Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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000 FXUS63 KGRR 300743 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008 LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION .SYNOPSIS...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) FORECAST CONCERNS MAINLY DEAL WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. SREF/GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT UP HIGH WHERE THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CI PRESENT. LATEST SREF HINTS AT ISOLD POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS...WE/RE GOING TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY/S TEMPS. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TO START WITH SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIES THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED. A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET LEADS TO TROUGHING OVER THE WRN U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP THROUGH THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN AND A LOW LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY THU. && .MARINE...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) WINDS WILL KICK UP ON THE LAKE TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS NEAR GALES OVER THE NRN NSH AREAS. AS SUCH WE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR NRN NSH ZONES AND A SCA TO THE SOUTH TO COVER HIGH WAVES. && .AVIATION...(1150 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008) VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDING SHOW THE LOW LEVEL AIR IS TO DRY FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG STORM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY...(342 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2008) NO HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO THE DRY WX REGIME. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ST JOSEPH TO PENTWATER. && $$ SYNOPSIS: 93 SHORT TERM: 93 LONG TERM: MJS MARINE: 93 AVIATION: WDM HYDROLOGY: 93
