Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35 36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
000 FXUS63 KIND 240532 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POPS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH TEMPS. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN UPR LVL LOW ACRS ERN KS EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...OCCLUDED FNT EXTENDED FM THE SFC REFLECTION ACRS NERN KS TO SWRN INDIANA...AND RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A SOLID AREA OF RN SPREADING N AND E ACRS SWRN INDIANA WITH UPSTREAM RN ACRS WRN PARTS OF TN AND KY. WL GO MOSTLY WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN KS SYS AS THE GFS WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER LONG TERM MODELS THAN THE NAM. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OCCASIONAL POPS THE WAY TO GO THIS MRNG. MEANWHILE...DRY SLOT ACRS ERN MO AND AR EXPECTED TO SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WL DROP POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...UPR LOW PROGGED TO MOV INTO NWRN INDIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY. MODEL TIME SECS AND PLAN VIEWS WERE BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THIS EVE WHICH WL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RW`S. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NRN SECTIONS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER 850-500 MB QVEC DVRG ARE FORECASTED. ONE FINAL ROUND OF RW`S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACRS OUR NRN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT MOVE ACRS AS THE UPR LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES ACRS THE ERN GT LKS BY 00Z SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STG CD FNT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. MOS TEMPS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND. && .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE. AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE IL/IND STATE LINE...WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A SLIGHT SHFT EWD WITH TIME. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BAND WL SLOWLY DRFT EWD ACRS THE TERMINALS THRU THE LT MORN HRS ON FRI...ROUGHLY IN THE 240700Z-241600Z TIME FRAME. UA OBS/ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST LTL THREAT OF CONVECTION. DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF LO LVL DRY AIR FM THE E...NOT XPCTG WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS TO DVLP...BUT RATHER BRIEF PDS OF IFR CONDS PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIER PCPN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BAND. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...XPCTG CIGS TO GRADU LWR AND SETTLE TO ARND 015-025 NR THE BACK EDGE OF PCPN AREA...WITH THESE CONDS LINGERING BYD 241800Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAS/CP PUBLIC...MK
