Iraq: Post Referendum Update

11:00 A.M. EDT

MR. BAILY: Ambassador Jim Jeffrey, who is the Secretary's Senior Advisor on Iraq. He'll give you a brief opening statement and then be happy to ask your questions.

Ambassador Jeffrey.

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Thank you, Jess. Good morning, everybody. It's a pleasure to be here and it's a pleasure to talk about a subject as important as the referendum in Iraq and the political process.

First of all, a brief review on what happened several days ago. You've all been following it so I won't take much of your time. We see this as a historic day. It was a great day for democracy; it was a great day for the Iraqi people. It was a very bad day for the terrorists who tried to disrupt the voting.

In terms of comparing what happened on Sunday with the 30th of January, which I'm aware because I was there then, we see approximately a million or a million-plus more voters. And in particular, we saw a much stronger turnout of Sunni voters -- in Fallujah alone, a hundred thousand and in the Baghdad area, the Mosul area, Diala, Tikrit -- in most areas, other than the western Anbar province, we saw a very, very strong turnout. That is a huge difference and a strategic difference from January of 2005.

Of course, the results we will not know, but in any case, this is a democratic process. There will be elections on the 15th of December regardless of whether the constitution does pass a referendum, in which case the elections will be under the new constitutional system. Or if the constitution were not to pass, then under the Transitional Administrative Law and the UN Security Council 1546 process, the country would have elections for a parliament that would then have to come up with a new constitution and go through the referendum process once again.

Finally, before I take your questions, I think we all owe a debt of gratitude to the United Nations, which played a key role in working with the Iraqi Electoral Commission, the IECI, going around the country, putting in over a hundred people and a top team of elections advisors just like they did in January. And they really made a great deal of difference.

So thank you very much for being here today and I'm ready to take your questions.

MR. BAILY: If I could remind you to state your name and your news organization and somebody will pass a mike. We'll go to the front row here to Turkey.

QUESTION: Umit Engisoy, NTV, Turkey. Two quick questions. After this point, what do you want Turkey and the other neighboring countries to do?

And secondly, do you have anything to say about claims about election rigging?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: First of all, as we have done in the past, we want the countries in the region to play a key role in supporting the democratic political process in putting pressure on those countries -- Iran and Syria -- that are not being helpful in terms of controlling borders and political processes. And in the case of those countries that have made pledges at Madrid to work with the Iraqis to carry out those pledges. In the case of those countries that have significant Iraqi debt to meet the Paris Club's 80 percent debt forgiveness standard that was set a year ago. In the case of Turkey, in particular, Turkey has played a very helpful role, has received high level visits including the Prime Minister from Iraq and that's a particularly important relationship.

But, frankly, the relationship with of all Iraq's neighbors, immediate neighbors and further in the Arabic and Muslim world, is very, very important to the Iraqi people and to us as a partner of the Iraqis as well as many of the neighbors. So we are working very, very closely with them. I was recently in the region and visited six countries. We have a three-way dialogue with the Turkish Government and the Iraqi Government on the PKK issue. And we are continuing very extensively to press the regional angle here.

In terms of election irregularities, we've seen so far fewer reports of election irregularities than we saw in January. The IECI, supported by the UN, will look into them. We don't have any specific indications, one way or the other, whether they are, in fact, correct.

QUESTION: My name is Khaled Dawoud, correspondent for Egypt Al-Ahram paper. Again, can you explain to us why it is taking such a long time to release the results, considering that it's just a "yes" or "no" vote. And again, also can you clarify the statement of Secretary Rice concerning that the constitution has been passed already and the protests that came out after that from the Iraqi side itself?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Well, I think you should go back and check the transcript of what she said, which was that, "Preliminary indications from the field were that it looked like it was going to pass." She was very cautious and, you know, we cannot make an independent decision. That decision has got to be determined by the Iraqi authorities after they have finished, supported by the UN, doing a tally of all of the results from the 18 provinces. We never expected this to happen before, at a minimum, Wednesday. There are additional checks that the UN is making now based upon, and you've all seen the stories, the standard rule that whenever you get more than a 90 percent one way or another in a vote, you need to go and check the tally sheets and such. And the UN is doing that and that may take several more days.

