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National Drug Intelligence Center National Drug Threat Assessment 2007 October 2006 MethamphetamineStrategic Findings
OverviewMethamphetamine production and distribution trends are undergoing significant strategic shifts, resulting in new challenges to law enforcement and public health agencies. For example, marked success in decreasing domestic methamphetamine production through law enforcement pressure and strong precursor chemical sales restrictions has enabled Mexican DTOs to rapidly expand their control over methamphetamine distribution--even in eastern states--as users and distributors who previously produced the drug have sought new, consistent sources. These Mexican methamphetamine distribution groups (supported by increased methamphetamine production in Mexico) are often more difficult for local law enforcement agencies to identify, investigate, and dismantle because they typically are much more organized and experienced than local independent producers and distributors. Moreover, these Mexican criminal groups typically produce and distribute high purity ice methamphetamine that usually is smoked, potentially resulting in a more rapid onset of addiction to the drug. Recent precursor chemical controls have contributed to a sharp decrease in domestic methamphetamine production: Since April 2004, 44 states have restricted retail sales of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine products to varying degrees.3 In 2005 federal legislation also restricted retail precursor chemical sales. Retail sales restrictions--supported by sustained law enforcement pressure--have limited the amount of pseudoephedrine available to small-scale methamphetamine producers, resulting in a sharp decrease in the prevalence of small methamphetamine laboratories nationally. In fact, El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC) National Clandestine Laboratory Seizure System (NCLSS) data show that the overall number of reported methamphetamine laboratory seizures nationwide has decreased 42 percent from 10,015 in 2004 to 5,846 in 2005 (see Figure 1). Preliminary data indicate that this trend has continued in 2006, and the number of laboratory seizures will quite likely decrease further as more states implement similar restrictions--six more states and the District of Columbia are considering retail sales restrictions.
Precursor chemical restrictions and law enforcement pressure have forced most California superlabs to relocate: Restrictions on pseudoephedrine imports from Canada to the United States in 2003 resulted in an immediate and significant decrease in the number of reported domestic superlab4 seizures (see Figure 2). Many of these laboratories--primarily operated by Mexican criminal groups--relocated to Mexico, where bulk quantities of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine are more available. However, some Mexican criminal groups have remained in the United States to produce methamphetamine in superlabs, particularly in California, that accounted for 30 of 35 reported superlab seizures in 2005. Of the criminal groups that have remained, many have relocated their superlab operations to very remote rural areas, usually in the Central Valley region of California, in an attempt to decrease the risk of detection from sustained, intense law enforcement pressure. Although Mexican criminal groups have long produced methamphetamine on farms and in rural areas of California, this practice has increased since 2002 as law enforcement pressure and public awareness have increased in more populated areas. In fact, superlab seizures in urban areas are now somewhat rare, accounting for only 6 of 30 superlab seizures in California in 2005. By relocating virtually all superlab operations to rural areas with less law enforcement presence, Mexican criminal groups have been able to maintain significant methamphetamine production in California.
Methamphetamine production in Mexico has increased sharply; however, chemical restrictions may render current production levels difficult to sustain: There are no widely accepted estimates regarding the amount of methamphetamine produced in Mexico; however, ample law enforcement reporting and drug seizure data at the U.S.-Mexico border indicate a significant increase in methamphetamine (particularly ice methamphetamine) production in Mexico since 2003. Further production increases are unlikely in the near term, however, and sustaining the current high level of production in Mexico has become more difficult, since the Government of Mexico recently reduced ephedrine and pseudoephedrine imports 40.8 percent from 224 metric tons in 2004 to 132.5 metric tons in 2005 (with a goal of 70 metric tons for 2006). Attempts to defeat the increasing chemical restrictions in Mexico will quite likely include routing chemical shipments through transit countries, particularly in Central and South America, for subsequent smuggling into Mexico. Methamphetamine distribution by Mexican criminal groups is expanding to sustain markets previously supplied by local production, particularly in midwestern and eastern states: As methamphetamine production in small-scale laboratories has decreased nationally since 2004, Mexican criminal groups have expanded direct distribution of methamphetamine, even in many smaller communities. For example, in midwestern states such as Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio, where methamphetamine laboratory seizures have decreased significantly--in some states by more than 55 percent--Mexican criminal groups have gained control over most distribution of the drug. In fact, the Midwest High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (HIDTA) reports that in cities such as Des Moines and Sioux City,5 where methamphetamine production and distribution previously were controlled by local independent traffickers, Mexican criminal groups, primarily distributing ice methamphetamine, have supplanted independent traffickers. Law enforcement reporting confirms a similar trend throughout much of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Florida/Caribbean, Southeast, and West Central Regions. These groups pose an increased challenge to local law enforcement because they are often Mexico-based, well-organized, and experienced drug distributors that have been successful in blending into somewhat insular Hispanic communities or among Hispanic workers employed in the agricultural, landscaping, construction, and meatpacking industries. The ability of Mexican criminal groups to continue the expansion of methamphetamine distribution into more communities in the eastern United States appears to be limited primarily by their capability to further expand methamphetamine production in Mexico. Increased ice availability is most likely contributing to increased methamphetamine addiction: Since 2001 the availability of Mexico-produced ice methamphetamine--a high purity form of methamphetamine that typically is smoked--has increased sharply in most U.S. methamphetamine markets. According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), smoking methamphetamine may result in more rapid addiction to the drug than snorting or injection because smoking causes a nearly instantaneous, intense, and longer-lasting high. Although casual use of methamphetamine appears to be stable (see Table 1 and Table 2 in Appendix B), national-level data show a rise in the number of methamphetamine-related treatment admissions and methamphetamine-dependent individuals nationwide (see Figure 4 and Figure 5), particularly since ice availability began to increase. In fact, even prior to the current influx of ice methamphetamine, users were increasingly choosing smoking as their primary mode of administration (see Figure 3). Increased rates of smoking ice methamphetamine, leading to increased rates of addiction will further strain the resources of public health agencies, particularly drug treatment facilities in smaller communities.
Intelligence GapsThe extent of precursor chemical diversion and trafficking from sources of supply in Asia is unclear. Intelligence and law enforcement reporting confirms the shipment of wholesale (multiton) quantities of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine--often repackaged with vague labeling and disguised as legitimate business transactions--to Mexico from source areas in Asia, particularly Hong Kong and mainland China. However, there are relatively few data available to measure such activity, thereby impeding a full and accurate assessment of the situation. There are no generally accepted methamphetamine production estimates or comprehensive laboratory seizure data for most foreign countries. This lack of data limits the accuracy of analysis regarding foreign production in areas of particular interest, such as Mexico, Canada, and Asia. End Notes
3. National Alliance for Model State Drug Laws, as of July 28,
2006. |
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