Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47 48
49
50
000 FXUS63 KILX 240832 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 332 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 MAIN PUSH OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA FOR NOW THIS MORNING...WARM AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE PRECIP AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW. FORECAST ON TRACK SO FAR...MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SOME LINGERING THE PRECIP A BIT WITH RATHER COLD DRY AIR ON THE WAY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WITH PREFERENCE TO NAM HANDLING OF MORE ARCTIC FRONTS...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW MOST CLOSELY WITH THE NAM. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ON SUNDAY...A BRUSH WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE TROF AS IT EXITS TO THE NE...AND NRN ILLINOIS GOING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS A BIT COLDER THAN MOS...AS GUIDANCE STILL PULLING THE TEMPS UP CONSIDERING SOME DEEP COLD AIR MOVING INTO PLACE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW... SHOWERY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP CURRENT DRY SLOT IN PLACE OVER SW AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE LOW. THE WRAPPED UP LOW BECOMING MORE AMORPHOUS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ENDING SW TO NE AS A NEW TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NW...KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO THE NE. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MUCH COLDER TEMPS ON THE WAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THOUGH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE PREFRONT AND APPROACHING ADVSY CRITERIA IN THE NE. SINCE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST WINDS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK... SEE NO NEED TO BE THROWING OUT HEADLINES JUST YET. REMAINDER OF FCST A BIT LOWER THAN MOS AS MOS IS STILL CLINGING TO CLIMATOLOGY THAT IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR THE ARCTIC BLAST ON THE WAY. WARMING BACK UP A BIT RELATIVELY SPEAKING ON TUESDAY. HJS && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1155 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008 SKY COVER HAS BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. EVEN WITH RAIN OCCURRING...BASES ARE QUITE HIGH. EVEN VIS IS VFR CAT. THIS DOES NOT QUITE MATCH WITH RH FIELDS IN NAM MODEL BUT SEEMS TO BETTER MATH WHAT GFS RH FIELDS SHOW. SO NEW TAFS WILL HAVE BETTER CIG HEIGHTS UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN THE UPPER LVL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SO...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6KFT AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. COULD EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...AS SUN HEATS THIS AIR UP...SC WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WAS THE CASE OUT WEST UNDER THE LOW TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER IN OUR AREA TOMORROW. SO WILL BE KEEPING VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON. ALSO APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL BE MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS AND THEN RISE TO VFR FOR THE EVENING. VCSH WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
