Outlook

Reported increases in domestic and foreign production of methamphetamine should raise availability levels in domestic markets overall, exposing an increasing number of potential new users to the drug and sustaining the demand among established methamphetamine users. As a result, the consequences of methamphetamine use are likely to continue to rise as more users experience the negative health effects brought on by methamphetamine use.

Anecdotal law enforcement reporting, drug survey data, arrest data, and laboratory seizure data indicate that methamphetamine availability, production, and distribution have increased in the Northeast Region since 2002, a situation likely to continue in the near term. Most of the methamphetamine distributed in the Northeast currently is produced in laboratories in Mexico or California, and increases in availability and distribution likely will be driven by increased distribution by Mexican criminal groups that supply local midlevel and retail dealers. However, local methamphetamine production in low capacity laboratories has been increasing in the Northeast. Small-scale local production in the Northeast likely will increase sharply in the near term as methamphetamine use in the region increases, and established users or initiates to methamphetamine use become familiar with production methods and become their own sources of supply or even small-scale distributors. According to MTF data, past year methamphetamine use in the Northeast Region trended upward from 2002 to 2003 among eighth (0.8% to 1.7%), tenth (1.5% to 2.1%), and twelfth graders (1.6% to 1.8%).

Methamphetamine production in Mexico likely will continue to increase. Reported increases in bulk ephedrine and pseudoephedrine shipments from China to Mexico for use in Mexico-based superlabs and an apparent decrease in the amount of bulk pseudoephedrine diverted from Canada for use in California-based superlabs suggest that Mexican criminal groups will concentrate more large-scale methamphetamine production efforts in Mexico.

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