Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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000 FXUS63 KILX 300158 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 858 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 858 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRSS RIDGE BEING RIGHT ONTOP OF US. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE REQUIRED TONIGHT. AUTEN && .AVIATION... ISSUED 555 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24HRS AT ALL TAF SITES...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS ADVECTING IN TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. AUTEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 126 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PROVIDE COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE MIDWEST TODAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ALOFT...RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS...WHILE DEEP TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 9 TO 10C RANGE...SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WORKING ITS WAY E/SE TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD ILLINOIS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...WITH THE 12Z OCT 29 NAM-WRF SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE KILX CWA. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IT AND RETURNING IT NORTHWARD BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT AND BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY...BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...THINK DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THINGS DRY AND JUST INTRODUCE A FEW MORE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 12Z OCT 29 GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z OCT 29 ECMWF CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE TIMING OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STILL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY...OPTING INSTEAD TO BEGIN INTRODUCING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BARNES && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