In addition, I would point out that it took the better part of a week to get even preliminary results from the elections in January. And it took several weeks for the IECI to officially certify the results. So, you know, despite the logistical capabilities of the Iraqis, and you have to look at what they've done, to put together twice, under horrific conditions, country-wide elections, it does take some time.

MR. BAILY: We can go right here.

QUESTION: [Tamam] Al-Barazi from Alwatan Alarabi magazine. Sir, the Saudi Foreign Minister expressed his concern about "handing over Iraq to Iran." So in light of this referendum, which everybody said that they will, you know, consolidate the allies of Iran. How can you allay the fears of the Arab in the region?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Well, first of all, by constant contacts and discussions. I was in Saudi Arabia and met with the Foreign Minister and other officials two weeks ago. Ambassador Khalilzad was there. Ambassador David Welch, our Assistant Secretary, was then there a few days later, so we have an extensive dialogue with both the Saudis and other friends in the region on just these sorts of things.

We take any expression of concern about Iran very seriously because we have our own very significant concerns about Iran's role in the region, be it supporting terrorism, be it in Iraq, be it human rights violations, be it its position on the Palestinian-Israeli political process or be it weapons of mass destruction.

So therefore we are certainly an unlikely candidate to be supporting the expansion of Iranian influence. We do believe that it is very important for Iraq to have normal relations with all of its neighbors, including Syria and Iran, and it is very important for those neighbors to behave. We have problems with Iran. The British have spoken out at the highest levels. We are also speaking out and we're going to watch that carefully.

Nevertheless, we do not think that a democratic process that allows people of the many diverse religious and ethnic groups that we have in Iraq to express themselves is tantamount to turning the country over to foreigners. We think that Iraqis, regardless of their religion and regardless of their ethnic background, are by and large patriotic Iraqis who will do, if we trust them, what's necessary to keep their country strong and free.

QUESTION: [Joyce Karam, Al Hayat] Yes, sir. How do you read the rejection of the constitution in two Arab Sunni provinces especially given that they clearly rejected the federal state that's in the constitution? How are you going to deal with that? And if the constitution does not pass in Nineveh, do you fear a civil war or are you going to sponsor negotiations with Arab Sunnis?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: First of all, we -- the United States is not going to deal with this. This is an Iraqi political process. There are many international actors -- the United Nations; the surrounding countries -- we talked about them; we; other members of the coalition; the European Union; NATO -- who are involved and who all provide advice in various forms and ways. But the Iraqis will have to deal with this.

And my first comment is the most important thing is that the people of Anbar and Saladin Province, the two you mentioned, did vote. By and large they did not vote in January. So that's the first thing we should focus on and that is a very, very important, positive thing.

Secondly, regardless of whether the constitution passes or fails, the main issue that you've raised that seems to be the main concern among Sunni Arabs in that area is the question of the expansion of federalism, not from the provincial level because nobody has a problem, as far as I can see, about the constitutional provisions for each province having powers rather similar to those of the American states of the German "linder," but rather, the formulation of larger entities with those same powers in the south, for example. And that is an issue, first of all, that has been, if the constitution passes, pushed back to the next parliament, a parliament that should be even more representative of the Iraqi people if everybody votes in December as they have voted this month, to come up with a law that will determine under what circumstances that will be done.

In addition, as part of the final set of compromises, listening to our Sunni friends from that area, the Iraqi parliamentary parties agreed to a one-time review of constitutional provisions to take place on an urgent basis within four months of the new parliament coming into power in the end of December, beginning of January. So there are checks and balances if the constitution succeeds. If the constitution were to fail -- and I'm not predicting this -- if the constitution were to fail then, of course, the new parliament again, we presume more representative of the Iraqi people, including the Sunni Arabs, would have to draw up a new constitution, generally along the lines of the procedure that occurred before.

