Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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000 FXUS63 KILX 290502 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1202 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 WESTERLY WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. HIGH PRSS RIDGE IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA AND MODEL FORECAST IS FOR THE RIDGE TO STAY WEST OF THE STATE UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NOR REASON TO UPDATE THIS EVENING. AUTEN && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24HRS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW EVENING. AUTEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 MUCH COLDER TEMPS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A LARGE TROF ALOFT OVER THE ERN CONUS. RIDGING OUT WEST CONTINUES WITH MODERATELY WARM TEMPS IN PLACE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PLAINS AND JUST INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER AMPLIFIED JET...THOUGH FORECAST IS QUIET THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE NULL WEATHER THAT WILL GO WITH MORE OR LESS A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR NOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS ISSUANCE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH MAJOR FREEZE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE FOR MUCH OF ILLINOIS...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GENERALLY SHRINKS DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO REORIENT FROM NE TO SW OVER THE GULF STATES. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WAA PATTERN SETS UP AND TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT IS DRY FOR ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FA. HOWEVER...MODELS BEGINNING TO PAINT QPF WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCATION EXPECTED TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CWA...SO SEE NO POINT TO GO IN WITH POPS JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL BE A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT... QUIET AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERCOME ANY HEATING THAT HAS BUILT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS APPEARANCE IN THE MODELS FOR TUES AND TUES NIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN POPS WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FOR TUES... AND ACROSS THE FA FOR TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
