Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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000 FXUS63 KILX 291115 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 615 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 220 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 FEW FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTH ALONG EAST EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOS GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR HIGHS. DID TREND A BIT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO COOLER WEEKEND WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NEWEST EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...WITH MORE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS DUE TO THE GFS MODELS PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...A FEATURE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN ECMWF INDICATES. HOWEVER...BOTH ARE SHOWING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. SINCE THESE ISSUES ARE BEYOND THE EDITABLE FORECAST PERIOD...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 HIGH PRES RDG FM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS IL TNGT AND BE LOCATED MI-GA BY 12Z THU. WLY/NWLY SFC WNDS AROUND 10 KT AFT 15Z TDY WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL BY 00Z THU. A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CLDS THRU THIS TAF PD. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