QUESTION: [Joyce Karam, Al Hayat] You don't fear a civil war?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Well, okay. On the civil war -- about ten years ago, I was involved in the civil war in Bosnia. That was a civil war -- a country one-tenth the size in population and geographic spread of Iraq -- a 100,000 killed a year. We, obviously, are concerned, as are Iraqis, about every possible contingency, every possible situation. But the thing that we do put our hope and our faith in is the strength of the Iraqi population, their basic decency and the fact the overwhelming majority of these people want to live in peace and I have yet to see any evidence that that is not the case. As long as that is so, we think that the Iraqis can find ways to avoid these sorts of situations. I'm trying to avoid that word so I hope I've succeeded.

MR. BAILY: The gentleman, far back there.

QUESTION: Thank you, sir. My name is Omar Razft, BBC out of UK. We have noticed that with every step of the democratic process sponsored by the United States there are more divisions religiously and -- religious and sectarian divisions in the Iraqi society itself. So the constitution campaign was running under religious and sectarian slogans. The Arab Sunnis are more -- there are more radical Arab Sunnis now and there are more radicals on the Shia side as well.

Do you think that this, by the end of this democratic process, we will find -- we will not find a unique united Iraq or you are not concerned that -- you are sure that there is, of course, the democratic process will be positive on the entity of Iraq? Thank you.

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Let me start with the last question. Yes, I do believe that we have every expectation and every hope that we will arrive at a unified, democratic, pluralistic and federal Iraq, which are the four adjectives that are listed in the UN Security Council resolution, and we take all four of them seriously and urge others to do so.

That brings me to my second point. You said, "Sponsored by the U.S." I reject the position. We didn't sponsor this. This was sponsored by the United States and UN Security Council Resolution 1546 and they backed up this despite a horrible tragedy of the UN Mission in Iraq two years ago by sending a large mission to Iraq to assist the Iraqis in carrying out the elections. We are very actively involved in this. We are providing most of the security forces in the coalition and we're very delighted with what's happened, but I think we have to keep the focus on the Iraqi process.

In terms of more divisions, again, I would challenge the basic assumption. Back in January, the Sunni Arabs by and large boycotted this political process. This time they came out in large numbers. That's a step in the right direction. We're not there yet. We won't be there until we have a governmental system that truly reflects all of the various groups and until the violence ends. But I think this is a step in the right direction.

Now, you said that people are polarized, people are arguing with each other, people are taking up positions. Some of that is true, but a lot of that is what happens in a democratic system, particularly one under a great deal of stresses and strains. We see this in other countries. This is not necessarily a bad sign that people are speaking out, that they're expressing their desires and their concerns and their fears.

What I would say is, and some of you know Iraq certainly better than I, that these fears and divisions were always there. They were papered over by industrial strength oppression for decades, particularly by Saddam Hussein, until the malignancy spread into the region and the country had to be liberated from him. And now we're seeing some of these things bubble up and it's just natural.

QUESTION: My name is Munir Mawari from Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. Do you see any change in the Syrian position regarding supporting the political process in Iraq? They said that they're going to send an ambassador to Baghdad and we don't know if it's real change and ground?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Again, any step that any country takes to normalize relations with Iraq is very important and is to be welcomed. And the Syrians have taken several steps in the past. Nonetheless, the bottom line for us and for the Iraqis and for the international community is and should be, are the Syrians doing everything possible to stop the flood of foreign fighters, many of them suicide bombers, who flow into Iraq from Syria and, in many cases, devastate civilians and marketplaces and mosques on the streets with absolutely senseless violence. That has to be stopped. We're looking for a change in Syrian behavior. We have not yet seen it and we are impatient.

MR. BAILY: That one here.

QUESTION: Lambros Papantoniou, Eleftheros Typos, Greek Daily, Athens. Ambassador Jeffrey, how the new Iraqi constitution affects your policy vis-à-vis to the ambitions of the Kurdish people to create a separate entity in northern Iraq. It seems a lot of reporters say recently that the Kurdish leadership is moving to this direction for which the Turkish Government is very concerned, as you know?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Gee, which Kurdish leaders are you talking about? Perhaps Mr. Talabani who happens to be the president of Iraq. I mean, I've spent a great deal of time, as have had many other international visitors and folks who are working in Iraq with the Kurds and we consider our success after years of attempts by Saddam Hussein to stomp them out, of integrating them into the new Iraq to be one of the more successful efforts that have been achieved in the past several years.

