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000 FXUS63 KIND 270603 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 202 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS WL BE ON TEMPS AS AN EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAK INVADES THE GT LKS AND OH VLY TODAY. POPS AND PRECIP TYPE WL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM. AT 06Z...SATELLITE PIX WERE SHOWING CU DECK SPREADING SE ACRS NWRN PARTS OF THE FA. RADAR PIX WERE SHOWING LGT RETURNS AND A FEW OBS SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF S/W EMBEDDED IN THE COLD UPR TROF FM HUDSON BAY TO THE MIDDLE MSP VLY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THEY SLIDE THE UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL INDIANA TODAY. WITH BEST LOW LVL MOISTURE N AND E TODAY...WL GO WITH SLGT POPS THERE. WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT STILL TIGHT TODAY...WOULD EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. MEANWHILE...EMBEDDED IMPULSES...DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LYR WINDS VEERING TO NNW FAVOR SLGT CHC OF PRECIP ACRS XTRM NERN AND ECNTRL ZONES TNGT ENOUGH FOR A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP. BUKFIT FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DARK. CLOUD COVER AND COLD 850 TEMPS AROUND -6 CELSIUS FAVOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BLW MOS TODAY. WL GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING TNGT...ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME SECS AND SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING TNGT MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGH BUT STILL AOB FREEZING. THUS...PREFER THE WARMER MOS TNGT. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND NE TUES AS COLDEST 850 TEMPS SETTLE ACRS THE AREA AS WELL AS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE AND NNW BOUNDARY FLOW...BUT FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE. COLDEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUES NGT AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR AND THE WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT. TEMPS BACK TO OR ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE APPROACHES. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 270600Z TAFS... BRISK NW FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS ROUTES AS STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SATELLITE AND WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SC ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NW FLOW WILL BRING THESE CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NE IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF BY 9-11Z TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AROUND THIS TIME AND THEN CIGS RISING BACK INTO VFR CATEGORY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET. WILL SCATTER SC AT KHUF MONDAY EVENING AND OTHER SITES AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER PLAINS CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ AVIATION...JH/CP PUBLIC...MK
