Outlook

Mexican DTOs are likely to increase their involvement in the trafficking of large quantities of cocaine, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the W/B HIDTA region over the next year. These organizations have ready access to wholesale quantities of illicit drugs and well-established transportation and distribution networks extending into the region from southwestern and southeastern states. Additionally, they are strengthening their relationships with Colombian, Dominican, and Asian DTOs at the wholesale level and with Hispanic and African American street gangs at the retail level. Mexican DTOs have gradually been expanding their control over drug markets in the region, and this growth is likely to continue as these DTOs look to increasing supplies in the more urban areas of the region, where their presence is currently minimal but drug demand is high. Additionally, an increase in the Hispanic population in the region over the past several years will allow Mexican criminals with ties to drug source and transit countries to operate more easily. If these DTOs continue to expand further in the region, the availability of ice methamphetamine will very likely rise.

Competition among Mexican, Colombian, and Dominican DTOs for control of wholesale cocaine distribution in the region, rather than resulting in violence, is likely to result in stronger working relationships. Colombian and Dominican DTOs have already forged business relationships with Mexican DTOs to transport large volumes of illicit drugs to various domestic locations, including markets in the region, an arrangement that allows the Colombian and Dominican traffickers to insulate themselves from high-risk smuggling activities and gives Mexican DTOs a larger role in the high-profit drug trade. Closer ties would allow Colombian and Dominican DTOs to further increase their role in marijuana distribution. Stronger relationships between Mexican DTOs and Colombian traffickers could lead to increased availability of cocaine in the region, a development that might result in marginally lower prices and increased demand.

The availability of Mexican ice methamphetamine is likely to rise in the HIDTA region in the next year, with a corresponding increase in abuse. The region has an established population of stimulant abusers, who might be enticed to switch to methamphetamine if the drug were to become more available and prices were to decrease. Mexican DTOs, which are gaining prominence in the region and have ready access to large quantities of high-potency ice, are very likely to transport more methamphetamine to the area to create a new market for the drug. An increase in the number of abusers addicted to ice methamphetamine could severely compromise the ability of treatment agencies in the W/B HIDTA region to provide adequate care, not only because they are already overtaxed as a result of the large number of cocaine and heroin abusers, but also because the highly addictive nature of methamphetamine often leads to high rates of recidivism. Local production is unlikely to expand in the W/B HIDTA region in the coming year, particularly if proactive legislation is enacted throughout the region to more rigorously control the availability of precursor chemicals.

Marijuana abuse is prevalent in the W/B HIDTA region, and now that the established market of abusers has been exposed to high-potency marijuana, primarily supplied by Vietnamese criminal groups, its popularity will quite likely continue to rise. To meet increasing demand, availability of both imported and locally produced high-potency marijuana can be expected to grow and competition among distributors to rise. Increased competition could drive prices down, further spurring demand for high-potency marijuana throughout the region. Indoor cultivation of high-potency cannabis, including the number of sophisticated hydroponic grows, may increase significantly in the region, particularly in urban and suburban residential areas.

Pharmaceutical abuse in the W/B HIDTA region is likely to escalate over the next year and will be driven by the growing popularity of these drugs among young adults and adolescents and the wide availability of these drugs through Internet pharmacies and personal networks. Growing numbers of prescription drug addicts could eventually expand the market for heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine. The ease with which licit drugs are acquired for abuse by all socioeconomic and age groups, along with the preference of many heroin addicts for prescription narcotics, including oxycodone, methadone, and fentanyl, could increase the immediate and long-term demand for diverted pharmaceuticals in the region.

The arrests of several major PCP producers in southern California (the primary source for PCP dealers in the HIDTA region) may contribute to a decrease in PCP availability in the W/B HIDTA region. PCP production decreased during 2006 in the Los Angeles area, largely as a result of the arrests of several major producers. Most of the PCP available in the United States is produced by African American criminal groups and street gangs in the Los Angeles HIDTA region.

Stored value cards are likely to be used more often over the next year by traffickers to launder drug proceeds. Stored value cards physically resemble traditional credit or debit cards and can be used to access both global debit and ATM networks. Stored value card programs often accept applications without face-to-face verification of cardholder identity, taking applications online or by fax. Funds can be prepaid by one person and withdrawn by another through ATMs anywhere in the world; multiple cards can be issued for a single account. These cards provide a convenient way to launder money because they are an easily transportable and virtually anonymous way to store and access cash.

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