Once again, I go back to the UN Security Council resolution: Democratic, federal, pluralistic and united. All four of them fit together. There are some people who like "democratic" and they don't like the others. There are many people who like "united" but they don't like "federal."

QUESTION: [Lambros Papantoniou, Eleftheros Typos, Greek Daily] You're not afraid even an autonomous (inaudible) to this effect?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: I think we're very pleased with the political process and the role that the Kurds are playing in a federal, united, democratic Iraq.

MR. BAILY: Go to the back there.

QUESTION: Yes, good morning Ambassador. I'm Meredith Buel with Voice of America. To follow-up on your earlier remarks about the vote count, again Iraqi election officials announced Monday that there is a concern that up to 99 percent of vote turnout and vote totals in some Shiite and Kurdish areas of Iraq and that they want to investigate that. You said earlier that the UN was, in fact, investigating that. But does this at least raise the concern that this could, you know, could end up taking the entire results of the referendum into some sort of question? And could it further complicate efforts to bring the Sunnis into the mainstream political process and away from the insurgency?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: First of all, I'd have to go back and check the transcript. I don't think I used "investigation." Did I use investigation? I think they're examining or they're looking into this issue, which is normal whenever you have a threshold of more than 90 percent. That's normal, but it's also not unexpected and it's not just in Shia or Kurdish areas.

We saw in Fallujah a very, very strong turnout, which we're very happy with and a very, very high percent -- I would venture to guess, over 90 percent easily -- of "no votes." And certainly in the January 30th elections, we did see in certain areas in -- not in uncertain areas in the south very, very strong majorities voting for either the Candle* list that the Shia put together or the joint PUK, KDP Kurdish list. Certainly, they went into the 90s as well.

But our point is let's look into it and see what happens. The rest of these flow from that. I think that if there are real allegations, they'll have to be dealt with. If there aren't real allegations, I don't think they'll have an impact on either the Sunni integration or the rest of the political process.

MR. BAILY: On the front here.

QUESTION: Thank you. Mounzer Sleiman, Almustaqbal Al Arabi. What's your assessment of the Arab League mission of Amr Moussa and do you think that it has a chance to succeed and in the connection with the development in Iraq that still have some doubt about the result of the constitution referendum. At the same time, if you also, what do you think your expectation of the trial that's going to start tomorrow for the former President Saddam Hussein and his colleagues?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: We're delighted that the Arab League is showing so much interest in expanding its relationship with Iraq. We think it's overdue. I met with Secretary General Amr Moussa on my trip to the region. We were very much encouraged that he has taken this decision. We're delighted that he sent the advance team there. We were shocked that they were attacked as they went to visit the Western Baghdad Muslim (inaudible) Council headquarters and we're looking forward to the visit of Secretary General Moussa. And we believe that within the context of the UN democratization process that the Arab League can play a very important role, mobilizing support for Iraq and working to ensure that the political process is trusted by and open to everybody. I think that's a very important step.

QUESTION: -- the second part.

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: Of the trial. On the trial, this is an Iraqi decision. It's an Iraqi process. And Saddam Hussein is going to have to answer for his crimes and it is a good thing that the Iraqis are taking that responsibility on themselves and we'll just have to wait and see what comes out of this.

QUESTION: Mohammed [Elmenshawy] from TAQRIR Washington. First, I would like to know who will be supporting security for the trial of Saddam Hussein starting tomorrow. Will the U.S. troops be involved?

And second, on -- do you still believe that progress in Iraq so far help your ideal mission of transforming the Middle East for a more democratic region?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: On security for Saddam, the way that works, ever since Saddam -- shortly after Iraq became fully sovereign at the end of June 2004, assumed legal custody of Saddam Hussein because of the security situation in Iraq and because of the UN Security Council mandate that was given to the Coalition. The Coalition accepted a request by the Iraqi Government to provide some of the security for Saddam. It's a shared responsibility and it will be a shared responsibility at the trial. But he is maintained in a facility that is secured by U.S. troops but there are also Iraqi security and Iraqi officials there. But he is not an American or a coalition prisoner or a detainee. He is an Iraqi, basically, indicted prisoner.