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000 FXUS63 KIND 250540 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 140 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST WL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS ALONG WITH THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING AN AREA OF RW`S LIFTING NE ACRS ECNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS AM AHEAD OF A SFC TROF ACRS WRN INDIANA AND A DOUBLE BARREL UPR LOW ACRS NERN WI AND NRN IL. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT WITH THE MAJOR PLAYERS THIS TIME AROUND...SO WL LEAN THAT WAY. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS FAVOR REMOVING POPS TODAY AS THE UPR LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES TO THE ERN GT LKS. SATELLITE TRENDS...MODEL RH PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR A MIX OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACRS. THEN...CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS HINT AT BKN-OVC CU N AND SCT-BKN SW. MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND APPEAR TO HANDLE THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA WELL. TNGT...SHOULD START OF MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY HINTS AT AN INCRS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STG CD FNT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SE ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SUNDAY. SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE A BIT AND MODEL TIME SECS AND SOUNDINGS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL THAT 40+ KT GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BEING THE THIRD PERIOD...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED HEADLINES ESP FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SS AND TEMPS JUST BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. WL PULL POPS SUNDAY NGT AS BEST RH REMAINS TO THE N OF THE FA. SFC PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SUNDAY...SO WL KEEP GUSTS TO 30 MPH GOING DURING THE EVE. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND COLDER EARLY IN THE WEEK AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 5220 M BY MONDAY MRNG. && .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHWR ACTVTY SHOULD BE E OF THE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY AFT ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON RADAR LOOPS. OTRW...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST AREAS VFR CIGS 040-050 XPCTD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORN HRS ON SAT. THESE MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT ESP AT KLAF AND KHUF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT FROM DECENT PRES GRADIENT SHUD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING WHERE SKIES GO MO CLR. REMNANT 850MB COLD POCKET LINGERING INTO SAT MORN SUGGESTS THERE WL PROBABLY BE SOME LWR INSTABILITY CLD DVLPMT IN THE 020-030 RANGE BY ABOUT 251500Z. ALSO...MODEL WND PROGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SFC WND GUSTS ARND 20 KTS FM 240-260 HEADINGS AFT 251500Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAS/CP PUBLIC...MK
