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000 FXUS63 KILX 241732 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1027 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER IOWA THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST SHORT-WAVE OF INTEREST IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS PRECIP WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. 12Z MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW WOBBLING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH BULK OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE N/NW KILX CWA. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED POPS TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72...TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR E/SE. 15Z TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE...MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KGBG TO JUST SOUTH OF KSPI WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE N/NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE COVERED THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR -SHRA AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AS A FEW PATCHES OF CLEARING DEVELOPED. IN GENERAL...SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 1500FT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. ONCE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE...ALTHOUGH 12Z MODEL RH PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL IMPROVE CEILINGS TO 3500FT THIS EVENING...THEN EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 5000FT AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY EVENING AS THE LOW SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH. BARNES && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 MAIN PUSH OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA FOR NOW THIS MORNING...WARM AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE PRECIP AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW. FORECAST ON TRACK SO FAR...MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH SOME LINGERING THE PRECIP A BIT WITH RATHER COLD DRY AIR ON THE WAY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WITH PREFERENCE TO NAM HANDLING OF MORE ARCTIC FRONTS...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW MOST CLOSELY WITH THE NAM. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ON SUNDAY...A BRUSH WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE TROF AS IT EXITS TO THE NE...AND NRN ILLINOIS GOING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS A BIT COLDER THAN MOS...AS GUIDANCE STILL PULLING THE TEMPS UP CONSIDERING SOME DEEP COLD AIR MOVING INTO PLACE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW... SHOWERY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE. MODELS KEEP CURRENT DRY SLOT IN PLACE OVER SW AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE LOW. THE WRAPPED UP LOW BECOMING MORE AMORPHOUS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWERY ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ENDING SW TO NE AS A NEW TROF DIGS IN OVER THE NW...KICKING THIS LOW OUT TO THE NE. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MUCH COLDER TEMPS ON THE WAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THOUGH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE PREFRONT AND APPROACHING ADVSY CRITERIA IN THE NE. SINCE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST WINDS IS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK... SEE NO NEED TO BE THROWING OUT HEADLINES JUST YET. REMAINDER OF FCST A BIT LOWER THAN MOS AS MOS IS STILL CLINGING TO CLIMATOLOGY THAT IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR THE ARCTIC BLAST ON THE WAY. WARMING BACK UP A BIT RELATIVELY SPEAKING ON TUESDAY. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
