts of natural gas flared in Iran each year. In 2000, this was 371 billion cubic feet, or 9.6% of Iran’s gross production of natural gas that year. If recovered (instead of flared), this natural gas could be used to fuel electrical power plants totaling over 4,000 MW in nameplate capacity. (EIA data on the amount of natural gas flared each year in Iran lags by several years because of the time required for data collection, analysis, and reporting. The amount of natural gas flared in 2003 is expected to be at least as high as 370 billion cubic feet.) Although flaring of natural gas is not uncommon, Iran’s flaring rate seems excessive. For comparison, in 2000, estimated natural gas flaring rates as a percentage of gross production were only about 0.4% for the U.S., 1.5% for the U.K., 0% for Russia, and 1.0% for Saudi Arabia. As previously stated, the flaring rate for Iran is 9.6%. If Iran is really only after commercial energy, shouldn’t it’s first priority be to invest in facilities to recover this natural gas and utilize it? Would not using Iran’s scarce capital resources for construction of such facilities be more productive than their allocation to a very expensive nuclear program?
The above map shows North Korean Missile Ranges. |
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