Ready For the Next New England Hurricane? 

Release Date: August 14, 2007
Release Number: BRI-01-02

Low-Frequency, High-Impact

Hurricanes are born and bred in the tropics. Every so often, one of these storms reaches New England's corner of the world. We call them low-frequency, high-impact events. Hurricanes don't visit us often, but when they do, it's usually memorable.

Seven made landfall in New England during the 20th century. Four of those hurricanes, the 1938, 1944, and Carol and Edna in 1954, arrived as major hurricanes at Category 3 strength. Other devastating hurricanes struck the region in 1635, 1815 and 1869.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. New England's prime hurricane season is August and September.

The past assures us that we should expect hurricanes in our future. This includes Category 3 hurricanes. It would be unwise to assume that you have experienced a worst case scenario for your area. Each storm has a different track and a unique 'personality' and the prospect of sea level rise raises the stakes from coastal flooding.

Preparedness, Preparedness, Preparedness...

For a state and local emergency manager in New England, a hurricane may very well constitute the most memorable and challenging event in one's career. One should expect power out and shelters open for weeks across much of the region. Resources will be stretched. Mutual aid will not be practicable; adjacent communities will be facing the same scope of formidable destruction. Whole neighborhoods could be destroyed along the coast from the storm surge (especially vulnerable areas along Buzzards, Narragansett and Penobscot Bays). Hurricanes are an inland issue, too. A fast moving major hurricane can wreak incredible wind damage far inland, and even a weak tropical storm can cause disastrous inland flooding as per Diane in 1955.

Effective preparation leads to a more effective response, which in turn can lead to an easier recovery. Make sure plans are updated. Verify phone numbers. Consider how worst case scenarios will be handled. Intensively prepare the population. We have the unenviable task to motivate people to prepare for something they have never experienced (and perhaps never will have to experience in their lifetime). Individuals and families must have a plan and the knowledge of when to enact the plan before it's too late. That includes emergency managers and their families, too! Moreover, Federal, state, and local entities must work as partners to develop better tools, such as visualization of coastal and riverine inundation, to personalize the risk.

Response

The big ones come fast. Thus, preparedness plans must be in place long before a hurricane seriously threatens, and we cannot wait too long to set in motion those plans. Monitor any storm with a name in the Bahamas closely. Once a hurricane links with the stronger winds aloft in the mid latitudes, it can accelerate very rapidly up the coast (e.g. 1938 Hurricane accelerated to 60 mph). Time is of the essence.

When the tropics begin to get active, monitor these web sites:

Be sure to monitor the Hazardous Weather Outlook product from your local Weather Forecast Office.

Evacuation clearance times for our region are manageable, if people respond in time. We don’t want people evacuating from the coastal flood risk only to be traveling when trees and large branches are coming down. Coastal evacuation areas for different hurricane intensities can be found on this U.S. Army Corps of Engineers website: New England Evacuation Studies

Remember these basics for a New England hurricane. The heaviest rain will usually be to the left of the hurricane track. The strongest winds will be to the right of the track, and the highest storm surge along a land-falling coast will be to the right of the track.

Recovery

The storm's aftermath leaves a vulnerable population. A rainstorm, cold front, heat wave, etc. can become more than an inconvenience when people are left without shelter or limited food. Remember that the National Weather Service is a resource for you not only before and during a storm, but afterwards as well.

Debris removal will be a huge issue. By one estimate, the 1938 Hurricane downed 91 million trees in inland Windham County Connecticut alone! Power outages will idle gas pumps, ATM machines, refrigerators, and computers among other things we take for granted. And a population, used to rapid accommodation, will likely soon grow restless.

Concluding Thought

It's been 53 years since the last major hurricane made landfall in New England. A lot of building in vulnerable areas has occurred since then. Our population has grown less experienced with any hurricane, much less a major hurricane. We cannot allow complacency to grow and subject our residents and visitors to the same hard lessons of past storms. Whether a hurricane arrives or not on our watch, it is our duty to do what we can to promote preparedness. Are you ready?

Last Modified: Tuesday, 14-Aug-2007 15:43:08