National Situation Update: Friday, November 17, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather
West: A cold front will produce rain with snow in higher elevations over western Washington and northwestern Oregon. A second system will produce rain with snow in higher elevations over central California.
Midwest: The circulation around the low over Quebec will produce rain and snow around the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley.
South: High pressure over the region will produce generally pleasant Fall weather.
Northeast: The low that produced severe weather along much of the East Coast is moving over Quebec. The associated front extends south over New England and out to sea. Heavy rains produced by a trough extending south from the low will produce showers across Upstate New York, western and northern Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The cold front moving through New England will produce 1-to-3-inches of rain. There are numerous flood watches, flood warnings and wind advisories in effect. (National Weather Service, various Media Reports)
Severe Weather Outbreak Along the East Coast
A low pressure system moving up the East Coast has produced heavy precipitation, flooding and tornado activity. There are numerous reports of damage to homes and businesses, road closures and power outages.
Federal Actions:
- FEMA region III: Activated with hours of operation 7:00 am -7:00 pm est. ERT-a team on alert. Developing staffing plans to support multiple PDAs teams, if needed. Monitoring the travel trailers placed in response to DR-1649-PA and prepared for contingency plan for evacuations if necessary.
- FEMA region IV: PDA teams (11 PA and 18 personnel to support PA teams) are on standby to support the damage assessment process.
State preliminary damage assessments are underway with no request for Federal assistance at this time. (FEMA HQ, Region III, Region IV)
The U.S. Winter Outlook
Meteorologists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center have released the latest U.S. seasonal outlook and reiterated once again this winter is likely to be warmer than the 30-year norm (1971-2000) over much of the nation, yet cooler than last year's very warm winter season.
Overall, NOAA seasonal forecasters expect warmer than average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, the northern and central plains, the Midwest, the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic, as well as most of Alaska during December 2006 through February 2007. Near-average temperatures are favored for parts of the Southeast from Louisiana through North Carolina, while below-average temperatures are anticipated for Hawaii. Parts of the mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, the Southwest from Texas to California and the intermountain West have equal chances of warmer, cooler and near-normal temperatures this winter.
The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions across the entire southern tier of the country from central and southern California across the Southwest to Texas and across the Gulf Coast to Florida and the south Atlantic Coast. Drier-than-average conditions are favored in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the northern Rockies and Hawaii. Other regions, including Alaska, have equal chances of drier, wetter or near average precipitation. Averages vary from location to location and are based on the 1971-2000 base period. (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm )
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.
Central and Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Sergio is centered about 375 miles south southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Based on the current warning Sergio poses no threat to the United States
Western Pacific: No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Friday, 17-Nov-2006 08:03:14 EST